Guest Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Looks like we're making our full (very very fast) trek through phases 4-5-6 of the MJO the next 10 days. Then as we enter phases 7-8 we stall out, that's where I'll be waiting for another bout of winter. Crazy how fast we swing through 4-6 That's good - those phases are normally where it stalls out. If my ice can withstand next week's absurd temperatures, maybe we'll make it to March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 (edited) 43 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: That's good - those phases are normally where it stalls out. If my ice can withstand next week's absurd temperatures, maybe we'll make it to March! Not just saying this because its the new normal, but I really do think we're headed for another cold (at least start/middle) March This winter has absolutely flown by, it feels like just yesterday everyone got joined back up on here and here we are close to mid February Edited February 6, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, HateWinterWarmth said: That's good - those phases are normally where it stalls out. If my ice can withstand next week's absurd temperatures, maybe we'll make it to March! It could happen, but I’m really not seeing it. We would really need the Pacific to change to create the impact you’re anticipating. Do I think we will have another week to two week span of below normal temps? Yes. Otherwise though, This looks like an early spring to me for the east, say east of the Mississippi and south of I80 Edited February 6, 2023 by Psu1313 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 21 minutes ago, Psu1313 said: It could happen, but I’m really not seeing it. We would really need the Pacific to change to create the impact you’re anticipating. Do I think we will have another week to two week span of below normal temps? Yes. Otherwise though, This looks like an early spring to me for the east, say east of the Mississippi and south of I80 The early spring could factor into more Severe Weather since Dixie Alley usually has the first peak between March and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 16 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Not just saying this because its the new normal, but I really do think we're headed for another cold (at least start/middle) March This winter has absolutely flown by, it feels like just yesterday everyone got joined back up on here and here we are close to mid February Along those cold March possibly April scenarios. Could be two more months of the same weather we've had here the last three months. 🤦♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, Cary67 said: Along those cold March possibly April scenarios. Could be two more months of the same weather we've had here the last three months. 🤦♂️ Another year we can blame the "winter warmth" lovers on another dismal start to spring 😄 (or START of winter? lol) Edited February 7, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 (edited) Edited February 7, 2023 by Iceresistance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Not saying it won’t happen but this obsession some have with a SSW is getting a bit silly. They start calling for it from early winter until the end and it often doesn’t occur. Again not saying it won’t this time but wait for it to actually get going before touting it’s arrival. Plus it’s not always necessarily to have a SSW for below normal temperatures to emerge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wally Ho Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Needed a chuckle so I looked at the “replies” to Bastardi’s tweet. 😂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 (edited) Edited February 7, 2023 by Pghsnow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2/7 12Z NAEFS doing its best Ground Hog Day 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 I think this guy gives a good breakdown of SSW A new and stronger warming event is developing in the Stratosphere, which will collapse the polar circulation. As a result, a so-called Sudden Stratospheric Warming event is now forecast to displace the Polar Vortex and potentially shake the weather patterns in the coming weeks. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/sudden-stratospheric-warming-polar-vortex-collapse-effect-forecast-february-march-united-states-europe-fa/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Still above averages show on the 2/8 12Z NAEFS yet, not so menacing looking 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 So...we go from a crappy, warm pattern straight to suppression depression snowfall along the Gulf Coast - got it💩😂 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 So the SSW is happening, but as always the million dollar question becomes where does the cold land. I have 99% confidence given the time of year, it will be in the US lol. March is the new January 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 9, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 9, 2023 6 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: So the SSW is happening, but as always the million dollar question becomes where does the cold land. I have 99% confidence given the time of year, it will be in the US lol. March is the new January I think it'll just amplify the prevailing pattern. Dump west, with summer bleeding east. Maybe one, or two brief cold blasts that come through. Nothing has really displaced the subtropical ridging over the Caribbean and GOMEX all winter, so that's going to have to be contended with. That said, the battle between these two theoretical factors could set up a baroclinic zone, and have the potential to fuel a couple big storms. Though, I wouldn't wager on track. The pessimists will be say they'll be cutters, but I'd leave the door open to a wide range possibilities. Temps will be predicated largely on where there is snow on the ground. March suns ability to warm will be affected by surface albedo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 9, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 9, 2023 On 2/7/2023 at 1:11 PM, SNOWBOB11 said: Not saying it won’t happen but this obsession some have with a SSW is getting a bit silly. They start calling for it from early winter until the end and it often doesn’t occur. Again not saying it won’t this time but wait for it to actually get going before touting it’s arrival. Plus it’s not always necessarily to have a SSW for below normal temperatures to emerge. I liken this to trying to count cards at a blackjack table. A SSW increases the odds of arctic intrusions, but they aren't a guarantee. However, it's one of a few indicators that one could make a future cold bet on. So when they show up, it's tempting to throw the red meat to the lions, especially when the lions haven't had much snow, er, I mean meat. It's folks trying to be the first to call it, nature of the beast. As some are more prone to winter weather "premature prognostication". 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 The day 9-10 cold shot appears to be short lived again, (and unassociated to any SSW talk btw) but perhaps just a reminder winter is still around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulaman984 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 (edited) 13 minutes ago, RobB said: Edited February 9, 2023 by Mulaman984 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 2/9 0Z NAEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Well, exactly 10 days after we managed to put the ice shanty on the lake, we had to take it back off last night ahead of the week of 40's and rain coming our way. Worst winter in recorded history! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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