Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[RobB]

2/14 0Z NAEFS 

[HVSNOWSTORM]

3 hours ago, RobB said:

2/14 0Z NAEFS 

Slowly getting out of the reds 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

Slowly getting out of the reds 

Just in time for Spring...

[Iceresistance]

21 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Just in time for Spring...

Nope! The 2nd Winter!

[Psu1313]

The talk about NAO is correct, but the story is a bit more complex. By the looks of things we could set up an east based NAO regime, but with a -PNA. That would lead to a focus on cold and snow through the Plains and Midwest. To STL’s point cold can and will bleed east, but the likelihood is that colder periods would be interspersed for the East and I wouldn’t bet on widespread snows in those areas where climatology is beginning to become a factor. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

yup, this would halt anything sustained from coming east, that's complete alignment on deeply negative PNA

 

 

Edited February 14, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Guest]

45 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Nope! The 2nd Winter!

Can't have 2nd winter without 1st winter, lol

[TLChip]

What’s winter? East is still waiting 😅

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, TLChip said:

What’s winter? East is still waiting 😅

Could possibly be a thing of the past for anybody south of I-80. Marginal for those north of it. 

[TLChip]

5 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Could possibly be a thing of the past for anybody south of I-80. Marginal for those north of it. 

Last real snowpack I remember was February of 2021.. we got a big 20 incher around the 1st and a few small ones but it stayed cold throughout the month and I didn’t see the grass till March. 

[Al_Czervik]

26 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Could possibly be a thing of the past for anybody south of I-80. Marginal for those north of it. 

Those north of I-80 will have a colder March.   I see some snow potential sticking around.

[Guest]

Just now, Al_Czervik said:

Those north of I-80 will have a colder March.   I see some snow potential sticking around.

I mean winter in general is a thing of the past for those south of I-80. Those of us north of it will have some years with a winter, and some years like this one where we don't have one. 

[TLChip]

11 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

I mean winter in general is a thing of the past for those south of I-80. Those of us north of it will have some years with a winter, and some years like this one where we don't have one. 

South of I-80 was never a snow zone, we just happen to see a few monster storms that buff our averages. I believe IMBY average snowfall is like 25-35 inches. That’s one storm sometimes. 

This isn’t the first year it’s been snowless (3” total?) but the temp anom + is huge. Most of the east problems came from the West storms. There’s really no where else for things to happen with that setup. 
 

I feel bad for anyone above I-80 this year, especially the mountains of the NE. If it wasn’t for those few storms in late Jan it would be terrible for them. 

Edited February 14, 2023 by TLChip

[Guest]

1 minute ago, TLChip said:

This isn’t the first year it’s been snowless (3” total?) but the temp anom + is huge. 

I keep telling people this winter has been the equivalent of a summer where the temp never gets above 60 degrees except for a handful of days. It's just absolutely crazy. 

[SNOWBOB11]

24 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

I mean winter in general is a thing of the past for those south of I-80. Those of us north of it will have some years with a winter, and some years like this one where we don't have one. 

Do you come on here just to spout doom and gloom and push the it’s never going to be winter again thing? I literally never see you comment if there’s cold or snow.

You wrote off winter from November and now your writing off winter forever for some? You might be better off on the wxdisco forum.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

Do you come on here just to spout doom and gloom and push the it’s never going to be winter again thing? I literally never see you comment if there’s cold or snow.

You wrote off winter from November and now your writing off winter forever for some? You might be better off on the wxdisco forum.

I'm on there too. PlanetMaster is a bit overboard with his antics but unfortunately I think he's correct regarding winter, and this year proves it. I don't remember writing winter off in November, but I guess I wasn't necessarily wrong in doing so if I did!

[JDClapper]

4 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

I'm on there too. PlanetMaster is a bit overboard with his antics but unfortunately I think he's correct regarding winter, and this year proves it. I don't remember writing winter off in November, but I guess I wasn't necessarily wrong in doing so if I did!

Cool, thanks.

[RobB]

2/14 12Z NAEFS:

[TLChip]

One year, where the West Coast gets rocked by QPF means winter is over for the East forever? 🤪.

Almost every metric/tele went against us all year, most here agreed tracking storms it was thread the needle or rain. We threaded 0 needles so far… maybe a half loop. 

[Iceresistance]

2 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

yup, this would halt anything sustained from coming east, that's complete alignment on deeply negative PNA

 

 

I would be really scared of this during the spring...

[Iceresistance]

2 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Can't have 2nd winter without 1st winter, lol

the 1st Winter has already passed, it whizzed by earlier this month and in January.

[Pghsnow]

 

[Pghsnow]

Larry Cosgrove -An Arctic motherlode builds in Canada. But is it going to move into the U.S.?

The short answer is yes, but the longer description is both complicated and unnerving. Many of you probably saw the6z operational GFS scheme and the 0z GGEM ensemble platform. Those predictions were very emphatic about the broad cAk domain north of the border overspreading most of the lower 48 states in the last week of the month. Others, not wanting any part of a bullish transition to March, might have held tight that the see-no-cold American and European variant series has the right solution. But be careful with that line of thought. When presented with a sprawling cAk gyre at a time when the sun angle is increasing rapidly, two scenarios usually occur. One is that the 500MB vortex, much like its companion stratospheric circulation two weeks ago, will split into three or four closed lows. One of these systems might trigger an intense surface storm, and draw down about 96 hours worth of bitter cold values into the U.S. The other situation that may arise is when a stronger subtropical jet stream taps into energy and a cold pool with the higher latitude feature, and you have one wild precipitation and cold advection event that affects nearly everyone in North America in some way. I am leaning toward that second "what if" situation at some point from the middle of next week into the first few days of March. It may well be that Florida and the Gulf Coast dodges the "Arctic bullet". But I am reasonably confident that we are going to see a memorable weather event involving heavy precipitation, wind and sharp temperature drops starting in California through the East Coast in the 11-15 day period.

[Iceresistance]

19 minutes ago, Pghsnow said:

 

What did 2016 feature with the earliest final warming? 

[Pghsnow]

1 minute ago, Iceresistance said:

What did 2016 feature with the earliest final warming? 

https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/15371/2016/