Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 8 hours ago, Grace said: Interesting...EPS MJO forecasted to NOT go to warm phases but instead heads back west towards West Hemisphere cold phases. 😀 That would be a sight for sore eyes once we got closer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Will have to keep an eye on this 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 14, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Will have to keep an eye on this Yea that -PNA just wants to keep coming back may be ok enough though if we can keep it more neutral like the Euro tries to show this would set up a fast jet across the SE US and depending on where it sets up depends on where the cold is. The Pac NW may be in for another round of snows to coastal regions with that look of a -EPO/ neutral or negative PNA. Cold dumps into the mountains and SW cooler in the upper midwest and average in the east. Ill take it can mange something progressive with the fast jet but has a very stationary boundary look with moisture potential overriding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al_Czervik Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 24 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Will have to keep an eye on this I think winter will be making a comeback in Feb. As pointed out by others, besides the Christmas cold, it has been warmer east of the Rockies. To go through whole winter without a month of snow or cold only happens out west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 14, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 14, 2023 I will say this it certainly has been a wild winter so far in the idea that we have only received a trace of snow meaning at best a coating but im pretty sure it has only been flurries at least in the city. It would really be something to go the entire month of January with not even a trace of snow as well. Quite the interesting 500mb anomaly since December 1st as we approach the halfway point in Meteorological winter. Also the last 30 and 60 days temp wise across the US. Couldnt get 45 days was not an option but you get the idea lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 9 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: I will say this it certainly has been a wild winter so far in the idea that we have only received a trace of snow meaning at best a coating but im pretty sure it has only been flurries at least in the city. It would really be something to go the entire month of January with not even a trace of snow as well. Quite the interesting 500mb anomaly since December 1st as we approach the halfway point in Meteorological winter. Also the last 30 and 60 days temp wise across the US. Couldnt get 45 days was not an option but you get the idea lol Admittedly tooting my own horn here, but this is what I was thinking back in October biggest difference is blocking over eastern Canada has been more intense than Northern Pacific blocking. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 14, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 14, 2023 (edited) 5 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said: Admittedly tooting my own horn here, but this is what I was thinking back in October biggest difference is blocking over eastern Canada has been more intense than Northern Pacific blocking. Unfortunately cant get it to go to 90N... Edit: got it but takes away some of the detail Edited January 14, 2023 by so_whats_happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 2 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: That would be a sight for sore eyes once we got closer I don't trust MJO forecast for tomorrow & I sure don't trust it that far away, lol. But it would be a welcomed sight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 On the JAN 22-23 storm this was last night EPS control run: That's only 8 days away. So something to watch. The control was not the only ensemble show this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 On 1/11/2023 at 2:09 PM, Grace said: To work through the model noise I'd recommend looking at East Asia as another tool. It did great in late NOV/early DEC when models were sending mixed signals. Shows the initial cool out west then eventually drops hammer further east with what looks like 3, maybe 4 winter storm chances. I probably would not take anything outside 10 days as gospel but I've provided Day 4-15. This would translate to roughly JAN 22- FEB 4. It's there...just need a little cooperation on temps, and I mean just a little. I think the last of the 3 has more potential with Arctic air involved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 17 minutes ago, Grace said: It's there...just need a little cooperation on temps, and I mean just a little. I think the last of the 3 has more potential with Arctic air involved. I get oofed even more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Also, 30 inches for @Ingyball on the 12z CMC, lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 14, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 14, 2023 3 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: Admittedly tooting my own horn here, but this is what I was thinking back in October biggest difference is blocking over eastern Canada has been more intense than Northern Pacific blocking. After lunch decided to run it from beginning of October until now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 24 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: After lunch decided to run it from beginning of October until now Hmmm, I guess that means North Pacific ridging was more intense in October and November than it was in December and January. It's certainly possible that North Pacific ridging becomes more common again in February and March. At least it supports the idea that the late month pattern could have staying power ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 1/14 12Z NAEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 43 minutes ago, RobB said: 1/14 12Z NAEFS Bring in the Colder Air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: After lunch decided to run it from beginning of October until now That looks pretty familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 12z Canadian still will not cave to a strong SE ridge. Days 10-15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 8 minutes ago, Grace said: 12z Canadian still will not cave to a strong SE ridge. Days 10-15 CFS JAN 21-28 JAN 28-FEB 6 Mixed signals...hopefully the models will come into agreement by Day 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 1 hour ago, Grace said: CFS JAN 21-28 JAN 28-FEB 6 Mixed signals...hopefully the models will come into agreement by Day 10 The CFS has the "Super Omega -EPO Alaska Ridge", my goodness. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Frustrating...make up your mind. I like the last to runs suppressing ridge more 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 15, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 15, 2023 2 hours ago, Grace said: Frustrating...make up your mind. I like the last to runs suppressing ridge more That se ridge may play an integral part in slowly snowing up the lower 48. Each passing storm should slowly move south with snow dropping nw. We may have a storm around the 23-25 to watch. The 19-20th storm is interesting but think we are just a little too warm for most. If we get a quicker coastal transfer and less robust inland storm its possible we see our first little bit of measurable snow east of the apps. That ridge will set up a battle ground with pieces of energy riding along it. The question of course just how far north or south it is. But as impressive as the cold gets to building up in Canada one can assume later storms will have more cold at play. Gotta break at some point right lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 1/15 0Z NAEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 (edited) Canadian has been on a roll for MBY for several runs now.. Sorry OHV Edited January 15, 2023 by StLweatherjunkie 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wally Ho Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Is a meteorologist named Eric Webb worth his salt? He seems knowledgeable and agenda-less, while empathetic to winter weather enthusiasts. I imagine one of you folks savvy with cutting/pasting tweets may be eager to share the man’s thoughts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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