Grace Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 4 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Interesting Now post 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Grace said: Now post 18z Improving but that southeast ridge scares me Edited January 16, 2023 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 (edited) 0z Canadian (GEPS) continues to be impressive...increasingly so: Days 10-15, 500mb Days 10-15, 2m temps Edited January 16, 2023 by Grace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 0z GEFS changes...Day 13 500mb Difference...look at Alaska, watch contours as well as anomalies Result is colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 GEFS, Day 14 changes: Difference, again look at Alaska contours & then also just NW of Greenland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 (edited) JAN 25-26 Euro...OV winter storm I hope I didn't run everyone off, lol. Edited January 16, 2023 by Grace 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Models seem to be trending in the right direction. 🤔Time will tell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 (edited) Impressive Edited January 16, 2023 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1/16 0Z NAEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 hours ago, RobB said: 1/16 0Z NAEFS The west wins again with a pretty classic -ENSO -PDO and -PNA. The east will get their chance in March ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 16, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 16, 2023 44 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said: The west wins again with a pretty classic -ENSO -PDO and -PNA. The east will get their chance in March ... *Generally* we do well in Nina events up here. It's not a stretch to think we start building a snowpack here over the next few weeks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Still mixed signals. A lot of the differences has to do with differences in blocking around Greenland & to its NW & Alaska. Last 3 EPS runs Last 3 GEFS runs Last 3 runs of GEPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 16, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 hours ago, RobB said: 1/16 0Z NAEFS Slightly above temps might mean snow up here. It doesn't always have to be a Feb 2015 situation. It was fun to average 17:1 ratios though. 🥶 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 DAYS 9-13 2m Temps, last 3 runs GEFS EPS GEPS One is that all 3 have trended colder, EPS being the warmest but has also trended colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 57 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said: The west wins again with a pretty classic -ENSO -PDO and -PNA. The east will get their chance in March ... Generally for the east coast yes...not west of Appalachians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 16, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, Grace said: Still mixed signals. A lot of the differences has to do with differences in blocking around Greenland & to its NW & Alaska. Last 3 EPS runs Last 3 GEFS runs Last 3 runs of GEPS It is interesting to see the models starting to show a Greenland block trying to form. Makes sense with the ridging that tries to setup over northern Europe over the last several runs. This seems to be evolving in a similar matter as we got with the December situation slow progress through to the cooler times NAO shows up more and more over time. This go around may be a little different from our quick burst we had around Christmas this may actually have some staying power especially since we see the -EPO show up as well, even with a -PNA pattern. Now to say the cold will be centered over is probably not the way to go and honestly don't really want it to happen that way but having below average across much of the country helps us with potential cold near by with this train of system coming in. In this case we do need a little push from the SE ridge to give a little bit of fun with each system but the overall theme still seems to be as time moves on the storm track goes further SE with time, believe I had mentioned this yesterday. Not large jumps but enough to help build the snowpack, what bit there is left across the upper midwest. Will we reach average snows probably not but I dont think many will complain of a solid 6" snowfall. Of course we all chase the big systems but I can appreciate the pattern trying to show waves that have potential. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 What is the best ENSO state for cold/snowy weather in the East? It seems El Nino and La Nina are both bad, so do we want neutral all the time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 16, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 16, 2023 19 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: What is the best ENSO state for cold/snowy weather in the East? It seems El Nino and La Nina are both bad, so do we want neutral all the time? La Nina tends to be warmer in the east with a jet further NW. El nino depending on strength tends to ok for the region weaker the better. Neutral years overall tend to be the best outside of weak Nino state. That is not to say every El Nino, La Nina, or neutral will perform the same especially in a changing climate. I mean to have a 3rd year weak to moderate Nina in status and have a super El Nino like atmospheric pattern shows we won't always will follow the same way a pattern should evolve as we expect. So if we transition to a neutral ENSO or El Nino/ warm state next winter we can't guarantee that things will now be cold and snowy but the option of at least snowier tends to happen more often; we will just have to wait and see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 (edited) Look at the differences in the high latitude blocking 12z GEFS, compared to 7 runs ago Hence colder. Ridge suppressed but enough to fuel weather systems. 3 layered Winter storms layered: snow, mix, freezing rain, rain & storms likely. Edited January 16, 2023 by Grace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, HateWinterWarmth said: What is the best ENSO state for cold/snowy weather in the East? It seems El Nino and La Nina are both bad, so do we want neutral all the time? El Nino but not a really strong. Weak Modoki El Nino is good if QBO & other things cooperate really good. EDIT: Let me add nothing is a slam dunk for cold/snow & nothing is a slam dunk for warm. Yes there are probabilities one way or other but again 90% chance means 10% chance of opposite. Sometimes 10% wins. Edited January 16, 2023 by Grace 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1/16 12Z NAEFS 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al_Czervik Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said: What is the best ENSO state for cold/snowy weather in the East? It seems El Nino and La Nina are both bad, so do we want neutral all the time? La nada years are best. Too much nino = Your toast, too much nina = You roast. Really the EPO is what I watch. The negative is when I cringe. Edited January 16, 2023 by Al_Czervik 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 EPS day 10 look... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 So now Canadian is losing the blocking & GEFS picks it up. I'm finished posting all these run to run differences. I'm not sure I've ever seen ensemble means with so many run to run differences. I'm guessing it's the stratosphere stuff that's messing with the models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now