StormfanaticInd Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 34 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said: Yeah I’m worried about the hail situation more than anything. Could be some good sized ones. Large hail like this could leave a lot of dents in people's cars 😫 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 (edited) Having this feeling like this is a bust before it even began. Seems like one of those days we’re I’m waiting all day and then any storms will be spotty and I get shafted. Not much confidence Edited February 27 by NWOhioChaser 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Wow wasn't really expecting a 10 hatched tornado area but I guess some of those higher end CAM environments must be verifying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 40 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said: Having this feeling like this is a bust before it even began. Seems like one of those days we’re I’m waiting all day and then any storms will be spotty and I get shafted. Not much confidence SPC put out enhanced. As for me, I am fairly confident that some thunderstorms will develop near Chicago, and possibly severe. The other sector of enhanced risk is by the Ohio River. I think will happen close to sunrise. Normally that's not the time of day for severe weather, but wintertime scenarios always throw a wrench in the daylight-dependence. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Recent runs of the HRRR are developing some storms in the southern NWS Chicago cwa toward evening. If they form, this could be a problem, because any storms in that area have a better shot to be surface based compared to farther north in N IL. Not a clear cut evolution with how things will play out in northern IL/IN today. Just have to keep monitoring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 (edited) I was a warm day on March 27 1991 when a large surface low brought up some 60's dew points up to northwest Ohio. As you can see, six tornadoes are listed, just within the confines of this chart. Around the country, 26 tornadoes are listed on SPC's database, along with 198 wind reports and 70 hail reports. One F3 tornado hit Nettle Lake near the OH/MI/IN tri-point and also buzzed through the Boy Scout camp I used to go to as a kid, which is very close by. As the chart says, they also surveyed a second F3 tornado very close by. A month later, I helped out using a power-washer to wash the dirt and sand off the ranger's house and I saw trees down in the forest. Thankfully, I can say that the camp still existed in the summer with relatively minimal damage. As you can see, the 500mb winds were strong enough for a 0-6km shear of about 70 knots. In my general opinion, 60 knots to 70 knots of shear is common among strong tornado outbreaks. Edited February 27 by Chinook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Not often we have a legit dryline setup in the OV. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Low-level winds already starting to rip here in Southern IL, we've gone a good part of the day with decent cloud cover, although the sun has broken out in the last hour. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Checking in hoping for something to track when I get off tonight 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Northern enhanced area also has a 10 hatched tornado area now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 2 minutes ago, Snow____ said: Checking in hoping for something to track when I get off tonight I've warned my oldest daughter about the potential for tonight. She near your area as she goes to UC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Impressive CAPE values around here for this time of year. These would be good a month from now, let alone at the end of February. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted February 27 Moderators Share Posted February 27 Currently sitting at 78 and sunny doesn't look like i'll see anything from this 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Just now, StormfanaticInd said: Mesoscale Discussion 0163 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Areas affected...Northern IL and far northwest IN Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 272050Z - 272245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A few supercells are expected to develop over parts of northwest Illinois and then spread east-northeast across northern Illinois into far northwest Indiana through early evening. Very large hail to around baseball size will be the primary initial threat. A conditional strong tornado scenario may develop later over northeast Illinois into far northwest Indiana. DISCUSSION...20Z subjective surface analysis placed a 990-mb cyclone near the Quad Cities along a pronounced cold front sweeping southeast across the Upper MS to Lower MO Valleys. A bent-back plume of relatively richer surface dew points from the mid to upper 50s lies immediately ahead of this wave, along the northwest periphery of the broader warm-moist sector across the OH Valley and lower Midwest. Within the exit region of an intense mid-level jet shifting east from the southern Great Plains to the Lower OH Valley, continued ascent should yield sufficient weakening of MLCIN during the 22-23Z time frame. Initial storm development is most likely in the immediate vicinity of the surface low. The environment will be favorable for discrete supercells forming despite initially modest low-level shear. Amid very steep mid-level lapse rates, large to very large hail production is expected, with peak intensity around 2 to 3.5 inches possible. The primary uncertainty is with how convection evolves downstream given the relatively narrow warm/moist sector where storms develop. There should be a tendency for convection to spread into a drier boundary layer towards the WI border. It is plausible, within a scenario highlighted by various 12Z MPAS members and occasionally by later WoFS/RRFS/HRRR runs, that a longer-tracked supercell or two may develop into the broader warm-moist sector across northeast IL into far northwest IN. Low-level shear within this region will be increasing towards and after dusk, which will conditionally support potential for a strong tornado into the EF2-EF3 range (peak estimated gusts around 120 to 150 mph). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 27 Meteorologist Share Posted February 27 (edited) 3 active evacuation orders and 1 shelter in place in the Amarillo CWA and a swath of fire warnings. Canadian is not in a good place right now to say the least Edited February 27 by ClicheVortex2014 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Cloud cover is entirely gone now this afternoon, getting 15-20 mph SSW winds, gusts up to 30. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Been cloudy and drizzling here. Doubt much happens other than straight line winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Tornado watch has been issued for parts of IL, IN and far southern WI. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Watch extends almost 50 miles outside of the polygon in some areas. Ultimately the local offices have the final say in which counties are in, so the red outline is all that matters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Starting to see some breaks in the clouds here in Indy👀 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger1989 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 (edited) 15 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Starting to see some breaks in the clouds here in Indy👀 Same here in Seymour. I'm not sure what to make of it this late in the day. Anyway it didn't last long. Edited February 27 by Roger1989 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 9 minutes ago, Roger1989 said: Same here in Seymour. I'm not sure what to make of it this late in the day. Anyway it didn't last long. Parameters are pretty much already in place. Just waiting to see what happens now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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