StormfanaticInd Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 (edited) Storms now firing in northern Illinois Edited February 27 by StormfanaticInd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 27 Author Share Posted February 27 ILN thoughts Quote .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Main concern for the overnight period is the potential for severe weather as a deepening low pressure system and cold front move into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. For late this afternoon into early this evening, this should be a relative lull in activity. A chance of showers and storms will persist and shift north as a low level jet and its nose get going/become focused across our northern zones. Thereafter, things get interesting. Embedded s/wv energy in the moist and unstable southwest flow aloft will combined with increasing large scale ascent with an approaching mid level trough to produce a cluster or clusters of showers/storms. Given the thermodynamic profiles, instability and shear, these thunderstorms have the potential to be supercells, with rotating updrafts, bringing the threats for large hail, straight line damaging winds, and the potential for a few tornadoes. The key will be watching the PBL and we will need to see how decoupled, or not, the surface will be. Certainly SPC has increased the risk for severe weather across our region due to supercell potential, especially along and south of I-70 and more focused in the Tri-State region. After this cluster or clusters, focus turns to a prefrontal trough with low level focused convergence. This will likely produced a convective line of showers/storms that will likely be QLCS in nature, capable of producing damaging straight line winds and possible tornadoes. All in all, we will go with likely or higher PoPs overnight. Another risk on the table, albeit lower than what has been mentioned is the threat for heavy rainfall and training storms. We are not as wet or soggy as points to our east, so our area may be able to handle some water/runoff. However, if convection lines up just right, a low risk for flooding may occur. Will continue to mention this in the HWO and mainly focused for our southern half CWFA. Finally, it will be breezy to locally windy outside of thunderstorms, producing wind gusts near 40 mph. Will continue with this message in the HWO. Overnight lows will likely occur around sunrise, ranging from the upper 40s west to the lower 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 A lot of clutter on the velocity scans right now. Hard to pinpoint any rotation if it occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Just now, NWOhioChaser said: A lot of clutter on the velocity scans right now. Hard to pinpoint any rotation if it occurs. I'd say for at least the first hour or two of these storms lives there won't be a whole lot of notable rotation, the low level jet hasn't made it's way that far north yet. Big hailers incoming for the next hour or two though! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Closely watching the I-80 corridor and a little southward in northeast IL/northwest IN. The window there will last for about the next 3 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 16 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: I'd say for at least the first hour or two of these storms lives there won't be a whole lot of notable rotation, the low level jet hasn't made it's way that far north yet. Big hailers incoming for the next hour or two though! If we see a strong tornado in the northern mode my money is on favorable cell mergers to get the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 tornado warning, just a couple miles south of I-80 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 7 minutes ago, Chinook said: tornado warning, just a couple miles south of I-80 That cell is a bit of a right mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Well this happened quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Velocity is pretty meh but wow, what a supercell!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 27 Meteorologist Share Posted February 27 Another impressive supercell to the first one's southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Sucks winter was a dud and done. But it's always cool to have @ClicheVortex2014 @Neoncyclone and the crew back in action. Love the way you guys handle severe weather events. It's a spectator sport reading this stuff as far as I'm concerned. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 3 active tornado warnings now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 looks like there's much stronger rotation now at Atkinson Illinois 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 So far cap is holding strong around Central an southern Illinois and Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 tornado could be on I-80 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Wow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 28 Meteorologist Share Posted February 28 (edited) 11 minutes ago, 1816 said: Sucks winter was a dud and done. But it's always cool to have @ClicheVortex2014 @Neoncyclone and the crew back in action. Love the way you guys handle severe weather events. It's a spectator sport reading this stuff as far as I'm concerned. Going in to work early this evening to help out but glad to see you’re all still going strong! Edited February 28 by ClicheVortex2014 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 8 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: So far cap is holding strong around Central an southern Illinois and Indiana Welp 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 3 warnings now, new one just popped up south of DeKalb. The western one was confirmed earlier but cycling now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 28 Meteorologist Share Posted February 28 (edited) The wildfire smoke has arrived. I can smell it inside my apartment. Eerie smell to have inside your place Edited February 28 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 7 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: 3 warnings now, new one just popped up south of DeKalb. The western one was confirmed earlier but cycling now This one is confirmed now, with a CC drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Storms are straight exploding right now has me a bit on edge for late tonight in the Ohio valley 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHValleysnow Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 1 minute ago, OxfordOh_ said: Storms are straight exploding right now has me a bit on edge for late tonight in the Ohio valley I'm with you on that. I was hoping the heavy cloud cover today was going to limit these storms, but doesn't appear to be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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