Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 12, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 12, 2023 Still rather far out but starting to come within the 10 day range the warming looks rather significant and the double ridging pattern is nice to see. Maybe just maybe this is the first signs of a disintegrating SPV. This produces an enormous warming by the end of the run but again well past the hr 240 cutoff I personally use. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted January 12, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 12, 2023 43 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Still rather far out but starting to come within the 10 day range the warming looks rather significant and the double ridging pattern is nice to see. Maybe just maybe this is the first signs of a disintegrating SPV. This produces an enormous warming by the end of the run but again well past the hr 240 cutoff I personally use. I'm wishcasting warmth in early February so my flight for my big trip isn't impacted lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1. The cold signal in East Asia from the 0z Euro is impressive for about JAN 26-30. Keep an eye on that. 2. 0z EPS is colder & now showing an Arctic tap last week OF JAN 3. 0z EPS a large number of ensembles have a robust signal for some type of OV winter storm between JAN 23-25. Models may trend towards the interesting category over the next week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 3 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Still rather far out but starting to come within the 10 day range the warming looks rather significant and the double ridging pattern is nice to see. Maybe just maybe this is the first signs of a disintegrating SPV. This produces an enormous warming by the end of the run but again well past the hr 240 cutoff I personally use. 0z Euro 10mb has a similar look 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1/12 0Z NAEFS 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 It'll be interesting to see how snow cover changes between now and roughly Jan 23 when sustained cooler temps seem possible: FWIW, GEFS guidance seems to be shifting the ridge/trough couplet farther west: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 (edited) 58 minutes ago, RobB said: 1/12 0Z NAEFS Million dollar question: Does the highly anticipated end of the month cool down transition to another Western trough and atmospheric river? Edited January 12, 2023 by StLweatherjunkie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 12, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 hour ago, StLweatherjunkie said: It'll be interesting to see how snow cover changes between now and roughly Jan 23 when sustained cooler temps seem possible: FWIW, GEFS guidance seems to be shifting the ridge/trough couplet farther west: One could argue this could be the pattern that tries to take over once we resume MJO activity. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 (edited) Between now and the end of the 06z GFS run I count 6 storms with a 7th on its heals looking to affect the GL/east. Upcoming pattern looks active to say the least. Edited January 12, 2023 by SNOWBOB11 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 hour ago, RobB said: This truly is the "Murphy's Law" winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: This truly is the "Murphy's Law" winter If this winter was an El Nino, the snowfall would be even worse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: If this winter was an El Nino, the snowfall would be even worse! You think so? It seems like this winter is behaving like a Super Niño anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 46 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: You think so? It seems like this winter is behaving like a Super Niño anyway. Worse in terms of less snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 How much is someone willing to pay for this to verify? 😝 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 12z Canadian @ HR 276, JAN 24th 12z GEFS @ HR 276, JAN 24 1. All ensemble models have mean trough west & bring it East. 2. All strengthen blocking over Alaska 3. All bring Arctic air into CONUS but difffeences in timing & how quickly cold aur bleeds east. CMC ensembles are the fastest, GEFS Ensembles are the slowest. The coldest will be upper Midwest like normal, & it will bleed east especially after a system swings through. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1/12 12Z NAEFS: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 12, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 12, 2023 39 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: How much is someone willing to pay for this to verify? 😝 $1 per inch of snow I receive from the fantasy storm that it may produce. Would make for a great donation drive! ..Potentially. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 39 minutes ago, Grace said: 12z Canadian @ HR 276, JAN 24th 12z GEFS @ HR 276, JAN 24 1. All ensemble models have mean trough west & bring it East. 2. All strengthen blocking over Alaska 3. All bring Arctic air into CONUS but difffeences in timing & how quickly cold aur bleeds east. CMC ensembles are the fastest, GEFS Ensembles are the slowest. The coldest will be upper Midwest like normal, & it will bleed east especially after a system swings through. Someone has mentioned that this has the McFarland Signature, which means that the Coldest air will be in the plains if it launches here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 This is about as strong of an ensemble cold signal as you'll see that far out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 (edited) 12z EPS days 10-15 DAY 15, 2m Blocking on Atlantic side & north of Greenland much better with GEFS & Canadian. EPS quickest on cold air making it eastward. GEFS signal is a much more impressive signal but slower to bleed east. **Blend Edited January 12, 2023 by Grace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted January 12, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 12, 2023 I haven't had a great chance to take a look at this, so I'll do so at work tonight. Assuming the last couple of weeks of January is the stormy period here, then hopefully it's just cold and northwest flow here in the Plains early February, which wouldn't impact my travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 GFS OP seems to be an outlier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlizzardOf1978 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 An expansion of the cold is expected across eastern Asia into early next week and eventually North America, according to AccuWeather forecasters.https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/extreme-cold-grips-siberia-as-temperatures-fall-to-lowest-levels-since-2002/1467396?utm_campaign=AccuWeather&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR3o3VMnv5fs2UW_G2hu5-9aPC8kLTHRwtVqWtFM79LSMDEb5oZFNyIO8Po 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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