MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 51 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: we finally made it 😭 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 17, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 17, 2023 MJO disco from CPC. Quote Outlook Discussion Last Updated - 01/17/23 Valid - 01/25/23 - 02/07/23 The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) RMM index indicates a slowed and weakened MJO signal over the western Hemisphere, which appears to be tied to destructively interfering Rossby wave activity over the Americas during the last week. This is also reflected in CPCs velocity potential MJO index revealing a less organized wave-1 pattern throughout the global tropics. Despite this weakening, the leading edge of the enhanced MJO phase has continued to shift eastward, having crossed the Prime Meridian during the past week. Looking ahead, there is increased forecast confidence for a more coherent and potentially robust MJO emerging over the Indian Ocean, which continues to be predicted by several dynamical models during the next two weeks. Beyond this time, several RMM solutions point to a sharp decrease of the intraseasonal signal while continuing to propagate the active phase of the MJO into the Maritime Continent during early February. However, the impact of the removal of the interannual signal (120-day mean) in the RMM computation adds uncertainty. This procedure may be dampening the true MJO signal where its associated convective and circulation pattern becomes more in-phase with La Nina by this time. This potential underestimation of the MJO in RMM space is evidenced by extended range velocity potential forecasts from the GEFS and ECMWF, which show a more coherent wave-1 pattern, with the enhanced envelope maintaining some structure as it shifts eastward across the Maritime Continent and western Pacific later in February. Nonetheless, a potentially robust Indian Ocean MJO event favors increased chances for tropical cyclone (TC) formation in the southwestern portion of the basin, with decreasing chances over the South Pacific later in January. Outside of the tropics, a constructively interfering MJO may reinforce the low frequency La Nina base state and its typical extratropical response over North America, where models are beginning to favor more of a negative Pacific-North America (PNA) pattern taking shape by the end of January and early February. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghaz/index.php 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 (edited) so is a slightly -EPO just going to hold the weight of the world or what? lol. That is an alarming PNA forecast. We havent dipped below -2 in several months. The forecasts for AO/NAO remain flat. I sort of see why some of these upcoming storms are struggling to find a source of arctic air Edited January 17, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: so is a slightly -EPO just going to hold the weight of the world or what? lol. That is an alarming PNA forecast. We havent dipped below 2 in several months. The forecasts for AO/NAO remain flat. I sort of see why some of these upcoming storms are struggling to find a source of arctic air Also higher difficulty as we're in a transition from one long-term pattern to another! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 (edited) 9 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: watch it evolve from 12z analysis (circled) to hour 240 9 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: the 6z GFS tried something almost identical It's on the 00z CMC now Edited January 18, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 WOW 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 (edited) 6 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Also higher difficulty as we're in a transition from one long-term pattern to another! Are we though? I’m starting to believe we see the Pacific pick back up in early to mid February. On the good side, MJO phases 2 and 3 are cooler than normal looks for JFM and dry out west. We should push out of phase 3 sometime in early Feb, which then with a short lag, puts you somewhere near week 2. if we enter 4, that would seem to enhance our base state for this year so far. Based on what we have seen, combined with the tellies, leads me to believe this to be a short blip, before returning to more of what we have seen. That is good for the west, but not so good for snow lovers in the east. Edited January 18, 2023 by Psu1313 Autocorrect ffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Psu1313 said: Are we though? I’m starting to believe we see the Pacific pick back up in early to mid February. On the good side, MJO phases 2 and 3 are cooler than normal looks for JFM and dry out west. We should push out of phase 3 sometime in early Feb, which then with a short lag, puts you somewhere near week 2. if we enter 4, that would seem to enhance our base state for this year so far. Based on what we have seen, combined with the tellies, leads me to believe this to be a short blip, before returning to more of what we have seen. That is good for the west, but not so good for snow lovers in the east. I agree. I think this will be another quick hit of extreme winter then back to the status quo unfortunately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1/18 0Z NAEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 8 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: I agree. I think this will be another quick hit of extreme winter then back to the status quo unfortunately Depends where you're at ... seems like cold could have some staying power for the northern tier, but there's already a signal for the western trough sending more Pacific air eastward in early February. Overall feels pretty similar to December but probably less 'extreme' considering late Jan/early Feb is climatologically colder than late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 look who joined the party finally 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: look who joined the party finally The GFS was in the middle of the dust, and now it's finally peaking out! Check out the 12z CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Hopefully this cooler pattern doesn't go for not. Just one great snow would be very welcome for most of us. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Haven't even had a 2in snowstorm yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted January 18, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 18, 2023 38 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Haven't even had a 2in snowstorm yet same here lol hopefully one of these systems can catch the cold at the right time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 (edited) Is it spring yet? Because I have about three-ish weeks until Idgaf how much digital snow we get and I’m ready to start germinating my seeds for the garden. Edited January 18, 2023 by NWOhioChaser 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 11-15 day averages across the 3 ensembles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1/18 12Z NAEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 5 hours ago, Central Illinois said: same here lol hopefully one of these systems can catch the cold at the right time It's been rough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1/19 0Z NAEFS: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 (edited) The Ensembles last night are trying to flip the script back I guess the free fall -PNA had to win out eventually Edited January 19, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: The GFS really wants this torch to continue, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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