February 27-29 2024 | Possible Severe Weather

[ElectricStorm]

CAMs can be a bit iffy at this range but if some of these modeled environments verify that would probably be at least 10 hatched worthy. Interested to read the next outlook discussion 

[StormfanaticInd]

There is going to be one heck of a temp drop behind this front accompanied by gusty winds 🥶 

Edited February 26 by StormfanaticInd

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

There is going to be one heck of a temp drop behind this front accompanied by gusty winds 🥶 

Yeah, gonna be quite a slap in the face.  Looks like Tuesday will be in the 70s here, with much of Wednesday in the 20s and wind chills in the teens.

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, ElectricStorm said:

CAMs can be a bit iffy at this range but if some of these modeled environments verify that would probably be at least 10 hatched worthy. Interested to read the next outlook discussion 

One thing I would anticipate is that the western part of the risk area will be trimmed off.  Just not seeing much support for it to be extending so far west.

[Hoosier]

New SPC outlook did trim the western portion.  5% tornado and 15% hatched hail area.

 

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1237 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL
   MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS...INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHERN LOWER
   MICHIGAN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail
   (some near 2 inch diameter), damaging gusts, and a few tornadoes
   will be possible from late Tuesday afternoon, into the evening and
   overnight from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley, and southwestern
   Great Lakes.

   ...Mid-MS Valley/Southwest Great Lakes Vicinity...

   An upper trough over the northern Rockies/Intermountain West will
   shift east on Tuesday, becoming oriented from the Upper MS Valley
   and Mid-MO Valley by Wednesday morning. Fast deep-layer
   southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Ozark
   Plateau into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a low will deepen as
   it shifts east from MN toward southern Ontario. A cold front
   attendant to the low will quickly shift east/southeast across the
   Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley during the afternoon and into the
   overnight period. Initial thunderstorm activity may develop in warm
   advection regime near the quasi-warm front/moisture gradient from
   northern IL into IN/NW OH/southern MI around 21-00z. Additional
   activity will then develop along the cold front as it develops east
   and the main upper wave ejects into the region around 00-03z.

   Warm advection and southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will
   allow for modest airmass modification into the Midwest. However,
   forecast dewpoints are only expected to reach into the 50s to near
   60 F. Nevertheless, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will
   overspread the IL/IN/MI/OH vicinity from afternoon into the evening.
   This will support modest destabilization with MLCAPE generally
   forecast to be less than 1000 J/kg, though a narrow corridor of up
   to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE may be possible for a brief period around 00z.
   Forecast soundings across the region indicate most of available
   instability will be located above the 850-700 mb layer. 

   Initial thunderstorm activity may be slightly elevated as some
   forecast soundings indicate a warm nose between 850-700 mb during
   late afternoon/early evening. Nevertheless, effective shear greater
   than 50 kt, and enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated
   above 3 km indicate initial supercells will be possible near the
   quasi-warm front/moisture gradient from northeast IL into northern
   IN and vicinity. With most instability focused above the 850-700 mb
   layer, and in conjunction with poor boundary-layer dewpoints, the
   tornado risk may be somewhat lower than typically expected given
   shear profiles in the 0-2 km layer. Nevertheless a couple tornadoes
   are possible, especially if greater moisture than forecast can make
   it this far north. Large hail, with a few instances near 2 inch
   diameter, will be possible with any semi-discrete supercells, along
   with damaging gusts. 

   Once linear forcing along the front increases in the 00-03z period,
   a line of storms is forecast to develop east from the Mid-MS Valley
   toward the Lower OH Valley during the nighttime hours. Damaging
   gusts will be the main concern with this activity.

   ..Leitman.. 02/26/2024

[OxfordOh_]

👀

[NWOhioChaser]

Looks like they kind of expanded slight risk into NW Ohio. Not too much but at least it includes Toledo metro more. 

[Hoosier]

Still some uncertainty in the finer details for tomorrow.  NAMs aside, I think I'd rather be farther east in IL as far as convective initiation goes.  

Think it's possible that the greatest severe threat materializes somewhere close by.

[Indygirl]

13 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, gonna be quite a slap in the face.  Looks like Tuesday will be in the 70s here, with much of Wednesday in the 20s and wind chills in the teens.

Great. Looks like some windshield scraping will be in order 🥶 Wednesday morning 

[snowlover2]

They expanded the marginal for today to cover most of Ohio.

[snowlover2]

ILN with a very detailed afternoon AFD.

Quote

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Sunny skies will prevail through the afternoon before some
cirrus approaches from the W toward the evening and beyond.
Amidst the bountiful sunshine, temps have soared into the
mid/upper 60s already, with additional rises on the order of 5
degrees or so possible. This will generally put temps in the
upper 60s to lower 70s for most spots by late afternoon -- about
20 to 25 degrees above seasonal norms.

The main item of interest tonight will be an increase in the
deep-layer wind fields, with a seasonably robust SW LLJ nosing
NE into the OH Vly late tonight. This WAA regime, amidst a
gradually-saturating LL profile, will promote the development
of ISO/SCT convection, initially in EC/SE IN around midnight.
This activity should expand in coverage as it quickly tracks to
the ENE within the increasing steering-layer flow, eventually
spreading through the Tri-State/WC OH and into central OH during
the predawn hours. With relatively cool air aloft and steep
midlevel lapse rates, robust updrafts should lead to quite a bit
of lightning and some hail in the strongest cores. While it may
not be /quite/ enough for severe hail, there should be /some/
smaller hail within this activity (courtesy of cold air aloft
and decent midlevel lapse rates) as it quickly expands through
WC and central OH around 09z. Still a few uncertainties in just
how widespread the coverage will be and whether it will expand
to the S closer to the OH Rvr during this time frame. Nevertheless,
felt confident to go with chance PoPs for areas N of OH Rvr and
likely PoPs in central OH near/prior to daybreak.

Temps tonight will be very warm by seasonal standards, dipping
to the lower 50s in central OH to the upper 50s in the Tri-
State/N KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:
Morning elevated storm activity should decrease in coverage
locally by mid morning and beyond, with a relative lull in
activity late morning through late afternoon. Additional
redevelopment along a surge of LL moisture is possible toward
late afternoon and early evening, especially in WC and central
OH. More robust/intense storm activity will be possible late
evening, overspreading a greater portion of the local area
around midnight into the heart of the overnight period. Greatest
severe threat will exist with this activity late evening into
the first part of the nighttime, with all hazards possible,
especially near I-70 corridor. Severe threat should diminish
with eastward extent late in the night. The cold front, with
additional storms, moves through in the several hour period
around sunrise.

Tue morning/early afternoon: lingering elevated SHRA/TSRA
activity should gradually decrease in coverage locally, with a
lull in activity expected during this time frame as LL moisture
pools across the heart of the ILN FA but a relatively strong
cap, owing to continued WAA aloft) becomes established.
Overcast sky conditions should limit destabilization efforts
through the first part of the afternoon before stronger SW
flow/diurnal mixing helps erode the cloud cover progressively
from SW to NE late in the day.

Tue late afternoon/early evening: Some convective development is
possible coincident with the better LL moisture profile, which
will shift to the N to near I-70 by late afternoon. Some sfc
instby should exist within this northward-moving axis, but
confidence in where exactly this activity develops remains
relatively low, owing to questions about how long the cap holds.
This activity, should it develop, may end up developing /just/
to the N of the ILN FA and expand in coverage late evening as it
pushes further N.

Tue late evening/early overnight: This period presents the most
concern for us locally, especially if storms are able to develop
in the pre-frontal environment along the leading edge of the
pool of best LL moisture across IN in an environment that will
also become increasingly uncapped with a rapid increase in
forcing. Incredible moisture and mass response will be ongoing
across the region by this time period. And this will coincide
with robust LL and deep-layer shear, with a concern for
discrete activity to develop near/after 00z before expanding to
the E rapidly into EC IN and WC OH around 03z. Still some
uncertainty in storm coverage and initiation in this area, but,
should all the ingredients come together, this would be the
primary window for strong/severe storms locally, especially as
it expands E into a larger portion of the local area
around/after midnight. Breezy southerly flow will develop during
this time, too, with sustained winds of 20kts and gusts to
30-35kts possible overnight with the tightening pressure
gradient. The greatest coverage of storms, and therefore the
greatest potential for severe storms as a whole, should evolve
from EC IN into WC OH and parts of central OH through the middle
of the night.

Early Wed morning/afternoon: Convective activity will
develop/expand along the eastward-advancing front, with
indications for a slightly faster progression into the wrn
fringes of the ILN FA as early as 12z before /much/ cooler and
drier air filters in rapidly mid morning into the afternoon.
Widespread SHRA, with some embedded TSRA, will be ongoing around
daybreak Wednesday, with activity shifting E quickly during
this time frame. Some strong wind gusts will be possible with
this quasi-linear activity, especially with the LL bulk shear
vector at about 260 degrees and the source of the lift oriented
more out of the SSW. Some post-frontal SHRA may linger a few
hours behind the sfc front itself. Gusty westerly winds to
30-35kts are expected Wed morning into the afternoon in the
post-frontal environment as LL mixing increases. A non-diurnal
temp trace is expected Wednesday as temps fall from morning
highs in the 60s to afternoon temps in the 30s.

 

[ak9971]

That AFD was a great read. Seems like some very high end potential, but also some potential for low end storms. Regardless, wild pattern for February.

[StormfanaticInd]

 

 

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, Indygirl said:

Great. Looks like some windshield scraping will be in order 🥶 Wednesday morning 

That's what garages are for.  

[ClicheVortex2014]

Meanwhile... really bad day for fires here in the Texas Panhandle. (black spots are fires.)  Gonna be worse conditions tomorrow. Today was a high-end wind advisory day... tomorrow is a high wind warning day.

Edited February 27 by ClicheVortex2014

[snowlover2]

0z HRRR. Pretty incredible dry line.

[OxfordOh_]

16 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

0z HRRR. Pretty incredible dry line.

Looks like some potential training of storms down here in sw Ohio? 

[ClicheVortex2014]

35 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Meanwhile... really bad day for fires here in the Texas Panhandle. (black spots are fires.)  Gonna be worse conditions tomorrow. Today was a high-end wind advisory day... tomorrow is a high wind warning day.

Now the city of Canadian, Texas is under a fire warning

REQUESTED BY TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
805 PM CST MON FEB 26 2024

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A
FIRE WARNING AT THE REQUEST OF TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE FOR
NORTHWESTERN HEMPHILL AND EASTERN ROBERTS COUNTIES.

* AT 805 PM CST...A DANGEROUS WILDFIRE WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF
  CANADIAN ...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF MIAMI...MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AT 3
  TO 5 MPH.

* AREAS IMPACTED...ROBERTS AND HEMPHILL COUNTIES INCLUDING
  THE CITY OF CANADIAN AND HIGHWAY 83 AND 60.

* ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...SMOKE AND FIRE WILL PRESENT A THREAT TO
  LIFE AND PROPERTY FOR THE CITY OF CANADIAN AND HIGHWAY 83 AND 60.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE QUICKLY IF REQUESTED AND FOLLOW ALL SAFETY
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. DO NOT DRIVE
INTO SMOKE.

 

[NWOhioChaser]

Reed Timmer’s latest thinking is a capped atmosphere for most of the day in Indiana. So not looking good for them and most of Ohio side of the threat. Probably will have storms move northeast from there over the Lake into Michigan is what I feel like what will happen. I don’t think my neck of the woods will see much of anything if that is to occur. 

Edited February 27 by NWOhioChaser

[ElectricStorm]

To me it's starting to look more like a hail event rather than tornadoes. I could potentially see an upgrade to enhanced for 30 hatched hail but it looks borderline. Could still see a couple tors though so I think the 5% area looks fine. 

Of course there's also a chance the cap holds and not much ends up happening...

Edited February 27 by ElectricStorm

[OxfordOh_]

CSU still trying to show the highest threat near the Ohio river 

[OxfordOh_]

🤔

[ElectricStorm]

Still slight for now