Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Grace]

Models have trended colder in 6-10 day range. 

As far as BSR. Agree. Looks up & down after that ridge but steadily colder. I tried to upload the loop but it would not let me. 

[Grace]

Seasonal models not showing any winter love. The new Euro update is really ugly. Now bear in mind it has missed November badly from last month as most models have. So, I'm not confident models are onto anything. The CanSips does have a decent looking DEC. But Euro is yuck!

[Iceresistance]

12 hours ago, Grace said:

Seasonal models not showing any winter love. The new Euro update is really ugly. Now bear in mind it has missed November badly from last month as most models have. So, I'm not confident models are onto anything. The CanSips does have a decent looking DEC. But Euro is yuck!

My area looks to be fun for Mid-November right now! 😄 

[Guest]

13 hours ago, Grace said:

Seasonal models not showing any winter love. The new Euro update is really ugly. Now bear in mind it has missed November badly from last month as most models have. So, I'm not confident models are onto anything. The CanSips does have a decent looking DEC. But Euro is yuck!

If the past decade has shown us anything, it's that in December the model showing blowtorch is going to be the correct one. It's science. 

Edited November 6, 2022 by HateWinterWarmth

[Al_Czervik]

4 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

If the past decade has shown us anything, it's that in December the model showing blowtorch is going to be the correct one. It's science. 

You can say that about a couple more items too.

Spring will be delayed in the East.

Western Ridge once established reigns supreme.

Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if we had la nina again in 23-24 winter period.

 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Al_Czervik said:

You can say that about a couple more items too.

Spring will be delayed in the East.

Western Ridge once established reigns supreme.

Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if we had la nina again in 23-24 winter period.

 

If Vegas took weather related wagers, I'd definitely bet on all of those things happening every year. 

[TheBlizzardOf1978]

Winter Outlook Summary 2022-2023

Here is a brief outlook for the winter.

While it has started off mild to begin November, it will turn cooler, then colder over the next 10 days. Strong signals of high latitude blocking and a splitting tendency of the circumpolar vortex will bring in, what should be, increasingly strong Arctic air masses during the late fall and winter period. The West will warm up, while the central and most of the East turn colder. 

Thanks in part to a subtropical jet, the Gulf Coast, Dixie, and most of the East should be normal to above for precipitation. The potential for energetic storms will be present, with warm Gulf waters and intense cold air coming down from Canada. The Pacific Northwest should remain above normal but near and just east of the Rockies and the Southwest, most of California should continue the theme of drier then normal. 

Snowfall should be modest in the Rockies, Sierras, Cascades this winter. Some areas could be excessive if things work out correctly.  The familiar areas too far south should see little to no snow. The wild card, this winter, will a very strong Arctic outbreak occur to allow places in Southern Texas, southern Dixie, and along the coastal regions of the Carolinas see a snow event?  Possible. That would change the normal call to above. That will be watched as the winter progresses. 

The likely areas to receive above snowfall are the Great Plains, Corn Belt, Midwest, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, New England, and interior East. Why?  First, the idea of a circumpolar vortex hanging around in a semi-permanent fashion around the eastern Ontario, western Quebec, Great Lakes region. This would enable many occurrences of small snow events that can add up. Second, the active subtropical jet. Very cold air interacting with a very moist, warm jet will lead to heavy frozen events, ice and snow, especially the central and southern Ohio Valley, northern Tennessee Valley, New England, and Appalachia. 

We all know weather is hard to predict, especially winter weather. Based on signs I have seen since the Summer of 2022, led to this summary. My biggest argument this year is why so many people keep yelling STRONG 3rd YEAR LA NIÑA, when it’s not. It is a La Niña state, but many other factors are arguing against the broad brush La Niña and I have taken that route. All La Nina’s are not the same. This one certainly is not. In fact, some parameters suggest a very cold, borderline severe winter. I am not going that far, but the signals, if they would work in tandem, could produce an extended period of severe cold and snow making winter more prolific. Guess we will see, together. 

Temp Image 1 (Above Red, Below Blue)
Precip Image 2 (Dry Yellow, Wet Green)
Above Normal Snowfall Image 3 (Blue Circe)
https://www.facebook.com/SWCForecastCenter?__cft__[0]=AZWMdLY77eUJbBQWf5KpdPYUZ_QBAof-PC6P-vs0SWAUep0CNIGTXHqtMuErRTjyZfWXmmS_IT4FjiRvAN3eA_MqPJpVeeXcHNbioS6SpLWW7FlzuHJ_gLEDYXUmL8B3QA-dhfFLK8yxurZ1M5Yaxlw6HWys6Ygvw2gs_4PCrjr5mUpaMY0wn3tST-oSqIPHab8&__tn__=%2Cd-UC*F

 

Edited November 6, 2022 by TheBlizzardOf1978

[Grace]

0z Euro control interesting for days 8-12. Produces a massive winter storm. GFS, CMC have hinted at a winter event but not of that magnitude.. I don't believe it but certainly fun to post. 

 

I do buy the cold but question the winter storm. 

[Grace]

5 minutes ago, Grace said:

0z Euro control interesting for days 8-12. Produces a massive winter storm. GFS, CMC have hinted at a winter event but not of that magnitude.. I don't believe it but certainly fun to post. 

 

I do buy the cold but question the winter storm. 

 

12z EURO now hinting on a winter storm. Just a little different in details.

[Hassaywx1223]

46 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

12z EURO now hinting on a winter storm. Just a little different in details.

👀👀👀 it is time to watch  (on this 72 degree sunny Sunday in November here in Ohio😂) 

Edited November 6, 2022 by Hassaywx1223

[Grace]

MJO is now in Phase 8

Forecast for most models is a return to COD, but who knows. 6-7 days ago many models kept it from phase 8. 

Phase 8, NOV La Nina Composite, for a reminder:

 

Models showing some features of that composite over the next 5-12 days 

 

[Iceresistance]

7 hours ago, TheBlizzardOf1978 said:

Winter Outlook Summary 2022-2023

Here is a brief outlook for the winter.

While it has started off mild to begin November, it will turn cooler, then colder over the next 10 days. Strong signals of high latitude blocking and a splitting tendency of the circumpolar vortex will bring in, what should be, increasingly strong Arctic air masses during the late fall and winter period. The West will warm up, while the central and most of the East turn colder. 

Thanks in part to a subtropical jet, the Gulf Coast, Dixie, and most of the East should be normal to above for precipitation. The potential for energetic storms will be present, with warm Gulf waters and intense cold air coming down from Canada. The Pacific Northwest should remain above normal but near and just east of the Rockies and the Southwest, most of California should continue the theme of drier then normal. 

Snowfall should be modest in the Rockies, Sierras, Cascades this winter. Some areas could be excessive if things work out correctly.  The familiar areas too far south should see little to no snow. The wild card, this winter, will a very strong Arctic outbreak occur to allow places in Southern Texas, southern Dixie, and along the coastal regions of the Carolinas see a snow event?  Possible. That would change the normal call to above. That will be watched as the winter progresses. 

The likely areas to receive above snowfall are the Great Plains, Corn Belt, Midwest, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, New England, and interior East. Why?  First, the idea of a circumpolar vortex hanging around in a semi-permanent fashion around the eastern Ontario, western Quebec, Great Lakes region. This would enable many occurrences of small snow events that can add up. Second, the active subtropical jet. Very cold air interacting with a very moist, warm jet will lead to heavy frozen events, ice and snow, especially the central and southern Ohio Valley, northern Tennessee Valley, New England, and Appalachia. 

We all know weather is hard to predict, especially winter weather. Based on signs I have seen since the Summer of 2022, led to this summary. My biggest argument this year is why so many people keep yelling STRONG 3rd YEAR LA NIÑA, when it’s not. It is a La Niña state, but many other factors are arguing against the broad brush La Niña and I have taken that route. All La Nina’s are not the same. This one certainly is not. In fact, some parameters suggest a very cold, borderline severe winter. I am not going that far, but the signals, if they would work in tandem, could produce an extended period of severe cold and snow making winter more prolific. Guess we will see, together. 

Temp Image 1 (Above Red, Below Blue)
Precip Image 2 (Dry Yellow, Wet Green)
Above Normal Snowfall Image 3 (Blue Circe)
https://www.facebook.com/SWCForecastCenter?__cft__[0]=AZWMdLY77eUJbBQWf5KpdPYUZ_QBAof-PC6P-vs0SWAUep0CNIGTXHqtMuErRTjyZfWXmmS_IT4FjiRvAN3eA_MqPJpVeeXcHNbioS6SpLWW7FlzuHJ_gLEDYXUmL8B3QA-dhfFLK8yxurZ1M5Yaxlw6HWys6Ygvw2gs_4PCrjr5mUpaMY0wn3tST-oSqIPHab8&__tn__=%2Cd-UC*F

 

I only see the 3rd image, what about the first two?

[Grace]

The upcoming cold period last 30 model runs

 

Edited November 7, 2022 by Grace

[Columbusbuckeye]

8 hours ago, Grace said:

 

12z EURO now hinting on a winter storm. Just a little different in details.

Not likely, but this is enough to officially shift me to Winter mode. Let’s go! 

[Grace]

23 hours ago, Grace said:

MJO is now in Phase 8

Forecast for most models is a return to COD, but who knows. 6-7 days ago many models kept it from phase 8. 

Phase 8, NOV La Nina Composite, for a reminder:

 

Models showing some features of that composite over the next 5-12 days 

 

 

Models are busting bad on the MJO. They liked to have never come around to the fact it would make it out of phase 7. But even when they came around they've had it barely in Phase 8 & headed to the COD. Well...its still chugging along. 

 

I'd disregard LR modeling with models not getting MJO correct...and that will be reflected in models. Hopefully that get a better hunch of what's MJO is going to do.

Edited November 7, 2022 by Grace

[Guest]

What chance would you give it of making it to Phase 1?

[Hassaywx1223]

59 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

Models are busting bad on the MJO. They liked to have never come around to the fact it would make it out of phase 7. But even when they came around they've had it barely in Phase 8 & headed to the COD. Well...its still chugging along. 

 

I'd disregard LR modeling with models not getting MJO correct...and that will be reflected in models. Hopefully that get a better hunch of what's MJO is going to do.

Wonder if this once again has to do with the volcanic particles and such in the air???? They also busted in the southern hemisphere I do believe and everything ran almost 1-2 degrees colder that is the X factor of this winter  

[Grace]

30 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

What chance would you give it of making it to Phase 1?

 

 Oh I have no clue. I just know the models aren't being very helpful.

[Grace]

2 minutes ago, Hassaywx1223 said:

Wonder if this once again has to do with the volcanic particles and such in the air???? They also busted in the southern hemisphere I do believe and everything ran almost 1-2 degrees colder that is the X factor of this winter  

 

 Good question but that's above my pay grade.

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Winter might start early for once this year

[so_whats_happening]

On 11/6/2022 at 3:55 PM, Grace said:

MJO is now in Phase 8

Forecast for most models is a return to COD, but who knows. 6-7 days ago many models kept it from phase 8. 

Phase 8, NOV La Nina Composite, for a reminder:

 

Models showing some features of that composite over the next 5-12 days 

 

Very interesting thought the brakes would be put on hard around phase 7 but it scooted on by seems we are transitioning out of a Nina atmosphere while waters still remain. 3rd year ninas are very much a wild card situation so I guess we are finding out.

Edited November 8, 2022 by so_whats_happening

[so_whats_happening]

I know many do not tend to go to this site for various reasons but this was an amazing write-up by a well known met over there. Truly a great post!

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58383-some-thoughts-on-the-next-couple-months/

[snowlover2]

18 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I know many do not tend to go to this site for various reasons but this was an amazing write-up by a well known met over there. Truly a great post!

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58383-some-thoughts-on-the-next-couple-months/

I remember him from accuweather. He always does great write ups.

[so_whats_happening]

17 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

I remember him from accuweather. He always does great write ups.

I believe I remember him as well. That is what going to get a masters looks like lol I just enjoy the plots to go along with it not many people focus on that aspect and push an idea without much of a visual perspective to what it looks like. This will hopefully help people understand a bit more into LR forecasting. Can't always get it right but at least we can get clues from these forcings. 

[1816]

Very unscientific but it was in the 80s here yesterday. I love it because it usually means we'll flip cold a bit down the road and I prefer that timing to be December for the holidays. Better than cold November flipping to a warm December.