RobB Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al_Czervik Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 30 minutes ago, RobB said: If this occurs, then the past two weeks will be wasted in terms of the rain and precip in CA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 14 minutes ago, Al_Czervik said: If this occurs, then the past two weeks will be wasted in terms of the rain and precip in CA. why is that? This is the last 7 days and the next 10 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 the last 2 weeks, I'd say that was a success when adding in the next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wally Ho Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: Gotta love the Bastardis and Cosgroves (and others) of the world. When it finally gets colder (and of course it will - ever hear of reversion to the mean duh?) they’ll crow about how they called it all along - even though their “call” was for weeks earlier. A bunch of phony boobs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Not sure how 10” of rain now means it was for nothing? Sure it came down too fast to not cause floods/landslides but, those out there will take any rain I would bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 24 minutes ago, TLChip said: Not sure how 10” of rain now means it was for nothing? Sure it came down too fast to not cause floods/landslides but, those out there will take any rain I would bet. Yes they will, and honestly it's hard to feel sorry for those who choose to live out there. Often they move out there simply for the warm weather, so they have to understand that there are drawbacks to living in any climate. Same for those who relocate to FL regarding hurricanes, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 4 hours ago, Iceresistance said: JB always "locking-in" cold. I highly doubt any locked-in pattern. The continued up & down unless MJO gets stuck & it's forcing continues to interrupt the base state after this next cool down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1/9 12Z NAEFS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Grace said: JB always "locking-in" cold. I highly doubt any locked-in pattern. The continued up & down unless MJO gets stuck & it's forcing continues to interrupt the base state after this next cool down. That is the problem that he's having, it's the fickle MJO. I'm sure that even the most seasoned forecasters have issues with their forecasting when the MJO becomes more fickle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Unrelated to this topic but thought it would be of interest. 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 43 minutes ago, RobB said: Unrelated to this topic but thought it would be of interest. The Euro deserves the upgrade! 100 Ensemble members can greatly improve the forecast! (I think the 101 is just out of spite, and to be funny) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 hour ago, RobB said: Unrelated to this topic but thought it would be of interest. thats 4 pages worth of panels to post now 🤢 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 (edited) Looks like Phase 8 forcing to me? JAN, La Nina Phase 8 on left. 12z EPS 500mb on right "Almost" identical look the only problem I see were those thinking being in Phase 8 meant immediate reflection on the pattern. Edited January 9, 2023 by Grace 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Grace said: Looks like Phase 8 forcing to me? JAN, La Nina Phase 8 on left. 12z EPS 500mb on right "Almost" identical look the only problem I see were those thinking being in Phase 8 meant immediate reflection on the pattern. Yeah I've been watching this mean slowly roll down a hill run by run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Grace said: Looks like Phase 8 forcing to me? JAN, La Nina Phase 8 on left. 12z EPS 500mb on right "Almost" identical look the only problem I see were those thinking being in Phase 8 meant immediate reflection on the pattern. These are the times when the average or not so good mets are weeded out from the better ones. Thanks, I enjoy your posts @Grace Edited January 9, 2023 by TheComet forgot to add compliment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 10, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 10, 2023 11 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: the last 2 weeks, I'd say that was a success when adding in the next 10 days Nice yet still a lonnggg way to go. Year over year we are still well below average in many of these locations just goes to show how dry things were last year, of note the Pac NW still really below average. I would like to see some mountain snows in the interior continue than just the the sierras before the firehose gets turned off. Feel we may revisit this again in due time as a last hurrah of the -PDO pattern. The pacific is just roaring with winds and with the jet extension it is slowly but surely changing up the SST pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 (edited) 53 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Nice yet still a lonnggg way to go. Year over year we are still well below average in many of these locations just goes to show how dry things were last year, of note the Pac NW still really below average. I would like to see some mountain snows in the interior continue than just the the sierras before the firehose gets turned off. Feel we may revisit this again in due time as a last hurrah of the -PDO pattern. The pacific is just roaring with winds and with the jet extension it is slowly but surely changing up the SST pattern. Yeah I'd like to see this map again In a a couple weeks, alot of deficit should be wiped out most of the state (0-4), more in N CA. Edited January 10, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 (edited) Agonizingly slowly but surely LR 5 day averages are "lightening up" Edited January 10, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 (edited) 8 hours ago, Grace said: Looks like Phase 8 forcing to me? JAN, La Nina Phase 8 on left. 12z EPS 500mb on right "Almost" identical look the only problem I see were those thinking being in Phase 8 meant immediate reflection on the pattern. I'm trying to figure out why in all the years on weather forums I've never heard this discussed...or maybe I missed it. After seeing it in all the MJO research I've recently done, I had no idea that there is peer-reviewed literature that actually supports this. "A model MJO cycle was constructed from the global response to the heating, and both the tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies generally matched the observations well. The equatorial wave patterns are established in a few days, while it takes approximately two weeks for the extratropical patterns to appear." https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1256/qj.02.123?casa_token=AI8CTgn9gfcAAAAA:qtnWT60kmjfLg_okBvyGc9Gc8DbRubX9FSNPMlngRNI4W5RM2iySXqv1TiYuLctFf4fZRxffQtP73Bk Edited January 10, 2023 by Grace 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 10, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Grace said: I'm trying to figure out why a the years on weather forums I've never heard this discussed. After seeing it in all the MJO research I've done, I had no idea that there is peer-reviewed literature that actually supports this. "A model MJO cycle was constructed from the global response to the heating, and both the tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies generally matched the observations well. The equatorial wave patterns are established in a few days, while it takes approximately two weeks for the extratropical patterns to appear." https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1256/qj.02.123?casa_token=AI8CTgn9gfcAAAAA:qtnWT60kmjfLg_okBvyGc9Gc8DbRubX9FSNPMlngRNI4W5RM2iySXqv1TiYuLctFf4fZRxffQtP73Bk Oh yea this is an actual thing. I mention it from time to time but I use 1-2 weeks in general depending on the speed of the wave and amplitude of the wave. Higher amplitude better impact result from it, faster/slower basically how quickly we transition in the pattern. Would also like to note since we have had some cooling take place in 3/4/5 region of the tropics we may not be circling back through those as easily. 7/8 has also warmed as well as 1 over the last 30 days. Could lead to a fun repeat pattern since we seem to be in a loop with each MJO wave for now until the Nina fully dies. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 (edited) Hmmmm.... Edited January 10, 2023 by StormfanaticInd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Warmest anomalies pulling a bit more east as expected. 1/10 0Z NAEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 6 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Oh yea this is an actual thing. I mention it from time to time but I use 1-2 weeks in general depending on the speed of the wave and amplitude of the wave. Higher amplitude better impact result from it, faster/slower basically how quickly we transition in the pattern. Would also like to note since we have had some cooling take place in 3/4/5 region of the tropics we may not be circling back through those as easily. 7/8 has also warmed as well as 1 over the last 30 days. Could lead to a fun repeat pattern since we seem to be in a loop with each MJO wave for now until the Nina fully dies. I can be a little slow to the party sometimes, lol. I hope you're correct on repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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