StormfanaticInd Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 (edited) Some improvements but still not all that good. I will say the models *could* be missing something given that we are moving through the cold phases Edited January 8, 2023 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Seriously considering selling my snowblower. Haven't used it in 3 years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Some improvements but still not all that good. I will say the models *could* be missing something given that we are moving through the cold phases I posted a few days back and provuded examples that being in a particular MJO phase does not create an immediate atmospheric response. Every single La Nina that went through a phase 8 has a lagged response. Even our DEC cold was more than likely a lagged response to MJO. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 46 minutes ago, Grace said: I posted a few days back and provuded examples that being in a particular MJO phase does not create an immediate atmospheric response. Every single La Nina that went through a phase 8 has a lagged response. Even our DEC cold was more than likely a lagged response to MJO. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 EPS days 10-15, 500mb That's going to be warm 2m temp wise but begins to transition 21st & ends up like this 23rd. Temps will begin to cool. Canadian ensemble mean Hopefully we cool. CFS Weeklies get really cold 1st week through mid-FEB. Still a lot of uncertainties. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 EPS days 10-15, 500mb That's going to be warm 2m temp wise but begins to transition 21st & ends up like this 23rd. Temps will begin to cool. Canadian ensemble mean Hopefully we cool. CFS Weeklies get really cold 1st week through mid-FEB. Still a lot of uncertainties. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 If the Euro is correct on MJO...its pretty good when it's simply circling in Phase 8 for days regardless of amplitude. Notice all the mber clusters there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 1/8 12Z NAEFS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 (edited) To out in perspective the NAEFS image above covers JAN 16-23. Does not contradict anything said. NAEFS probabilities will start gradually coming when you get to the DEC 20-27 period. I'm not talking dark blue...lol. EDIT: This post is not for Rob just everyone. Edited January 8, 2023 by Grace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 46 minutes ago, Grace said: To out in perspective the NAEFS image above covers JAN 16-23. Does not contradict anything said. NAEFS probabilities will start gradually coming when you get to the DEC 20-27 period. I'm not talking dark blue...lol. EDIT: This post is not for Rob just everyone. BTW, I certainly was not posting the NAEFS to refute your posts. I'm quite sure you were not thinking that but wanted to post this anyway. More coincidental timing of our posts 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 (edited) Reminder that above average temperature periods can still produce significant snowfall in the heart of winter... The following temperature anomalies still produce a decent 5"+ swath of snowfall according to the latest GFS Edited January 8, 2023 by MesoscaleBanding 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Anyone want to start a thread... 😝🤣 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Pghsnow said: Anyone want to start a thread... 😝🤣 I saw that when the model popped and thought "damn, one can only dream of that type of setup!" The storm at the gulf with the northern energy diving in from the Rockies screams "INCOMING!" Alas...that will not be there in two weeks, but if it were to be, what a fun time would be had. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cdfarabaugh Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Pghsnow said: Anyone want to start a thread... 😝🤣 I wanna see a 384 hour snowmap..........lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 8 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said: Seriously considering selling my snowblower. Haven't used it in 3 years now. Supply and demand, wait 😅 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 54 minutes ago, Cdfarabaugh said: I wanna see a 384 hour snowmap..........lol That storm would probably leave at least 50% of the country happy. Big ones are sniffed out early... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 2 hours ago, Pghsnow said: Anyone want to start a thread... 😝🤣 Here comes the Arctic Cannon Round 2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 9, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 9, 2023 3 hours ago, Pghsnow said: Anyone want to start a thread... 😝🤣 Don’t tempt me lol.. I started looking up teleconnections when I saw this. It is one of my life goals to start the thread that gets the #1 replies. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 28 minutes ago, Penn State said: Don’t tempt me lol.. I started looking up teleconnections when I saw this. It is one of my life goals to start the thread that gets the #1 replies. Just wait another 7-10 days and you'll be all set. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 (edited) 🙂 Edited January 9, 2023 by Grace 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 52 minutes ago, Grace said: 🙂 This has definitely been in the cards, the question I have is does this shake everything up completely, or is this another "blip" (5-14 days) before the Pacific rages again. I lean towards the latter, only because of what we have seen so far this year, but with little conviction. We've also seen events like this turn the West into a desert after starting off the season with strong precipitation totals in previous years. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1/9 0Z NAEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 9, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 9, 2023 8 hours ago, Grace said: 🙂 Yea ensembles starting to catch onto western ridge and retreat of the gulf of Alaska troughing. Looks to be around the 19th/20th timeframe. The last week of January may very well foster the idea of below average temps let see how it goes. Until then mid to upper 40's seem to be the name of the game. If we can get clear nights overall we can at least drop overnight temps a bit and allow a closer to average temp situation instead of constant +5-10 above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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