Grace Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 I sure see a lot of pink on 12z GEFS Ensembles over the next 15 days. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 24, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 24, 2023 4 hours ago, MidwestWX said: I'll be sure to toss my coffee up while I launch the balloon. 😁 Trying to figure out if launching the balloon is a fun part of the job, or the worst part. Seems fun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: Trying to figure out if launching the balloon is a fun part of the job, or the worst part. Seems fun. The worst part is usually timing, especially out west. Waking up at 4 am to launch a balloon, no thanks. I'm sure it's interesting to watch the data stream in though. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 8 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Kind of amazing he couldn't get the day 1-4 surface low track right, but I guess folks are only looking at snow amounts anyways. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 24, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said: Kind of amazing he couldn't get the day 1-4 surface low track right, but I guess folks are only looking at snow amounts anyways. And such a widespread snow prediction like 4-12" guess that covers it lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 25, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 25, 2023 8 hours ago, MaineJay said: Trying to figure out if launching the balloon is a fun part of the job, or the worst part. Seems fun. I thought it was fun when we got to do a launch during hurricane Sandy at school. Otherwise I could see how in some instances it would be rather rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 25, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 25, 2023 On 1/21/2023 at 2:27 PM, StretchCT said: Anyone following the SSW event that WxTwitter is excited about? I'm not really seeing it. Yeah, it's a little warmer I guess. Yea we had some moments where there was stretching and potential for it to break down but that unfortunately failed so we are left with the warming taking hold. This is a way to eventually just erode the SPV but it still seems to be holding onto the structure even though cold temps have been removed and it has weakened slightly. We may not see the sudden shock of the SPV breaking down and for it to just slowly break apart as we move to the end of the northern winter as we move into late February. Probably a big reason we are keeping the arctic blast at bay. We also don't seem to be setting up a storm toward the end of the month into February to get the artic blast through much of the country so it stays locked up into the upper midwest and Canada. Don't get me wrong there is cold up there but looks like we just get spurts of cold and warm not a lasting cold pattern. It could still offer up some fun periods but certainly not the classic breakdown many were looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1/25 0Z NAEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 After yet another bust I am just done with winter. Ready for spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 19 hours ago, Grace said: I sure see a lot of pink on 12z GEFS Ensembles over the next 15 days. These are fun to look at but for some reason over the years these GEFS always love WPa, get my hopes up yet it never materializes. 8-12 inch means seems like forever. I just pick the least snowy one and go with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 (edited) I was hoping the waning La Nin~a would shake things up for the EC. At least the GEFS as of today shows the SER fairly at bay, and Euro seems to agree. Let's see if it means more chances for snow in Mid-Atlantic Feb into March 2023. Edited January 25, 2023 by TheComet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1/25 12Z NAEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 The MJO forecast difference in the ECM vs. the GFS is major to say the least. GFS swinging in to FEB unfavorable 5-6-7, while the ECM makes a Uturn back towards the COD and phases 7-8 also, how does February get the short end of the stick in Ninas where phases 1, 2, 5, 6, 7 all suck for the eastern conus....seems rigged to me 🤣 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Can we be done with La Niñas for like 10+ yrs please and thank you? 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 13 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: After yet another bust I am just done with winter. Ready for spring I've never once been ready for Spring 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted January 26, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 26, 2023 (edited) On 1/24/2023 at 1:41 PM, MaineJay said: Trying to figure out if launching the balloon is a fun part of the job, or the worst part. Seems fun. It's fun between 20F to 75F otherwise it can be uncomfortable (too cold or hot). I really enjoy launches in late April > May and again in Late August > September. That's where a bulk of my weather story (social media graphics) photos come from because I can catch sunrise or sunset. Doing a launch during Wind Chill Warning conditions ranks up there with one of the worst experiences possible since you may have to change a tank to finish inflation and/or need to tie one of ~ten knots. I have a pair of thin gloves that allow me to not go bare handed BUT they don't help much at -35 or colder WC. It's also awful when you have 70F+ dew points and you're in work attire. Edited January 26, 2023 by MidwestWX 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 26, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 26, 2023 So.. would someone be able to better explain the EAR to me? I saw there was 938 SLP near Japan. I read Renken’s paper.. and gather that such weather translates to the U.S. in 6-10 days. That would be the first week of February. Thinking there’s 2 windows.. on the 2nd-3rd, and the 6th-7th. Does this sound right, or am I way off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 26, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 26, 2023 I'm not complaining, because I've had 27" of snow in the last 6 days. Despite this. But I can't ignore what the BSR suggests for the last week of February. I've been lucky, I know this, and hopefully, the next 3 weeks can deliver for the snow starved, as I put more stock in this than the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1/26 0Z NAEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 3 hours ago, MaineJay said: I'm not complaining, because I've had 27" of snow in the last 6 days. Despite this. But I can't ignore what the BSR suggests for the last week of February. I've been lucky, I know this, and hopefully, the next 3 weeks can deliver for the snow starved, as I put more stock in this than the models. Hopefully that’s ridging out west and low pressure by the Aleutian’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 26, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 26, 2023 Yea we didnt pull an inch yesterday half inch ish but no inch around here. I wanna say that may be the extent of our fun, unfortunately. Although it was nice to see snow falling this year will probably go down in the record books. Not even the abysmal 2011-12 or 19-20 season can top this one so far. 11.4" and 4.8" repesctively. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Milwaukee now lags behind Fayetteville,AR in seasonal snow total by 1". An astoundingly abysmal winter around here. Looks like the next 3 weeks should be ok, and then back to Torchfest 2023 at the end of Feb. I'm actually ok with that. The quicker I can put this winter out of my memory, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 26, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 26, 2023 Keep hearing how everyone predicted a warm winter because La Nina's result in warm winters. I never remembered it being that way so I looked for what a typical La Nina winter looks like. I found, according to some, it depends on the strength. ONI is around 1 making it borderline moderate. So far winter has looked like this: According to this chart for the Northeast, the only real difference on snowfall is when there is a strong el nino and + or - NAO. and for the midwest it seems more relevant. When I look for similar ONI (range -.8 to -1.1) late fall and winters I come up with the following winters: 70-71; 71-72; 83-84; 84-85; 95-96; 11-12; 17-18; 21-22. This is the result. Leaving out the last decade it looks like this for temps. Why are these so far off from this season? EPO? Here's the plot since 12-1 2 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1/26 12Z NAEFS (Lots of white (no, not snow)) 🙂 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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