Iceresistance Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 8 minutes ago, bigben89 said: 2023 - The winter that never came. 2023 is more like "Delayed, but not denied". Just like the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: Canadian has been on a roll for MBY for several runs now.. Sorry OHV Your 100th post of the year strictly referencing how its not snowing in the OV. We got it, thank you lol Edited January 15, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 The return to normalcy is much welcomed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Yeesh, not great. Matches up with a lot of the cutter tracks we're seeing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 6 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: That se ridge may play an integral part in slowly snowing up the lower 48. Each passing storm should slowly move south with snow dropping nw. We may have a storm around the 23-25 to watch. The 19-20th storm is interesting but think we are just a little too warm for most. If we get a quicker coastal transfer and less robust inland storm its possible we see our first little bit of measurable snow east of the apps. That ridge will set up a battle ground with pieces of energy riding along it. The question of course just how far north or south it is. But as impressive as the cold gets to building up in Canada one can assume later storms will have more cold at play. Gotta break at some point right lol If that setup remains then the baroclinic zone setups up along snowpack & steers storm track. Each winter storm tracks a little SE of the one before. Everybody has to wait there turn, lol. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 I'd like to see the CFS be correct or something similar for the 26th system: Obviously it has a before & after. Go look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 26 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Yeesh, not great. Matches up with a lot of the cutter tracks we're seeing There is no way that the AO is going to be positive 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Guess that is good for energy costs... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, RobB said: Guess that is good for energy costs... WebberWeather may have a Florida bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 15 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: WebberWeather may have a Florida bias He's originally from the South Carolina area now lives in the 4 corners area (IIRC). He may indeed have biases, but until I see any real changes, it's meh east of the Rockies. Plenty of system tracking but not enough winter for many. If I was a few years younger, I'd really be fed up with lack of winter goodness. I can see the positives of missing out on it more now than then. LOL. I'd still love to see a big snow though with cold. Lots of wet snow/cement is not something I am a fan of. Love powdery snows! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 All I can think of after looking at the 12z models is Rocky. Cut me Mick. Wow the cutters. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 13 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: All I can think of after looking at the 12z models is Rocky. Cut me Mick. Wow the cutters. Too damn true! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Joe Bastardi does NOT want the 12z CMC to verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: WebberWeather may have a Florida bias Eric has been on the warm train for a while. I like Eric & I follow him on twitter and I post a lot of his thoughts here on this forum a lot but he has certainly been wrong several times. He's basing most of that on pure La Nina climatology. He was saying things about the warmth because he was counting on the MJO going into 4,5,6 but now that that is up in the air he's basing it on climatology alone. What I mean by LA Nina climatology if you take all LA Nina & make an analog composite, they normally have warm February's. So statistically the probability is higher...but we know statistics do not mean a lock. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 So is there a cold anywhere in the world 👀 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 14 minutes ago, Grace said: So is there a cold anywhere in the world 👀 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 1/15 12Z NAEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 The difference in Day 15, 2m Temps between GEFS & Canadian is really something. Canadian, Day 15 GEFS, Day 15 I don't have a clue which is correct...I really don't; however this 12z east asia forecast correlates to very end of month & first of FEB. The ensembles go out to JAN 30. So 🤷♂️...just a lot of mixed signals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 12z Canadian ensembles still not budging. Keeps ridge suppressed & its weird because Canadian products have a ridge bias for the most part. 500mb Days 10-15 average (5 days) 2m Temps, Days 10-15 average 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Also look at the Day 7 difference between GFS & EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 20 minutes ago, Grace said: The difference in Day 15, 2m Temps between GEFS & Canadian is really something. Canadian, Day 15 GEFS, Day 15 I don't have a clue which is correct...I really don't; however this 12z east asia forecast correlates to very end of month & first of FEB. The ensembles go out to JAN 30. So 🤷♂️...just a lot of mixed signals. Maybe split the difference & give us the Eastern Lakes cutter/Apps runner/Coastal Plains runner storm track variety that we've been lacking? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 1 hour ago, Grace said: 12z Canadian ensembles still not budging. Keeps ridge suppressed & its weird because Canadian products have a ridge bias for the most part. 500mb Days 10-15 average (5 days) 2m Temps, Days 10-15 average GEFS is correct, without a doubt. Always trust the warmer solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 It's just not meant to be folks. Severe weather season should get off to an early start with this look however 😭 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulaman984 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 (edited) 2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: It's just not meant to be folks. Severe weather season should get off to an early start with this look however 😭 You post one ensemble model yet ignore several quality posts above, showing two other major model solutions? And then bittercast… Edited January 15, 2023 by Mulaman984 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, Mulaman984 said: You post one ensemble model yet ignore several quality posts above, showing two other major model solutions? And then bittercast… This is the most likely solution. By the time we get into February we will be in the warm phases of the mjo most likely. At this point I am ready for spring anyway 😁 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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