ElectricStorm Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 CAMs can be a bit iffy at this range but if some of these modeled environments verify that would probably be at least 10 hatched worthy. Interested to read the next outlook discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 (edited) There is going to be one heck of a temp drop behind this front accompanied by gusty winds 🥶 Edited February 26 by StormfanaticInd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: There is going to be one heck of a temp drop behind this front accompanied by gusty winds 🥶 Yeah, gonna be quite a slap in the face. Looks like Tuesday will be in the 70s here, with much of Wednesday in the 20s and wind chills in the teens. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 2 hours ago, ElectricStorm said: CAMs can be a bit iffy at this range but if some of these modeled environments verify that would probably be at least 10 hatched worthy. Interested to read the next outlook discussion One thing I would anticipate is that the western part of the risk area will be trimmed off. Just not seeing much support for it to be extending so far west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 New SPC outlook did trim the western portion. 5% tornado and 15% hatched hail area. Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS...INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail (some near 2 inch diameter), damaging gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible from late Tuesday afternoon, into the evening and overnight from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley, and southwestern Great Lakes. ...Mid-MS Valley/Southwest Great Lakes Vicinity... An upper trough over the northern Rockies/Intermountain West will shift east on Tuesday, becoming oriented from the Upper MS Valley and Mid-MO Valley by Wednesday morning. Fast deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Ozark Plateau into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a low will deepen as it shifts east from MN toward southern Ontario. A cold front attendant to the low will quickly shift east/southeast across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley during the afternoon and into the overnight period. Initial thunderstorm activity may develop in warm advection regime near the quasi-warm front/moisture gradient from northern IL into IN/NW OH/southern MI around 21-00z. Additional activity will then develop along the cold front as it develops east and the main upper wave ejects into the region around 00-03z. Warm advection and southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for modest airmass modification into the Midwest. However, forecast dewpoints are only expected to reach into the 50s to near 60 F. Nevertheless, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the IL/IN/MI/OH vicinity from afternoon into the evening. This will support modest destabilization with MLCAPE generally forecast to be less than 1000 J/kg, though a narrow corridor of up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE may be possible for a brief period around 00z. Forecast soundings across the region indicate most of available instability will be located above the 850-700 mb layer. Initial thunderstorm activity may be slightly elevated as some forecast soundings indicate a warm nose between 850-700 mb during late afternoon/early evening. Nevertheless, effective shear greater than 50 kt, and enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 3 km indicate initial supercells will be possible near the quasi-warm front/moisture gradient from northeast IL into northern IN and vicinity. With most instability focused above the 850-700 mb layer, and in conjunction with poor boundary-layer dewpoints, the tornado risk may be somewhat lower than typically expected given shear profiles in the 0-2 km layer. Nevertheless a couple tornadoes are possible, especially if greater moisture than forecast can make it this far north. Large hail, with a few instances near 2 inch diameter, will be possible with any semi-discrete supercells, along with damaging gusts. Once linear forcing along the front increases in the 00-03z period, a line of storms is forecast to develop east from the Mid-MS Valley toward the Lower OH Valley during the nighttime hours. Damaging gusts will be the main concern with this activity. ..Leitman.. 02/26/2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 👀 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Looks like they kind of expanded slight risk into NW Ohio. Not too much but at least it includes Toledo metro more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Still some uncertainty in the finer details for tomorrow. NAMs aside, I think I'd rather be farther east in IL as far as convective initiation goes. Think it's possible that the greatest severe threat materializes somewhere close by. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indygirl Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 13 hours ago, Hoosier said: Yeah, gonna be quite a slap in the face. Looks like Tuesday will be in the 70s here, with much of Wednesday in the 20s and wind chills in the teens. Great. Looks like some windshield scraping will be in order 🥶 Wednesday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 26 Author Share Posted February 26 They expanded the marginal for today to cover most of Ohio. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 26 Author Share Posted February 26 ILN with a very detailed afternoon AFD. Quote .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Sunny skies will prevail through the afternoon before some cirrus approaches from the W toward the evening and beyond. Amidst the bountiful sunshine, temps have soared into the mid/upper 60s already, with additional rises on the order of 5 degrees or so possible. This will generally put temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s for most spots by late afternoon -- about 20 to 25 degrees above seasonal norms. The main item of interest tonight will be an increase in the deep-layer wind fields, with a seasonably robust SW LLJ nosing NE into the OH Vly late tonight. This WAA regime, amidst a gradually-saturating LL profile, will promote the development of ISO/SCT convection, initially in EC/SE IN around midnight. This activity should expand in coverage as it quickly tracks to the ENE within the increasing steering-layer flow, eventually spreading through the Tri-State/WC OH and into central OH during the predawn hours. With relatively cool air aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates, robust updrafts should lead to quite a bit of lightning and some hail in the strongest cores. While it may not be /quite/ enough for severe hail, there should be /some/ smaller hail within this activity (courtesy of cold air aloft and decent midlevel lapse rates) as it quickly expands through WC and central OH around 09z. Still a few uncertainties in just how widespread the coverage will be and whether it will expand to the S closer to the OH Rvr during this time frame. Nevertheless, felt confident to go with chance PoPs for areas N of OH Rvr and likely PoPs in central OH near/prior to daybreak. Temps tonight will be very warm by seasonal standards, dipping to the lower 50s in central OH to the upper 50s in the Tri- State/N KY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages: Morning elevated storm activity should decrease in coverage locally by mid morning and beyond, with a relative lull in activity late morning through late afternoon. Additional redevelopment along a surge of LL moisture is possible toward late afternoon and early evening, especially in WC and central OH. More robust/intense storm activity will be possible late evening, overspreading a greater portion of the local area around midnight into the heart of the overnight period. Greatest severe threat will exist with this activity late evening into the first part of the nighttime, with all hazards possible, especially near I-70 corridor. Severe threat should diminish with eastward extent late in the night. The cold front, with additional storms, moves through in the several hour period around sunrise. Tue morning/early afternoon: lingering elevated SHRA/TSRA activity should gradually decrease in coverage locally, with a lull in activity expected during this time frame as LL moisture pools across the heart of the ILN FA but a relatively strong cap, owing to continued WAA aloft) becomes established. Overcast sky conditions should limit destabilization efforts through the first part of the afternoon before stronger SW flow/diurnal mixing helps erode the cloud cover progressively from SW to NE late in the day. Tue late afternoon/early evening: Some convective development is possible coincident with the better LL moisture profile, which will shift to the N to near I-70 by late afternoon. Some sfc instby should exist within this northward-moving axis, but confidence in where exactly this activity develops remains relatively low, owing to questions about how long the cap holds. This activity, should it develop, may end up developing /just/ to the N of the ILN FA and expand in coverage late evening as it pushes further N. Tue late evening/early overnight: This period presents the most concern for us locally, especially if storms are able to develop in the pre-frontal environment along the leading edge of the pool of best LL moisture across IN in an environment that will also become increasingly uncapped with a rapid increase in forcing. Incredible moisture and mass response will be ongoing across the region by this time period. And this will coincide with robust LL and deep-layer shear, with a concern for discrete activity to develop near/after 00z before expanding to the E rapidly into EC IN and WC OH around 03z. Still some uncertainty in storm coverage and initiation in this area, but, should all the ingredients come together, this would be the primary window for strong/severe storms locally, especially as it expands E into a larger portion of the local area around/after midnight. Breezy southerly flow will develop during this time, too, with sustained winds of 20kts and gusts to 30-35kts possible overnight with the tightening pressure gradient. The greatest coverage of storms, and therefore the greatest potential for severe storms as a whole, should evolve from EC IN into WC OH and parts of central OH through the middle of the night. Early Wed morning/afternoon: Convective activity will develop/expand along the eastward-advancing front, with indications for a slightly faster progression into the wrn fringes of the ILN FA as early as 12z before /much/ cooler and drier air filters in rapidly mid morning into the afternoon. Widespread SHRA, with some embedded TSRA, will be ongoing around daybreak Wednesday, with activity shifting E quickly during this time frame. Some strong wind gusts will be possible with this quasi-linear activity, especially with the LL bulk shear vector at about 260 degrees and the source of the lift oriented more out of the SSW. Some post-frontal SHRA may linger a few hours behind the sfc front itself. Gusty westerly winds to 30-35kts are expected Wed morning into the afternoon in the post-frontal environment as LL mixing increases. A non-diurnal temp trace is expected Wednesday as temps fall from morning highs in the 60s to afternoon temps in the 30s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 That AFD was a great read. Seems like some very high end potential, but also some potential for low end storms. Regardless, wild pattern for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 3 hours ago, Indygirl said: Great. Looks like some windshield scraping will be in order 🥶 Wednesday morning That's what garages are for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 27 Meteorologist Share Posted February 27 (edited) Meanwhile... really bad day for fires here in the Texas Panhandle. (black spots are fires.) Gonna be worse conditions tomorrow. Today was a high-end wind advisory day... tomorrow is a high wind warning day. Edited February 27 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 27 Author Share Posted February 27 0z HRRR. Pretty incredible dry line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 16 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: 0z HRRR. Pretty incredible dry line. Looks like some potential training of storms down here in sw Ohio? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 27 Meteorologist Share Posted February 27 35 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Meanwhile... really bad day for fires here in the Texas Panhandle. (black spots are fires.) Gonna be worse conditions tomorrow. Today was a high-end wind advisory day... tomorrow is a high wind warning day. Now the city of Canadian, Texas is under a fire warning REQUESTED BY TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 805 PM CST MON FEB 26 2024 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A FIRE WARNING AT THE REQUEST OF TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE FOR NORTHWESTERN HEMPHILL AND EASTERN ROBERTS COUNTIES. * AT 805 PM CST...A DANGEROUS WILDFIRE WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF CANADIAN ...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF MIAMI...MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AT 3 TO 5 MPH. * AREAS IMPACTED...ROBERTS AND HEMPHILL COUNTIES INCLUDING THE CITY OF CANADIAN AND HIGHWAY 83 AND 60. * ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...SMOKE AND FIRE WILL PRESENT A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FOR THE CITY OF CANADIAN AND HIGHWAY 83 AND 60. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE QUICKLY IF REQUESTED AND FOLLOW ALL SAFETY INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. DO NOT DRIVE INTO SMOKE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 (edited) Reed Timmer’s latest thinking is a capped atmosphere for most of the day in Indiana. So not looking good for them and most of Ohio side of the threat. Probably will have storms move northeast from there over the Lake into Michigan is what I feel like what will happen. I don’t think my neck of the woods will see much of anything if that is to occur. Edited February 27 by NWOhioChaser 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 (edited) To me it's starting to look more like a hail event rather than tornadoes. I could potentially see an upgrade to enhanced for 30 hatched hail but it looks borderline. Could still see a couple tors though so I think the 5% area looks fine. Of course there's also a chance the cap holds and not much ends up happening... Edited February 27 by ElectricStorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 CSU still trying to show the highest threat near the Ohio river 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 🤔 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Still slight for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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