Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 7 minutes ago, RobB said: 1/6 0Z NAEFS: This might be the most 90-100 I've ever seen on this map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: This might be the most 90-100 I've ever seen on this map but again, I'd stress it looks worse than it really is, upper 40s maybe 50 is nothing to write home about, its just super warm for climatology. We were just at 60-65 three days in a row Edited January 6, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 (edited) Have a feeling looking at the above and below, January will be joining years passed in the "infamous categories". I'm on board with a week 3 pattern change though, but boy its a looonnnnggg time to get there Edited January 6, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Have a feeling looking at the above and below, January will be joining years passed in the "infamous categories". I'm on board with a week 3 pattern change though, but boy its a looonnnnggg time to get there I feel bad for you, you're warmer than mine per average temperature departure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just now, Iceresistance said: I feel bad for you, you're warmer than mine per average temperature departure! Potato pototo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 MJO has just crawled into Phase 8, it's not moving very fast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 4 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: It is also global not just NH. I would also presume lower atmosphere means BL but that varies too much so maybe 925mb and lower? With satellite based 'observation' it wouldn't be a constant elevation or pressure level and there are a bunch of assumptions baked into their 'observations' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 13 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: This might be the most 90-100 I've ever seen on this map I almost put that statement in my post. You are correct. Pretty crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 15 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: MJO has just crawled into Phase 8, it's not moving very fast though. If it keeps a slow pace, that's good news for winter lovers right? Could keep it out of phase 3 until Spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 hour ago, Grace said: Nope. UAH covers global troposphere. It also has the ability to cover all levels of troposphere & stratosphere which is more helpful in monitoring the global climate. And is better because you're not dealing with measuring stations surrounded by concrete or asphalt in in very urban areas that can kind of skew in a small degree. It's just another really good tool. You might can do some research here: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/ https://www.uah.edu/essc/weather-products/global-temperature-report Yeah, I know. I just want to see the same graph for land areas only, because not many people live on the ocean. Both in-situ and remotely sensed datasets have pros and cons. I think your claim that satellite data is better than in situ sites is very wrong though. Remote sensing is the cheapest option and cheaper is rarely better. In this case, there are many assumptions baked into remotely sensed temperatures that skew their measurements ... Likely much more than the UHI stuff you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 8 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: If it keeps a slow pace, that's good news for winter lovers right? Could keep it out of phase 3 until Spring? It could speed up into Phase 3 by February, but the MJO is the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Mind you all them reds and here I am this morning snow coming down dusting. Just cause we’re in this pattern it’s dead of winter folks doesn’t mean we can’t cash in somewhere although this isn’t a storm this morning is proof 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 11 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: From bad to worse. Or worse to worser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 (edited) 46 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: If it keeps a slow pace, that's good news for winter lovers right? Could keep it out of phase 3 until Spring? the fly in the ointment would be if the ECM transpired over the GFS in that its an incredibly weak phase 1/2 or even COD Edited January 6, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: the fly in the ointment would be if the ECM transpired over the GFS in that its an incredibly weak phase 8/1/2 or even COD The MJO is going to be overridden in the short term by the supercharged pac jet anyway, so I'm more thinking long term...if the MJO stays out of Phase 3 in early Feb, maybe that could at least save the first half of February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 (edited) 6 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: The MJO is going to be overridden in the short term by the supercharged pac jet anyway, so I'm more thinking long term...if the MJO stays out of Phase 3 in early Feb, maybe that could at least save the first half of February? I'm not so sure its overridden as much as there's just a lag (credit to @Grace analysis from yesterday), that cannot be confirmed or denied for 2.5 more weeks. But if the phase 8 effects are just indeed delayed, then so would to the effects of movement in to phase 1/2 (favorable) and even in to 3 (favorable for Feb, location dependant) Edited January 6, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 I'm also of the opinion here that everyone on social media beating the drum about those "searching for cold" I've not seen anything point to the fact that its coming within the timeframes that are being claimed (within the next 2 weeks). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 (edited) Lots of unhappy snow lovers with nothing on the models leads to lots of “warm/hot winters over posts”. That’s what I’m going to tell myself anyway. Winters over sometime in March for my area 🤣. Snow or no snow. Talking to coworkers last week about plans for this week the consensus was this week was warm and dry. Well it’s warm but it sure wasn’t dry this week, happy snow hunting. Edited January 6, 2023 by TLChip 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: I'm also of the opinion here that everyone on social media beating the drum about those "searching for cold" I've not seen anything point to the fact that its coming within the timeframes that are being claimed (within the next 2 weeks). For the record, I'm not one saying "big cold" is coming but that a more favorable pattern will emerge in the JAN 22-25 time frame that will mature in that last week. Upper Midwest cold bleeding east is the safe bet but who knows. I don't think anyone can predict how cold. DEC surprised most of us in severity. The Arctic unloaded in early NOV & many said it would take a long, long time to replenish. It did. Ot take too long to unload again. I certainly would not expect that kind of cold again throughout the rest of winter but I might be wrong. Edited January 6, 2023 by Grace 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 (edited) Beginnings of some transition by JAN 22??Maybe subtle signs on 12z GEFS & CMC Means: Too early to say for sure but something to watch. East Asia has a strong system & cold front move through JAN 15-16 so it might support the GEFS & CMC ensemble mean beginning of some kind of transition. East Asia Rule is 6-10 days. Edited January 6, 2023 by Grace 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1/6 12Z (Ground Hog Day 😉 ) NAEFS 1 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 (edited) 23 hours ago, MaineJay said: That storm did a number on us in the warm sector as well. 60-90mph winds (and that's excluding what happens on Mt Washington). I didn't have any trees come down in my yard, but did lose power for a couple days. There's lots of "widow makers" around, uprooted and snapped trees still hung up, waiting to fall. Any sticky, wet snow could be pretty problematic round here. The blizzard gave my area highly variable lake-enhanced snow with 12+ downtown ~6-8" thirty miles south and 36"+ thirty miles east. Visibility was garbage for 24+ hours even though snowfall wasn't too intense where I was. We did however get over a foot of wet snow late last Tuesday through early Thursday and very little wind with temperatures staying several (or more) degrees below freezing afterwards led to good photo ops. I'm guessing I shoveled 16"+ off this porch with ratios near or maybe lower than 10:1 Oh and then why not, even with the stupid dumpster: Definitely the best snowpack for the first week of January for the three years I've been here so far. The Jan 13th system seems to be trending more favorable for my area too. The current snow cover gradient definitely favors GLCs: Edited January 7, 2023 by StLweatherjunkie 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 13 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said: The blizzard gave my area highly variable lake-enhanced snow with 12+ downtown ~6-8" thirty miles south and 36"+ thirty miles east. Visibility was garbage for 24+ hours even though snowfall wasn't too intense. We did however get over a foot of wet snow last late Tuesday through early Thursday and very little wind with temperatures staying several (or more) degrees below freezing afterwards is leading to good photo ops: I'm guessing I shoveled 16"+ off this porch with ratios near or maybe lower than 10:1 Oh and then why not: So jealous 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 7, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 7, 2023 27 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said: The blizzard gave my area highly variable lake-enhanced snow with 12+ downtown ~6-8" thirty miles south and 36"+ thirty miles east. Visibility was garbage for 24+ hours even though snowfall wasn't too intense. We did however get over a foot of wet snow last late Tuesday through early Thursday and very little wind with temperatures staying several (or more) degrees below freezing afterwards is leading to good photo ops: I'm guessing I shoveled 16"+ off this porch with ratios near or maybe lower than 10:1 Oh and then why not: I got lucky with the 12/16-17 storm. I got a foot, but there was only 2-3" in the southern part of my town. It was definitely less than 10:1. Wasn't fun to move. You're blizzard gave me 3"+ of 50° rain that chewed right through all of it though. Since we are sharing snow pics 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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