StLweatherjunkie Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 17 hours ago, RobB said: Indeed! Glad drought regions in the west are seeing help but man, not all at once! That's just how the west works, boom - bust - bust - bust - bust - boom - repeat The boom years are too much of a good thing and the bust years are well... A bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 This feels like an appropriate time to revisit how amazing the farmers almanac forecast was. The northern plains is the only place they were even close 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 4 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: The Ensembles show a steady story vs the OP run to run variability right now Yup, the whole pattern reloads starting with a western trough that eventually bleeds east. At least there's some cold air in Canada this time. I'm thinking this reload culminates in another major blizzard across eastern North America roughly 3-5 weeks from now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Quite a battle setting up...Should produce some pretty good winter storm action 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 42 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Quite a battle setting up...Should produce some pretty good winter storm action Honest Ohio Indiana is right where you western pa south western New York is right where you want to be for good winter storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 hour ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Quite a battle setting up...Should produce some pretty good winter storm action This is a very solid setup for a lot of the country. May also have some staying power. What a turn of events this would be. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Not trying to beat a dead horse but how often do you see the GEFS colder than the OP, your talking 5-10 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 (edited) Getting very excited about this pattern being predicted. Edited January 22, 2023 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 ❄️ ⛄️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NKYSnowLover Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 (edited) When the temps are progged to be this tight, they are running generally SW to NE and then you have a decent signal for above average precip... It's a reasonable signal for overrunning events. I'd guess a mean track near the near normal stripe and wherever that moves to. on Edited January 22, 2023 by NKYSnowLover 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 minute ago, NKYSnowLover said: When the temps are progged to be this tight, they are running generally SW to NE and then you have a decent signal for above average precip... It's a reasonable signal for overrunning events. I'd guess a mean track near the near normal stripe and wherever that moves to. on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Something to watch for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Listen up all you disappointed winter lovers. There's a big playoff game going on in Buffalo right now. And it's turned into a pretty decent snow game, being Buffalo in January and all. I suggest tuning in and enjoying, it might be the most snow you see this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NKYSnowLover Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 hour ago, NKYSnowLover said: When the temps are progged to be this tight, they are running generally SW to NE and then you have a decent signal for above average precip... It's a reasonable signal for overrunning events. I'd guess a mean track near the near normal stripe and wherever that moves to. Following up... Here are today's updates. Notice how the zones progressed SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 22, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 22, 2023 Been busy with work and life other than getting a quick chance to pop in. It looks like we will now go January without snow, not even a trace. So this is definitely something. No sight in changing that either as of right now. We really need to keep this wet pattern going otherwise we may be staring down drought potential as we head into spring. Snow helps to slowly melt and allows water to permeate through the semi frozen grounds but with rain we don't get that as easily in winter even with temps above average the top portion of the soil (2-3" from surface) has had enough time to thaw but most below that not quite there so excessive runoff is an issue. Some models are predicting a little lead snow comes in the 25th storm but im not optimistic and think it will once again be just NW of Harrisburg that sees the cold hold on just long enough to see some snow. Maybe wet flakes are possible so there could be that 'T' lol. Further on this definitely seems to be evolving on the same time scale as what happened in December. Warmth from just after Thanksgiving into the 3rd week of December when we started to slowly cool down and then the blast came a few days before Christmas. Big storm helped bring it in too so would not be surprised if a similar situation happened. Storm may be around the beginning of February? No real sign of a SSW (defined as wind reversal at 60N and not just warming episodes). Honestly overall the SPV (stratospheric polar vortex) is still rather intact even after taking a beating from the warming aloft. These still will produce anomalous weather regimes as they work through the atmosphere but not the sustainability that a complete breakdown of the SPV would have had on the lower atmosphere. Looking long term unless we see a solid SPV breakdown I would not be surprised if we do reverse back into this same ol humdrum of a pattern we have had between the Arctic air outbreaks. By that point it will be about mid to late February and seasonal changes will start to take place by March. I hope I am wrong as February is usually our snowiest month but sure do have doubts at this point. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 23, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Been busy with work and life other than getting a quick chance to pop in. It looks like we will now go January without snow, not even a trace. So this is definitely something. No sight in changing that either as of right now. We really need to keep this wet pattern going otherwise we may be staring down drought potential as we head into spring. Snow helps to slowly melt and allows water to permeate through the semi frozen grounds but with rain we don't get that as easily in winter even with temps above average the top portion of the soil (2-3" from surface) has had enough time to thaw but most below that not quite there so excessive runoff is an issue. Some models are predicting a little lead snow comes in the 25th storm but im not optimistic and think it will once again be just NW of Harrisburg that sees the cold hold on just long enough to see some snow. Maybe wet flakes are possible so there could be that 'T' lol. Further on this definitely seems to be evolving on the same time scale as what happened in December. Warmth from just after Thanksgiving into the 3rd week of December when we started to slowly cool down and then the blast came a few days before Christmas. Big storm helped bring it in too so would not be surprised if a similar situation happened. Storm may be around the beginning of February? No real sign of a SSW (defined as wind reversal at 60N and not just warming episodes). Honestly overall the SPV (stratospheric polar vortex) is still rather intact even after taking a beating from the warming aloft. These still will produce anomalous weather regimes as they work through the atmosphere but not the sustainability that a complete breakdown of the SPV would have had on the lower atmosphere. Looking long term unless we see a solid SPV breakdown I would not be surprised if we do reverse back into this same ol humdrum of a pattern we have had between the Arctic air outbreaks. By that point it will be about mid to late February and seasonal changes will start to take place by March. I hope I am wrong as February is usually our snowiest month but sure do have doubts at this point. At this point.. I have to agree. Mid-February might be the next best opportunity once the MJO cycles back into phases 7 & 8, but even that is just speculative. I like the transition to warmer SSTs in the Pacific.. but that’s not a guarantee. It only takes one great storm to make-up the deficit.. as evidenced by seven years ago today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 23, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 23, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Penn State said: At this point.. I have to agree. Mid-February might be the next best opportunity once the MJO cycles back into phases 7 & 8, but even that is just speculative. I like the transition to warmer SSTs in the Pacific.. but that’s not a guarantee. It only takes one great storm to make-up the deficit.. as evidenced by seven years ago today! We have some potentially very unfavorable MJO phases if we indeed do actually get a wave to form. The current wave is just not doing much to sway the pattern too much. The short term at least the -EPO seems to be running the table and will offer up cold for the country just not in a good spot for us in the east. There are chances with this pattern but are just that chances. It is true though only one storm can change a whole season. BTW since you mentioned that system we are moving into the same phase as we did during that year wouldnt that be something although we aren't in a super Nino but this surely has had its super Nino qualities this year. This is what phase 3 looks like in January during a Nina. Edited January 23, 2023 by so_whats_happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 East Asia suggests cold air makes it. TIFWIW. This suggests cold until around FEB 6-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1/23 0Z NAEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 That 6z gfs is a pattern loaded with potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 7 hours ago, Grace said: East Asia suggests cold air makes it. TIFWIW. This suggests cold until around FEB 6-7 This makes sense. Based on pure tellies and MJO, it looks like we have chances for cold and snow in the east now into the second week of Feb. Here is another piece of evidence to back it up. After that point though, I favor above average temps for most places east of the Mississippi though the further north one goes, it is a bit more of a crapshoot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Yikes! Pretty crazy... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1/23 12Z NAEFS: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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