Guest Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 5 hours ago, RobB said: Warmest anomalies pulling a bit more east as expected. 1/10 0Z NAEFS At least there is cold showing up in the northern reaches of Canada now! It's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 no major call outs in the teleconnections remarkable neutral NAO after the mega - we at the end of December, pretty consistent slightly negative AO, rising +EPO then back to neutral, and an up/down neutral/negative/positive PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 That's more like it... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 (edited) The cold signal showing up in the H5 & 2m temps is much stronger on the 12z GEFS & Canadian ensemble mean. Beginning to have that "impressive" look. 🤞 Edited January 10, 2023 by Grace 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Canadian Ens... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Eye Candy...12z GEFS Ensembles This one is would do it...move it East 50 miles & better. Lol And it's still early in the storm above, here's the precip at that moment. All snow west of west Mississippi river & north of Ohio river...massive ice East & south of that. That's some eye Candy. 😆 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Less obnoxious reds in the recent NAEFS 1/10 12Z NAEFS: 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, RobB said: Less obnoxious reds in the recent NAEFS 1/10 12Z NAEFS: "Less obnoxious"...I like it 😄 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 16 minutes ago, Grace said: Eye Candy...12z GEFS Ensembles This one is would do it...move it East 50 miles & better. Lol And it's still early in the storm above, here's the precip at that moment. All snow west of west Mississippi river & north of Ohio river...massive ice East & south of that. That's some eye Candy. 😆 Would it be okay for that same general picture except it's over the plains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 9 minutes ago, RobB said: Less obnoxious reds in the recent NAEFS 1/10 12Z NAEFS: Can this be nominated as the "Funniest post of January 2023?" 😆 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 17 minutes ago, Grace said: Eye Candy...12z GEFS Ensembles This one is would do it...move it East 50 miles & better. Lol And it's still early in the storm above, here's the precip at that moment. All snow west of west Mississippi river & north of Ohio river...massive ice East & south of that. That's some eye Candy. 😆 Eye candy is right...This is ensemble 9 from COD site. Must be E-22 from NCep site...giddy up.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Would it be okay for that same general picture except it's over the plains? My bad...yes. tell me if that's good or you need another location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: Eye candy is right...This is ensemble 9 from COD site. Must be E-22 from NCep site...giddy up.. Actually...nope that's just one of the other good ones. Nevermind...yes. I thought you though it was the individual ensemble I posted. Edited January 10, 2023 by Grace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, Grace said: My bad...yes. tell me if that's good or you need another location The bottom image is fine, I will order a #22 please! 😝 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 hour ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Canadian Ens... such an odd phenomenon in the 4 corners area? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: such an odd phenomenon in the 4 corners area? It's been like that for 2-3 years. It's a model flaw. Maybe someone has read an explanation but I have not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 10, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: such an odd phenomenon in the 4 corners area? 850mb is like 4-5,000 feet high, a lot of that area is above that level, so it might be how that layer is depicted numerically by the model. 2 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1/11 0Z NAEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 3 hours ago, RobB said: 1/11 0Z NAEFS Keep improving, slow and steady wins the race. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 11, 2023 Euro weeklies seem to let up on the warmth the last two weeks of the run. I can live with +1 or +2 as it implies some below normal to offset the above normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 11, 2023 Euro monthlies also moderate the warmth, but still lean warm. Looking at past runs, January was completely underdone on the warmth, so keep that in mind... Feb run over run looks cooler over most of the country except the NEMA. March and April definitely cooler run over run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted January 11, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 11, 2023 I'm not surprised to see the prolonged torch with how fast the La Nina is decaying below the surface. This has been much more of a typical La Nina winter with the exception of how far south the water hose (pineapple express) has been. Usually, it's aimed at the PNW during La Nina. Anyways, ensembles seem to be hinting at some big storm potential for the Plains sometime around the 20th of this month + or - 3 days or so. The Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley can all cash in this more classic pattern i.e 2008 and 2011. I'd actually prefer that over prolonged cold like we saw in late January and February 2021/2022 in the Plains. It does give me concern for severe weather season. The Gulf is well above average already with no signs of a deep arctic plunge to keep it in check. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wally Ho Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 34 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Euro monthlies also moderate the warmth, but still lean warm. Looking at past runs, January was completely underdone on the warmth, so keep that in mind... Feb run over run looks cooler over most of the country except the NEMA. March and April definitely cooler run over run. All these Euro outputs are very interesting, thank you for posting them. Looks as if the overriding theme is: not very cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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