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Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks


NKYSnowLover

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36 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This winter is done for

This winter is not done. Not at all. Be patient & ignore all the people posting orange maps. Amazing a lot of same folks (twitter) never post purple maps. 🤔

Yea, it's anomlously warm. Like how many more posts & tweets do we need to see? 

Edited by Grace
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East Coast weather has been a snoozer so far this season. Honestly, with the instability in energy prices I’m not complaining too much about the warm temperatures…

 I’ve been spending my time of late gawking at the QPF for the West Coast and digging through the USGS arkstorm scenario publication. Definitely a real page turner!

 

 

 

 

Arkstorm.pdf

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7 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Going even further out😆😆🙄 🔥 image.thumb.png.76cfd8e06edbc8bd49f2eb81f54eed1a.png

 

Things are transitioning though JAN 23 through end of month. I've been saying this for a whole & now that models are beginning to show it there's zero talk about it. Just the negative stuff. But ok. It's fine. Let's ignore the 500mb look changing & focus on 2m temp maps. 😄

Wall to Wall DEC-MAR cold winters are rare. Wall to Wall warm is rare as well.  2014-15 had a torch DEC & then warm, but cooler into JAN & then end of JAN-FEB was really cold & snowy. I'm NOT expecting that but my point is we think of that winter as cold & snowy. Most of our good winters in reality only have periods of cold & snow. 

So JAN is warm now & next couple of weeks? Big deal. If it turns colder & we get some winter storms then you'll heal. 🙂

Edited by Grace
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8 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Going even further out😆😆🙄 🔥 image.thumb.png.76cfd8e06edbc8bd49f2eb81f54eed1a.png

Again, your talking about high 30s low 40s around here, not ideal, but overall a storm can still produce with the right track and your slowly starting to see cold filter back in to the PAC NW/MW and slowly bleed east.

gfs-ens_T2m_us_59.thumb.png.2be8538c02f599f96c544f109173f859.png

 

gfs-ens_T2ma_us_65.thumb.png.390735d2d01d32bf68e5dafc506a537e.png

And also to be fair, its worth calling out that temps for a couple days next weekend continue to trend downward further to normals behind the storm, no real significance but since we're (self included) quick to call out things going wrong, a bit of a positive trend, it could easily temper down the warmup between next weekend and the 20th too

gfs_T2ma_us_29.thumb.png.ea423102976ed8e6f08c5c7e7710c5d2.png

 

Edited by Ohiobuckeye45
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3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

image.thumb.png.acf3d7b084217c06aa72b17030e5c5a9.png

 

2 hours ago, Grace said:

 

Things are transitioning though JAN 23 through end of month. I've been saying this for a whole & now that models are beginning to show it there's zero talk about it. Just the negative stuff. But ok. It's fine. Let's ignore the 500mb look changing & focus on 2m temp maps. 😄

Wall to Wall DEC-MAR cold winters are rare. Wall to Wall warm is rare as well.  2014-15 had a torch DEC & then warm, but cooler into JAN & then end of JAN-FEB was really cold & snowy. I'm NOT expecting that but my point is we think of that winter as cold & snowy. Most of our good winters in reality only have periods of cold & snow. 

So JAN is warm now & next couple of weeks? Big deal. If it turns colder & we get some winter storms then you'll heal. 🙂

 

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