Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Pghsnow said:

https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/15371/2016/

School Chromebook does not like this link -_-

[Psu1313]

3 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

What did 2016 feature with the earliest final warming? 

Spring was warm and wet across the US with the exception of the northeast which was warm and dry. When I say that the spring was warm, I mean that every single state had above average temps. There is a big difference though in that 2016 was a near record El NiNO winding down, this is year 3 of La Niña.

[Al_Czervik]

5 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

I keep telling people this winter has been the equivalent of a summer where the temp never gets above 60 degrees except for a handful of days. It's just absolutely crazy. 

That would be 1992, not sure if it was that cold but it was very cool and wet.

[so_whats_happening]

6 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

I'm on there too. PlanetMaster is a bit overboard with his antics but unfortunately I think he's correct regarding winter, and this year proves it. I don't remember writing winter off in November, but I guess I wasn't necessarily wrong in doing so if I did!

Im sorry but one year does not prove much. Next year we could have an extremely snowy winter or none at all but the odds are usually it will still snow even down in my area. Now does that mean we hit average probably not every year. I feel our average has been swayed quite a bit in winters with large storms but on average we see about 2 feet of snow here (maybe a smidge more). We can't have continual winters of 3-4 feet of snow in a season around here the probabilities of the continuation are really low just like having a continuation of low snowfall winters is rather low going forward.

The trend is still toward rather snowy winters compared to average due to increased moisture potential. Whether we see snow or not will have to be determined as each storm closes in.

Btw La Ninas are never good for the immediate coast it is just a thing, weak ones tend to be an exception or just starting into a Nina pattern can sometimes yield good results. The best case scenario for much of the NE and even mid atlantic is typically a weak El nino or neutral state. Then we rely on the other aspects (NAO, PNA, PDO, WPO, etc).

The SSTs are probably the biggest issue with our battle ground situation. Look at just how much over the past decade the Atlantic is overall warmer. We use to have a solid Labrador current but that doesn't seem to be much of a thing anymore. We tended to have atleast cool anomalies mixed in with the warm eddies along the gulf stream current well not so much seemingly. That is a huge issue more positive anoms means better chance of ridging to occur.

I quoted these so my post was not outrageous. 2009-10, 2011-12, 2015-16, 2019-20, and current SST anoms.

Quote

 

[Iceresistance]

On this day in February 2021: Cold and Snowy

 

On this day in February 2023:

 

[so_whats_happening]

Biggest indication so far as to we may be finally moving away from the La Nina is the actual presence of a solid MJO wave. It is moving rather fast but still a coherent wave is finally taking hold. The waters have warmed again through much of Indonesia and still remain cool through 8-1-2. So we may crash the wave again around 7/8 but we may be able to squeak out some fun if we can keep an area of sinking across the Indonesia/ Australia region as we move toward spring.

We also seem to have a Kelvin Wave associated with this MJO progression. Let see if it can finally shakeup the subsurface. 

[MaineJay]

16 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

I'm on there too. PlanetMaster is a bit overboard with his antics but unfortunately I think he's correct regarding winter, and this year proves it. I don't remember writing winter off in November, but I guess I wasn't necessarily wrong in doing so if I did!

Most folks south of (very) roughly 42°N probably see very high variability in winter.  I'd wager that even in good winters, it's a 2-3 week period of snow and cold that defines a "good winter" for these areas.  We tend to romanticize the past, whether that be just how cold and snowy it was,  how big the storms were, or how accurate the "old school" meteorologists were.   Anecdotal evidence is shaky at best.

   Now, is a warmer climate going to put a finger on the scale?  I'd say most definitely, sometimes more than other times, but it doesn't mean the end of winter as we know it.  Arctic outbreaks will still happen, as well January thaws. Will they become more disproportionate in the future? Likely, but how is distributed will evolve over time, as it always has.   

  The ocean is constantly moving heat around, yearly and decadal changes in sea ice cover alter jet stream patterns. Does climate change have an effect on these?  I have no doubt, but how these effects manifest daily, weekly, monthly, and seasonally are much more complex than simply, "it's warmer"

  Using the most recent event to "prove" something is by definition, recency bias.  I'd be cautious, and shy away from these types of definitive arguments, as they tend not to age well.  Too much year to year variation, just look at winter 2014-15 compared to 2015-16.

   And a disclaimer, I chose to live where I do too ensure a more reliable winter in the face of climate change, so please don't mistake where I'm coming from.  I prefer to separate most of my climate views from tracking weather.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, MaineJay said:

 

  And a disclaimer, I chose to live where I do too ensure a more reliable winter in the face of climate change

Same with me actually...born and raised near Mammoth Lakes, CA and relocated here in part due to my love of cold weather. That's why this winter has irked me so much. 

[TheComet]

2 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Same with me actually...born and raised near Mammoth Lakes, CA and relocated here in part due to my love of cold weather. That's why this winter has irked me so much. 

Relocated where? Your profile info does not mention location if I'm looking things right. Thanks.

Edited February 15, 2023 by TheComet

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, TheComet said:

Relocated where? Your profile info does not mention location if I'm looking things right. Thanks.

Sorry, I'll update that. I'm just West of Milwaukee, WI

[Ohiobuckeye45]

still fascinated we went through 4-5-6 and basically 7 within 10 days. We look to actually stallout a bit in 8 which for FEB is best case scenario. Starting to see this possibly reflected in the regional threads popping up

[TheComet]

12 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Sorry, I'll update that. I'm just West of Milwaukee, WI

No problem, thanks. If WUnderground is to be trusted, things will turn more wintry for Milwaukee starting tomorrow, https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/wi/milwaukee. I believe they use ensembles for their forecasts, but don't quote me on it.

[Guest]

26 minutes ago, TheComet said:

No problem, thanks. If WUnderground is to be trusted, things will turn more wintry for Milwaukee starting tomorrow, https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/wi/milwaukee. I believe they use ensembles for their forecasts, but don't quote me on it.

Yeah this looks like the best, most sustained stretch of weather we've had all winter for sure. 

[RobB]

2/15 12Z NAEFS:

 

[TLChip]

2 hours ago, RobB said:

2/15 12Z NAEFS:

 

I’m not in the red!?!?

[Pghsnow]

Judah Cohen blog on SSW

Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

So, if the model forecasts are correct (always a big if beyond a week) then the upcoming major SSW of late February and early March 2023 would be as far as I know the first documented hybrid SSW where first there is wave reflection and then followed by further absorption and downward influence or stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the classical sense.  This understanding is not trivial in my estimation because wave reflection was thought to protect the PV from upwelling wave energy and allow a relatively quick recovery and according to Kodera prevent coupling to the surface.  But here we (the readers of the blog) might be witnessing in real time something that I believe Kodera did not consider - a reflecting SSW (using his terminology) that evolves into an absorbing SSW with full stratosphere-troposphere coupling. Of course, it hasn’t happened yet but from what I can tell every model is predicting this very scenario.

So what are the tangible impacts to our weather if I am correct.  The general warm Eurasia/cold North America pattern seems to be of fairly high confidence to me, though I do wonder if the warm Eurasia might be overdone.  Then if the longer-range models are correct, then the SSW should make its influence on the tropospheric circulation more strongly felt.  This would likely include Greenland blocking with lower geopotential heights across the mid-Atlantic North Atlantic sector extending from the Eastern US to Europe.  Temperatures should turn colder in Europe and even possibly the Eastern US, though the Southeastern US ridge seems to have become a permanent feature of the atmosphere.  So if the winter is all about the PV stretch, the spring could be all about the major SSW.

But even without seeing a direct line of the negative NAM or positive PCH anomalies from the stratosphere to the surface we can already see the influence of the PV disruption or stratosphere-troposphere coupling.  The PV center in the mid-stratosphere is predicted to slide over towards northwest Russia and underneath the PV center the models are predicting a trough in the mid-troposphere, something I refer to in the past as a tropospheric reflection of the PV center above.  If more classical stratosphere coupling does occur including Greenland blocking, it will be interesting to see if that trough deepens and even becomes a closed mid-troposphere low associated with a turn to more wintry weather conditions across Northern Europe and/or Western Asia.

Wednesday Update

Tomorrow is predicted to be the central date of our first major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) since 2021.  Seems to be an event that garners excitement, though it’s actual impact on our weather is a bit nebulous.  The SSW in February 2018 was followed by subsequent impactful winter weather in Europe (the “Beast from the East”) and the Eastern US (four nor’easters in a row) that pique many weather-enthusiasts’ interest on both sides of the Atlantic.  But the 2018 SSW was followed by the two major SSWs in 2019 and 2021, that were impactful (especially 2021) but less so in Europe and the Eastern US.

In addition, I was excited to share the blog where I discuss that the SSW begins as a reflective event and then is predicted to morph or transition into an absorptive event and I would appreciate receiving feedback from readers.  At least based on my experience and recollection this seems to be an unusual event and begs for an explanation.  The implication of such an understanding is that though clearly the relative cold temperatures are predicted to be focused at first mostly in Canada and the Western US, the cold could eventually spread to Europe and/or the Eastern US.  Though like I joked on Monday, the resilience of the Southeastern US ridge, certainly this winter but even the previous two, is impressive.  And just maybe it will take El Niño to finally get an Eastern US. trough that can last more than a day.

 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Pghsnow

[MaineJay]

2 hours ago, TLChip said:

I’m not in the red!?!?

 

[NWOhioChaser]

On 2/13/2023 at 10:26 AM, Iceresistance said:

We're in the "Fools Spring" period, followed by the "2nd Winter"

After that, it's in the "Spring of Deception", followed by the "3rd Winter"

After the 3rd Winter, were finally in "True Spring"

And two weeks after True Spring, we bolt into Relentless Summer.

[RobB]

2/16 0Z NAEFS 

[Cary67]

22 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Sorry, I'll update that. I'm just West of Milwaukee, WI

Your looking decent for today's system. May have mixing issues by me. MKE calling for 4-7"

Edited February 16, 2023 by Cary67

[Hiramite]

Looking backwards.    Ouch.

[RobB]

1 minute ago, Hiramite said:

Looking backwards.    Ouch.

Pretty wild!

 

Despite that, I had two work snow days.  Efficient use of the snows that we did get 🙂

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Cary67 said:

Your looking decent for today's system. May have mixing issues by me. MKE calling for 4-7"

The forecast is even more in my neck of the woods - up to 10". I'm guessing we'll be on the lower end of the forecast range though. 

[Guest]

28 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Looking backwards.    Ouch.

Interesting that most of the positive anomalies are in the Rockies, yet Lake Mead continues to diminish. 

[RobB]

1 minute ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Interesting that most of the positive anomalies are in the Rockies, yet Lake Mead continues to diminish. 

Hopefully more helpful when we get into actual melt season.