RobB Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1/13 0Z NAEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 (edited) Classic ICE STORM pattern EDIT: After looking at a the EPS ensembles just about all 51 have winter storms, many with a setup with snow on northern precip shields then strong icing below that. Just kind of confirms that particular 0z look. Edited January 13, 2023 by Grace 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 (edited) 37 minutes ago, Grace said: Classic ICE STORM pattern Both GEFS & Euro have that pattern, the Canadian ensembles not having it & keep SE ridge suppressed. Now the question is are the ensemble showing a LA Nina bias or is it reality. Maybe a little bit of both? The reason I say that if you look at East Asia it doesn't need it 1st show at the beginning of the pattern change the ridge influence although weak in what would translate to JAN 22-27 but around 27th to finish out JAN the hammer drops.. This is clearly seen compliments of the 0Z European East Asia forecast: So it's possible the Canadian ensembles are seeing what will happen & causing it to be earlier with no ridge & the Euro & GEFS are seeing the earlier & taking it out to far. Euro & Canadian are both cold the difference is the Canadian is a snow storm pattern while the Euro sets up a warm air overruning cold air/ice storm pattern. EDIT: it's also possible ridge influence comes & goes...comes & goes & ensembles are trying to make sense of that as well. Edited January 13, 2023 by Grace 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Only 5 more days of torch to go (hopefully). Concerned about the rain Monday, as that could be the knockout blow to what ice has survived the past 17 days of April-like weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 10 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: Only 5 more days of torch to go (hopefully). Concerned about the rain Monday, as that could be the knockout blow to what ice has survived the past 17 days of April-like weather. Where are you located again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Where are you located again Pewaukee, WI (just west of Milwaukee) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 (edited) 15 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: Pewaukee, WI (just west of Milwaukee) thats right, yes your ice fishing season is a bit longer than here in Ohio 😂I was able to make it out 2 days post Christmas cold before the torch settled in. I am hopeful to get back out again this year but its also not going to happen where 7'' builds in 4-5 days, around here, that was unprecedented. So we'll need a steady 2 week cold snap Edited January 13, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 If cold is coming end of January, the GFS OP certainly doesn't see it, at least not yet. More of the same pattern (rain every 3-5 days) through end of the month if it were to be believed. But ensembles might be more reliable in these type of scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 25 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: thats right, yes your ice fishing season is a bit longer than here in Ohio 😂I was able to make it out 2 days post Christmas cold before the torch settled in. I am hopeful to get back out again this year but its also not going to happen where 7'' builds in 4-5 days, around here, that was unprecedented. So we'll need a steady 2 week cold snap I keep thinking what this Winter would be if it wasn't for those 4 days around Christmas. It would be like an endless Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wally Ho Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 40 minutes ago, TheComet said: If cold is coming end of January, the GFS OP certainly doesn't see it, at least not yet. More of the same pattern (rain every 3-5 days) through end of the month if it were to be believed. But ensembles might be more reliable in these type of scenarios. Have faith. We have been assured by the cold weather evangelists here and in the outside world that winter’s wrath is preparing its charge. This has been written, so it shall be done. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 2 hours ago, Wally Ho said: Have faith. We have been assured by the cold weather evangelists here and in the outside world that winter’s wrath is preparing its charge. This has been written, so it shall be done. Do you ever do anything here other than to bash people who speak of cold? Why don't you do that on the warm side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wally Ho Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 9 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said: Do you ever do anything here other than to bash people who speak of cold? Why don't you do that on the warm side? I don’t mean to, really. Have some fun. Weather isn’t that serious, is it? Warm or cold, it is what it is. 🙂 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1/13 12Z NAEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 34 minutes ago, RobB said: 1/13 12Z NAEFS: Now, it's much more normal for me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 (edited) SOI index has taken a nosedive, daily value at -14.9 and it's not cyclone influenced. This drop is legitimate. Edited January 13, 2023 by Iceresistance Wrong number 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulaman984 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 3 hours ago, Wally Ho said: I don’t mean to, really. Have some fun. Weather isn’t that serious, is it? Warm or cold, it is what it is. 🙂 Respectfully, the trolling posts get a little old. That’s all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 12z EPS supresses the ridge more than 0z. 12z GEFS is disagrees 12z Canadian maybe a compromise of the 2. EPS & Canadian 2m temps are cold for the conus. GEFS pretty much just for west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 7 hours ago, TheComet said: If cold is coming end of January, the GFS OP certainly doesn't see it, at least not yet. More of the same pattern (rain every 3-5 days) through end of the month if it were to be believed. But ensembles might be more reliable in these type of scenarios. "In these types" ?? Ensemble means are more reliable in all scenarios. The OP is just one ensemble. The mean is 31 for GEFS & 51 for the EPS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 (edited) 31 minutes ago, Grace said: "In these types" ?? Ensemble means are more reliable in all scenarios. The OP is just one ensemble. The mean is 31 for GEFS & 51 for the EPS. Why do people/mets even bother looking at the Op then? Just curious. I can take it to a different thread if OT. Thanks for your inputs. Edited January 13, 2023 by TheComet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 4 hours ago, TheComet said: Why do people/mets even bother looking at the Op then? Just curious. I can take it to a different thread if OT. Thanks for your inputs. The operational run is theoretically the most representative of the real world and therefore provides a guess of what level of impacts to expect. Each ensemble member perturbs the initial conditions as a representation of uncertainty or measurement error and therefore provides a range of possible solutions. Most people here post ensemble means or averages of the range of possible solutions, which smooths the detail provided by individual members and operational runs. Those details change every run, but they still provide a ballpark first guess of how severe (or not) the impacts could be. It's not advised to get hung up on operational runs, especially beyond day 2ish. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 18z GEFS moved 12z Euro with ridge more suppressed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 0z GFS...Day 9...whoops 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Interesting...EPS MJO forecasted to NOT go to warm phases but instead heads back west towards West Hemisphere cold phases. 😀 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 👀 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 1/14 0Z NAEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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