Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Al_Czervik]

On 10/23/2022 at 8:16 PM, Ingyball said:

I actually don't thin this winter will only be front loaded assuming we see a rapid decay of La Nina like the seasonal models are hinting towards, If we move into neutral by February I think we'll see winter continue into March. A lot of it will be assisted by high latitude blocking and a weak polar vortex.

I would hope that if we did have a front loaded winter the atmosphere would try to balance things out and warmup in Feb /Mar.  I have zero confidence that this will occur.  Looks more like a western ridge / eastern trough type of setup to me.  This would be the worst possible scenario in terms of impacts economically.

[StLweatherjunkie]

Finally have the time to put a post out there even though I've been working on this for a while now. I started with the peak of other multi-winter ENSO events that switched phase the following year. I added 2014 and 2018, because they are a great analog for observed minimum Arctic Sea ice extent. Anyways, here's the analog blend I came up with for water year 2022 and how it compares to observations:

 

Now using those analogs to project forward for the next water year (Oct - Sep) gives us high latitude blocking and a weak west Pacific jet stream. Limited signal across the CONUS implies lots of month-to-month variability with cold weather not being 'locked-in' even though some places should be getting quite a bit of snow. 

 

It's a similar look for just the cool season when snow is plausible. IMHO, this pattern would favor a more southern storm track:

 

FWIW, here are the outgoing longwave radiation, 850 mb vector wind, temperature, and precipitation anomalies:

 

I'm not sure how much stock I put in the monthly break-downs of analogs, but there seems to be a signal for Nov, Dec, and Mar being the best winter-weather wise across the MS/OHV while Jan-Mar could be great for the east coast. Also keep in mind that monthly boundaries are arbitrary so it's probably wise to assume +/- 1 month for any of the images below. I'm personally rooting for an early spring thaw then a late freeze to kill the blasted bugs, but I digress ...

[Grace]

On 10/25/2022 at 5:05 PM, StLweatherjunkie said:

Finally have the time to put a post out there even though I've been working on this for a while now. I started with the peak of other multi-winter ENSO events that switched phase the following year. I added 2014 and 2018, because they are a great analog for observed minimum Arctic Sea ice extent. Anyways, here's the analog blend I came up with for water year 2022 and how it compares to observations:

 

Now using those analogs to project forward for the next water year (Oct - Sep) gives us high latitude blocking and a weak west Pacific jet stream. Limited signal across the CONUS implies lots of month-to-month variability with cold weather not being 'locked-in' even though some places should be getting quite a bit of snow. 

 

It's a similar look for just the cool season when snow is plausible. IMHO, this pattern would favor a more southern storm track:

 

FWIW, here are the outgoing longwave radiation, 850 mb vector wind, temperature, and precipitation anomalies:

 

I'm not sure how much stock I put in the monthly break-downs of analogs, but there seems to be a signal for Nov, Dec, and Mar being the best winter-weather wise across the MS/OHV while Jan-Mar could be great for the east coast. Also keep in mind that monthly boundaries are arbitrary so it's probably wise to assume +/- 1 month for any of the images below. I'm personally rooting for an early spring thaw then a late freeze to kill the blasted bugs, but I digress ...

 

Great to see you post. Great post!

[ClicheVortex2014]

Not to derail the thread, but with the activity level now, thought this was a good time to announce that I'm moving to Amarillo, Texas to join the crew at NWS Amarillo. I've been anxiously waiting for the final word, and I got it yesterday.

Edited October 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[1816]

52 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Not to derail the thread, but with the activity level now, thought this was a good time to announce that I'm moving to Amarillo, Texas to join the crew at NWS Amarillo. I've been anxiously waiting for the final word, and I got it yesterday.

Congratulations it's about damn time. You're gonna be a huge asset for them. Hope you love it. 

 

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Not to derail the thread, but with the activity level now, thought this was a good time to announce that I'm moving to Amarillo, Texas to join the crew at NWS Amarillo. I've been anxiously waiting for the final word, and I got it yesterday.

Congrats! Oh wow I think I know someone who works there I went to school with. Let me know if you meet a guy named Scott Kleebauer

Edited October 27, 2022 by so_whats_happening

[Grace]

13 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Not to derail the thread, but with the activity level now, thought this was a good time to announce that I'm moving to Amarillo, Texas to join the crew at NWS Amarillo. I've been anxiously waiting for the final word, and I got it yesterday.

 

Congrats!!

[Grace]

Golden thread by Eric Webb. Certainly worth a click & read:

 

 

[MidwestWX]

14 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Not to derail the thread, but with the activity level now, thought this was a good time to announce that I'm moving to Amarillo, Texas to join the crew at NWS Amarillo. I've been anxiously waiting for the final word, and I got it yesterday.

Congratulations CV! Welcome aboard. I'm sure you'll be a wonderful fit. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Thank you all! 

15 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Congrats! Oh wow I think I know someone who works there I went to school with. Let me know if you meet a guy named Scott Kleebauer

Will do. 

[Grace]

3 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Thank you all! 

Will do. 

 

Only deal is you're still obligated to post here during severe weather events. 😀

[StretchCT]

This is Norton (Boston) NWS webinar on winter weather season for 22-23. It’s focus obviously is Southern New England, but it does get into LaNina, MJO, NAO, and PNA if anyone needs a refresher. Just scrub through the local info. I love that they do it, even though technically I’m not in their forecast area. 
 

I look forward to @ClicheVortex2014 doing one of these, even if for TX. 

 

[so_whats_happening]

9 hours ago, Grace said:

Golden thread by Eric Webb. Certainly worth a click & read:

 

 

Glad to see I wasn't the only one seeing the similarities to last December just earlier. Fits the idea of STLweatherjunkies thoughts too of January being something of fun.

[StLweatherjunkie]

On 10/27/2022 at 12:22 AM, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Not to derail the thread, but with the activity level now, thought this was a good time to announce that I'm moving to Amarillo, Texas to join the crew at NWS Amarillo. I've been anxiously waiting for the final word, and I got it yesterday.

Let me guess, the background check took two months to go through and you started wondering if they found something 😁

Big time congratulations! Get ready for a mountain of training on topics you already know a lot about, that is the government way. 

Amarillo should be a good office for a severe thunderstorm minded person like yourself. I hope there's good leadership in the office and enjoy the adventure. Is your entrance on duty before the end of the year? If at all possible, get on the job sooner than later. 

[StLweatherjunkie]

20 hours ago, Grace said:

Golden thread by Eric Webb. Certainly worth a click & read:

 

 

Sure feels like the current pattern is going to keep amplifying until it becomes too unstable in 3ish weeks and the floodgates unleash. 

Relatively high arctic sea ice means there's plenty of cold getting bottled up while we enjoy this glorious fall weather. 

[Grace]

Latest CFS Weeklies AO & NAO forecast

 

As seen above changes begin middle of NOV. 500mb to end NOV through mid-DEC looks good on that update:

Edited October 31, 2022 by Grace

[Grace]

I've been watching how the Bering Sea is modeled closely. If correct I think its going to be closer to DEC if not early DEC before cold. Most of NOV maybe similar to the next couple of weeks off & on. 

Seasonal models handling of NOV would seem to agree with this as well, & also MJO analogs. Hope I'm wrong & we have winter 3 weeks into NOV through JAN. However, smart money says that's too early. 

[Grace]

22 minutes ago, Grace said:

I've been watching how the Bering Sea is modeled closely. If correct I think its going to be closer to DEC if not early DEC before cold. Most of NOV maybe similar to the next couple of weeks off & on. 

Seasonal models handling of NOV would seem to agree with this as well, & also MJO analogs. Hope I'm wrong & we have winter 3 weeks into NOV through JAN. However, smart money says that's too early. 

 

And let me add...its my opinion BSR correlation is not as high during some La Nina's. No research...just my observation. Maybe JD would know for sure. 

[Grace]

Well...a little change in 0z vs 12z for EPS

0z

12z

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

Well...a little change in 0z vs 12z for EPS

0z

12z

The only big change is the Alaska block is stronger

[Grace]

2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

The only big change is the Alaska block is stronger

Sw ridging & quiet a bit else. The GOA low at the end of the run leads to +PNA/-EPO. 

0z

12z

 

A little similarity to the La Nina phase 8 MJO plot but a little better if that were correct in EPS. It's LR so no gurantee it's correct. 

Edited November 2, 2022 by Grace

[Grace]

Majority of models taking MJO to phase 8 now.

Phase 8 MJO for La Nina

[so_whats_happening]

On 11/1/2022 at 9:30 PM, Grace said:

Majority of models taking MJO to phase 8 now.

Phase 8 MJO for La Nina

It does look like there may be a change up of pattern going into the 3rd week of November but the warm period we are experiencing probably wont go away anytime soon. Brief breaks with a cold front but right back into it with warmth. As for the MJO I would take a precautious approach to its forward speed. Models this time last year were constantly trying to push the wave into phase 8 but it took quite a bit of time (about a month) to migrate into and then through 7, this year seems to be developing in a fairly similar way so far. So I would hesitate to say we hit 8 in a weeks time but we shall see.

Edited November 3, 2022 by so_whats_happening

[MaineJay]

15 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

It does look like there may be a change up of pattern going into the 3rd week of November but the warm period we are experiencing probably wont go away anytime soon. Brief breaks with a cold front but right back into it with warmth. As for the MJO I would take a precautious approach to its forward speed. Models this time last year were constantly trying to push the wave into phase 8 but it took quite a bit of time (about a month) to migrate into and then through 7, this year seems to be developing in a fairly similar way so far. So I would hesitate to say we hit 8 in a weeks time but we shall see.

Looking at the Bering sea rule, it suggests a pattern of 3-4 days of ridging moving through the central-eastern CONUS, punctuated by 1-2 day cool downs. Much like you describe. Doesn't really look like any pattern that "locks in" as of yet

BSR has done pretty well with the pattern so far, in my humble opinion 

I'll enjoy the near record warmth for November for now, been absolutely perfect weather for working outside. Plus, I haven't minded not really having to heat the house yet.

[MaineJay]

BSR suggesting a sizeable ridge moving through the central to eastern CONUS roughly Thanksgiving.