Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[ClicheVortex2014]

Quite the significant drought in the central US. Something to consider for the winter, assuming it doesn't get much better. I'm not so sure that it won't get better but just in case

 

 

The worst of the drought is west of there. The extreme drought in the Central Plains is now, arguably, more widespread than the West Coast coming into the West's rainy season.

[Iceresistance]

Just now, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Quite the significant drought in the central US. Something to consider for the winter, assuming it doesn't get much better. I'm not so sure that it won't get better but just in case

 

 

The worst of the drought is west of there. The extreme drought in the Central Plains is now, arguably, more widespread than the West Coast coming into the West's rainy season.

Another Supply Chain Crisis incoming if the weather does not correct itself.

[Tater]

On 10/15/2022 at 1:13 AM, Grace said:

There are a lot of signs that there could be a front-loaded winter for a change.

#1 Fall folage is way ahead of schedule here in Kentucky. A lot of that is due to dryness but nonetheless. 

#2 Our first freeze is going to be ahead of schedule. Could have multiple freezes over the next couple of weeks.

#3 BSR gives some hints of early season snows possibly in upper Midwest getting off to a possible quick start. 0z GFS hints at this as well. Things look to get more active finally. If that occurs air masses will be colder instead of moderating late NOV & early DEC. 

#4 My gut thinks so. I have not had this feel of a front-loaded winter in a while. 

Hopefully it's not too front-loaded. Early NOV could produce OV snows in a early cold shot & then moderate. Gut is cold late NOV & early DEC for the heartland. 

FYI, this is only conjecture...not much science in my thoughts. 

I've been wondering about that. I didn't look at any numbers to back up my gut, but we usually get a week or two of "Indian summer" in late September or October where temps are quite warm, but we never got it this year. It has just gradually cooled down without the big swings we typically see. Already had some light frost on a few mornings. I don't know if we're ahead of normal or how far temps are from normal levels, but something feels different about this winter.

Maybe my backyard will manage to miss out on the big snows in November and December instead of missing out in February and March. 

[ryanruck]

First flakes about an hour ago in SW Ohio, ZIP 45103. Was pretty enthusiastic for a little bit! 😄

 

(Sorry for the iPotato quality, the protector on my case is scratched up)

[MaineJay]

Reminds me of the days leading up to the start of football season. We all think our team has a shot at the Superbowl.

[Hiramite]

2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Reminds me of the days leading up to the start of football season. We all think our team has a shot at the Superbowl.

As a Lions fans, I respectfully disagree.

This is an interesting, yet expected graphic.  (I do wish he should 76-77 and 77-78 when the pattern was "locked" for quite awhile.)

 

 

Edited October 18, 2022 by Hiramite

[ryanruck]

11 hours ago, ryanruck said:

First flakes about an hour ago in SW Ohio, ZIP 45103. Was pretty enthusiastic for a little bit! 😄

 

(Sorry for the iPotato quality, the protector on my case is scratched up)

Regarding last night's flakes:

Fox 19: Earliest Snow Of Season Ever (In Cincinnati) Blows In

[Iceresistance]

 

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

 

What is interesting about this year in the southern hemisphere is the cold region between Australia and South America downstream from the Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption. Not only are the waters relatively cooler in that region versus the other years but the ice is rather anomalous in that region as well compared with the rest of the ice pack.

 

You can also see a relatively similar pattern to 2020-2021 in the north pacific with a pseudo +PDO look  which could cause quite the storm train into the Bering sea region. This argues the potential for a solid -EPO/ +PNA pattern to try and setup as move through time. Combined with the anomalous waters just south of Greenland which at this time last year was over much of Canadian waters and the NW Atlantic this may help enhance an actual baroclinic zone off land in a our fairly typical region along the coast. Just thoughts for now of course. The waters off the east coast have really dropped over the last few weeks. Still really warm but if we can get some solid NW wind events over the next month this could only help the situation. Still liking the idea of a rather +NAO as we move through winter but can't argue the potential of a period or two of -NAO thrown in.

 

To also add it looks as though models in the long range are starting to pick up on the idea of the MJO in 6 (we may not get to 7 which is about as typical as it has been the last few years with the Nina). As we move into November in an -ENSO state we find quite the ridge potential showing up in the center of the country and pushing into the east at times which would offer up warmth into the central portion of the country and lakes and northern New England while this may keep the immediate NE/MA kinda dreary but still average to just above average as we move into November. Severe weather outbreak into the midwest and TN river valley?? I hope not.

[Iceresistance]

59 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

What is interesting about this year in the southern hemisphere is the cold region between Australia and South America downstream from the Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption. Not only are the waters relatively cooler in that region versus the other years but the ice is rather anomalous in that region as well compared with the rest of the ice pack.

 

You can also see a relatively similar pattern to 2020-2021 in the north pacific with a pseudo +PDO look  which could cause quite the storm train into the Bering sea region. This argues the potential for a solid -EPO/ +PNA pattern to try and setup as move through time. Combined with the anomalous waters just south of Greenland which at this time last year was over much of Canadian waters and the NW Atlantic this may help enhance an actual baroclinic zone off land in a our fairly typical region along the coast. Just thoughts for now of course. The waters off the east coast have really dropped over the last few weeks. Still really warm but if we can get some solid NW wind events over the next month this could only help the situation. Still liking the idea of a rather +NAO as we move through winter but can't argue the potential of a period or two of -NAO thrown in.

 

To also add it looks as though models in the long range are starting to pick up on the idea of the MJO in 6 (we may not get to 7 which is about as typical as it has been the last few years with the Nina). As we move into November in an -ENSO state we find quite the ridge potential showing up in the center of the country and pushing into the east at times which would offer up warmth into the central portion of the country and lakes and northern New England while this may keep the immediate NE/MA kinda dreary but still average to just above average as we move into November. Severe weather outbreak into the midwest and TN river valley?? I hope not.

Oh no, not another December 2021!

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

Oh no, not another December 2021!

Well we can't say every event will be like December 2021 or April 2011 but the pattern coming up could suggest at least a severe weather potential with a trough in the west and ridging through much of the east except Maine area. We are still quite a ways out from that potential but if the plots are an indication of what may be to come it would be best for folks to watch out just in case. Have to see how we go through much of this week. With a -PNA trying to be forecasted into the end of the month and relaxing of the -NAO and neutral AO pattern the PNA will be the main driver so it seems. That means trough west ridge east, not to say in the SE/ MA area the ridge can't get undercut as has been the case many times but bodes well on the idea of warmth through much of the plains and TN river valley into the lakes. With that idea and a ramping jet there is that potential that will exist. 

Im sure the drought conditions in much of the middle portions of the country will play a solid role in limiting major potential of severe weather. Hopefully this is a change to allow more rain into those areas. Many are solid 8-12" below on the year with some nearing 16"+ below average. The northern plains had it rough in 2020-2021 which seemed to fade a little as went through 2021 into 2022. TX/OK regions just had it rough after the last cold blast (Feb 2022). That will undoubtedly play a role this winter as far tracks are concerned. As for cold less moisture in the ground usually means more extreme temp variations across an area. It would be something for TX to have a 3rd year (in a row) of cold weather come in late winter.

[so_whats_happening]

7 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Well we can't say every event will be like December 2021 or April 2011 but the pattern coming up could suggest at least a severe weather potential with a trough in the west and ridging through much of the east except Maine area. We are still quite a ways out from that potential but if the plots are an indication of what may be to come it would be best for folks to watch out just in case. Have to see how we go through much of this week. With a -PNA trying to be forecasted into the end of the month and relaxing of the -NAO and neutral AO pattern the PNA will be the main driver so it seems. That means trough west ridge east, not to say in the SE/ MA area the ridge can't get undercut as has been the case many times but bodes well on the idea of warmth through much of the plains and TN river valley into the lakes. With that idea and a ramping jet there is that potential that will exist. 

Im sure the drought conditions in much of the middle portions of the country will play a solid role in limiting major potential of severe weather. Hopefully this is a change to allow more rain into those areas. Many are solid 8-12" below on the year with some nearing 16"+ below average. The northern plains had it rough in 2020-2021 which seemed to fade a little as went through 2021 into 2022. TX/OK regions just had it rough after the last cold blast (Feb 2022). That will undoubtedly play a role this winter as far tracks are concerned. As for cold less moisture in the ground usually means more extreme temp variations across an area. It would be something for TX to have a 3rd year (in a row) of cold weather come in late winter.

Just to throw some charts here. This was Nov 2021 and Dec 2021. Notice how the ridging pattern in the west was present in Nov which gave way to decent troughing into December. Not to say this pattern will follow exactly as each will have its own flavor. We are having a fairly similar approach of MJO that we did last year of going from 5 peaking in 6 early December before getting close to 7/8 by the end of the month. Would fit with the idea of some where we have cooler December at least early on.

Here is Oct 2022 so far. Clearly we aren't quite in the same ball park. Different times of the year probably plays the biggest role in that. The ridge is expected to relax in the west as we move through the month and the troughing in the east as well. Maybe more Labrador/ Southern Greenland ridging as we round the month which is +NAO pattern for sure.

Edited October 20, 2022 by so_whats_happening

[Hiramite]

Hot off the press.  I'm ok with "avg" or "EC".

 

Some of their discussion which mentions the AO forecast....

Quote

Although some of the participant models within the NMME and C3S suite maintained the colder signature starkly shown in last month's data typically associated with La Nina in areas of Alaska, Canada and the northern U.S., in general, the NMME overall ensemble mean probabilities are considerably warmer in this month's set of forecasts. For many of these areas in the U.S. and southern Canada, however, calibration based on historical forecast skill dramatically decreased probabilities and so confidence is low. Moreover, further inspection of 200-hPa height information from the NMME suite indicated that anomalous positive heights forecast at higher latitudes last month are reduced in this months forecast with a weaker mean Hudson Bay trough in the warmer NMME solutions. This strongly hints at a considerable change in the forecast AO phase over the winter months. Predictability of the seasonal AO phase is low. Given the reasons and associated uncertainty noted above, along with large areas of positive SST anomalies in both the north Pacific and Atlantic, incorporated in the CA statistical guidance, there was not significant changes at this time to the favored below-normal temperature forecast evolution from DJF 2022-2023 through MAM 2023 despite the warmer overall NMME solution this month.

 

Edited October 20, 2022 by Hiramite

[cperry29]

2 hours ago, Hiramite said:

Hot off the press.  I'm ok with "avg" or "EC".

 

Some of their discussion which mentions the AO forecast....

 

In other words… 🙂

[Ingyball]

I've been hyping up the winter some in the office this fall. I think the volcano will end up having big indirect impacts for the winter. The EU severe weather site had posted an article looking back at years where the southern hemisphere has significant stratospheric cooling through their winter and it usually preceded stratospheric warming in the northern hemisphere for our winter. On top of that I've seen mention with the warm waters in the Gulf of Alaska, which I agree with. I think we're going to see some -EPO regimes this winter unless we see significant cooling over the next couple of months. Finally, I think this upcoming storm system over the Plains is something we may see a few times this winter. Due to how wet the Southwest has been we've seen a feedback loop with a semi-permanent cutoff low that sits there. This will allow opportunities for phasing with the subtropical jet this winter. I think it could be an active one for the Plains, Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. Especially in terms of severe weather for the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Right now this is what I think will be the dominant storm track this winter. It's pretty typical of La Nina. Could be a risk of a suppressed track if the cold outbreaks do come. 

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, Ingyball said:

I've been hyping up the winter some in the office this fall. I think the volcano will end up having big indirect impacts for the winter. The EU severe weather site had posted an article looking back at years where the southern hemisphere has significant stratospheric cooling through their winter and it usually preceded stratospheric warming in the northern hemisphere for our winter. On top of that I've seen mention with the warm waters in the Gulf of Alaska, which I agree with. I think we're going to see some -EPO regimes this winter unless we see significant cooling over the next couple of months. Finally, I think this upcoming storm system over the Plains is something we may see a few times this winter. Due to how wet the Southwest has been we've seen a feedback loop with a semi-permanent cutoff low that sits there. This will allow opportunities for phasing with the subtropical jet this winter. I think it could be an active one for the Plains, Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. Especially in terms of severe weather for the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Right now this is what I think will be the dominant storm track this winter. It's pretty typical of La Nina. Could be a risk of a suppressed track if the cold outbreaks do come. 

I can see this from time to time. I wouldn't be surprised when we do get those cold breakouts if they focus in a fairly similar position to the last few years. The way the high pressures seem to be setting up over the next two weeks in the NW Atlantic could really show us how things go. Not to say we dont get periods of -NAO thrown in there with the -EPO but the waters are in a better position to drive storms up the coastal plain rather than the coast right now. See if we can cool things off a little bit along the east still and if we don't have the constant wall of 7/8 on the MJO plots.

Should be a fairly quick start to winter across the mountains/west and northern plains. I do believe the desert SW does start to dry out a bit with those warmer waters along the west coast. 

 

This would be really nice to see rains and build up of snowpack to fill the water tables a bit.

Edited October 21, 2022 by so_whats_happening

[Iceresistance]

I've been looking at the CFS model for while, I'm aware it has a very poor accuracy on the storm systems themselves, but it's really good with the patterns.

 

The CFS model is suggesting an active November with storm systems and maybe some snow.

[Grace]

 

[Grace]

 

[Al_Czervik]

On 10/19/2022 at 9:24 PM, Iceresistance said:

Oh no, not another December 2021!

It is highly unlikely we will see another December like last year east of the Rockies.  

I agree that I think we may have a chance with a true front loaded winter for once.

[Ingyball]

9 hours ago, Al_Czervik said:

It is highly unlikely we will see another December like last year east of the Rockies.  

I agree that I think we may have a chance with a true front loaded winter for once.

I actually don't thin this winter will only be front loaded assuming we see a rapid decay of La Nina like the seasonal models are hinting towards, If we move into neutral by February I think we'll see winter continue into March. A lot of it will be assisted by high latitude blocking and a weak polar vortex.

[Grace]

September 1 - October 22 500mb

 

Can't really find any La Nina for the same period resembling a match.

 

 

Edited October 24, 2022 by Grace

[Grace]

 

[Ingyball]

If we're throwing 2010-11 around... 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Groundhog_Day_blizzard

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Ingyball said:

If we're throwing 2010-11 around... 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Groundhog_Day_blizzard

Yep! February 2011 all over again! I remember that storm, all I can say is that storm was self-explanatory.