Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[StormfanaticInd]

18 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

It's just not meant to be folks. Severe weather season should get off to an early start with this look however 😭 

Eps is strongly hinting at this to in its own way.  That southeast ridge will not be denied. There is some risk of undercutting cold air though 

Edited January 15, 2023 by StormfanaticInd

[SOMOSnow]

👇 Day 6 to 16 and day 9 to 16 2m temp anomalies from 12z Canadian ensembles. Bring the cold.

Edited January 15, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[StormfanaticInd]

1 minute ago, SOMOSnow said:

Day 6 to 16 and day 9 to 16 2m temp anomalies from 12z Canadian ensembles. Bring the cold.

Even here the cold is strongly favoring the west.

[SOMOSnow]

4 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Even here the cold is strongly favoring the west.

Not sure of your location but it's showing below average for almost all of CONUS and colder last 7 days than last 10 . 

[StormfanaticInd]

3 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said:

Not sure of your location but it's showing below average for almost all of CONUS and colder last 7 days than last 10 . 

Again centered in the west and given that this is an ensemble mean that tells me there's members with a southeast ridge. If I was a betting man and my life depended on it, I would bet on warmth

[Grace]

30 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

It's just not meant to be folks. Severe weather season should get off to an early start with this look however 😭 

 

To be fair the GEFS is the warmest. And you posted the warmest day at hr 384. Here's the Day 10-15 average on GEFS, EPS, & Canadian (GEPS)

 

So while GEFS could be correct it's certainly not a given especially with other guidance disagreeing. EPS trended colder in Days 10-15. 

I agree with @Mulaman984 why post the warmest day of the warmest of the 3 models?

[Grace]

14 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Again centered in the west and given that this is an ensemble mean that tells me there's members with a southeast ridge. If I was a betting man and my life depended on it, I would bet on warmth

 

Yea. A mean comes from some members having:

1) no ridge at all,

2) some with a suppressed 

3) some with a larger ridge

It's a mean. I'm willing to bet if GEFS where the colder solution & EPS the warmest...you'd post the EPS. Come on now. A more well rounded approach would be better. 

Even "if" MJO goes to warm phases most models that even slightly lean that way are getting there well into FEB & remember the pattern that emerges from whatever phrase has on average 7-14 day lag. So...we're talking 3rd week of FEB with most & March with others. But the majority of models take it to the phase 3 & into the COD. 

 

 

Edited January 15, 2023 by Grace

[StormfanaticInd]

11 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

To be fair the GEFS is the warmest. And you posted the warmest day at hr 384. Here's the Day 10-15 average on GEFS, EPS, & Canadian (GEPS)

 

So while GEFS could be correct it's certainly not a given especially with other guidance disagreeing. EPS trended colder in Days 10-15. 

I agree with @Mulaman984 why post the warmest day of the warmest of the 3 models?

Given that we are in a la nina still I'm going with the gefs unfortunately and to be clear I hate winter torches especially in January 

Edited January 15, 2023 by StormfanaticInd

[Grace]

The purple is the mountain regions.

Besides who is arguing where the coldest anomalies are? The argument is torch or seasonable to below normal. His point & our point is all guidance except GEFS does not favor a torch.

29 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Even here the cold is strongly favoring the west.

[Iceresistance]

14 minutes ago, Grace said:

The purple is the mountain regions.

Besides who is arguing where the coldest anomalies are? The argument is torch or seasonable to below normal. His point & our point is all guidance except GEFS does not favor a torch.

One of the ensemble models might be the warmest mean compared to the rest.

[StormfanaticInd]

13 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

One of the ensemble models might be the warmest mean compared to the rest.

Hmmmmm... let me investigate 

[StormfanaticInd]

16 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

One of the ensemble models might be the warmest mean compared to the rest.

 

More do seem to favor cold but there are some very warm members in there as well. Cold still clearly favored on the eps. 

Edited January 15, 2023 by StormfanaticInd

[1816]

46 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

To be fair the GEFS is the warmest. And you posted the warmest day at hr 384. Here's the Day 10-15 average on GEFS, EPS, & Canadian (GEPS)

 

So while GEFS could be correct it's certainly not a given especially with other guidance disagreeing. EPS trended colder in Days 10-15. 

I agree with @Mulaman984 why post the warmest day of the warmest of the 3 models?

[StormfanaticInd]

Interesting 

[MaineJay]

7 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

The return to normalcy is much welcomed

We got 2" of snow on January 5-6, and it was just enough it seems to have brought us closer to seasonal up here.  Amazing what just that thin veneer of snow can do.  There was one warm, rainy day, but we clung to the little bit that was on the ground, and some that fell the day previous.

   Seen a number of ridges get the to knocked down as they try to build in, most, not all, have been less than modeled.  I am pretty far north though, and still way behind on snow, but the upcoming pattern might be able to deliver to northern NY/NE.

   Might even get snow from one of the more interesting winter storms I've seen.

  

  

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, MaineJay said:

We got 2" of snow on January 5-6, and it was just enough it seems to have brought us closer to seasonal up here.  Amazing what just that thin veneer of snow can do.  There was one warm, rainy day, but we clung to the little bit that was on the ground, and some that fell the day previous.

   Seen a number of ridges get the to knocked down as they try to build in, most, not all, have been less than modeled.  I am pretty far north though, and still way behind on snow, but the upcoming pattern might be able to deliver to northern NY/NE.

   Might even get snow from one of the more interesting winter storms I've seen.

  

  

That circulation may become a (Sub)Tropical Cyclone soon if it develops even more.

[MaineJay]

7 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

That circulation may become a (Sub)Tropical Cyclone soon if it develops even more.

If you look closer, this shortwave IR band picks up on surface temps, and you can see that it's right on the northern fringe of the gulf stream (warmer temps are white, colder dark, green coldest).

[Ohiobuckeye45]

It's easy to be entrenched with the GFS because it runs 2x the cmc/ecm in the long range. Then it's relatively the one with the most available fancy free products, so it's not a wonder most ppl have an unconscious bias towards it, whether it's right or wrong 

[Ingyball]

2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

It's easy to be entrenched with the GFS because it runs 2x the cmc/ecm in the long range. Then it's relatively the one with the most available fancy free products, so it's not a wonder most ppl have an unconscious bias towards it, whether it's right or wrong 

You call it a bias, I call it willing a storm into existence 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

2 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

You call it a bias, I call it willing a storm into existence 

Haha thay wasn't meant to say it's wishcasting. But in general I think it's forced to be the first thing ppl see on every weather page example tropical tidbits

Edited January 16, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Ingyball]

2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Haha thay wasn't meant to say it's wishcasting. But in general I think it's forced to be the first thing ppl see on every weather page example tropical tid bits

I didn't take it as such. I was talking about me specifically. The 12z and 18z GFS would put a really good dent in the drought (12z GFS was even stronger with the southeast ridge) so I'm team southeast ridge right now lol. 

[Iceresistance]

Just now, Ingyball said:

I didn't take it as such. I was talking about me specifically. The 12z and 18z GFS would put a really good dent in the drought (12z GFS was even stronger with the southeast ridge) so I'm team southeast ridge right now lol. 

I really need that moisture too. the SE Ridge encourages moisture movement towards here.

[SOMOSnow]

18z GEFS improved from 12z GEFS. Day 6 to 16 and day 9 to 16 temp anomalies. 👇

[Grace]

5 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

GEFS is correct, without a doubt. Always trust the warmer solution.