Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Grace]

1 hour ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

IF...big if...we can get a killer last week or so of January & an extended cold/snowy 2-3 weeks into Feb., I'll gladly suffer through this garbage pattern we're stuck in right now. I'm just getting so tired of putting all my eggs into the basket of a backloaded winter. Give me an epic heart of meteorological winter for a change, lol. 

 

Hey, I'm ecstatic that we've had 2 snows & about 5 inches for month of DEC. It's been a while here. 

Edited January 5, 2023 by Grace

[MesoscaleBanding]

42 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

Hey, I'm ecstatic that we've had 2 snows & about 5 inches for mother of DEC. It's been a while here. 

The pre-Christmas storm was nice...can you imagine the mood in this forum if that storm hadn't happened? 😱

Edited January 5, 2023 by MesoscaleBanding

[Cary67]

14 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

62 people died from that storm ... It would have been much worse, but then the storm disappeared?!?! 🤔

I should have been more specific. Was referring to the models depiction of a major storm blowing up over the Western Lakes inside 96hrs only to  trend it east and weaker till it bombed out way NE over southern Canada. That storm was more a giant wind machine for most of the midwest area and most of the snow was LES with the unfortunate deaths in Buffalo. Without the Lakes and LES it would have amounted to just a high wind event with wind chill warnings. Your location no doubt benefitted from LES

[StormfanaticInd]

This is just ugly folks

[StormfanaticInd]

Just now, StormfanaticInd said:

This is just ugly folks

At this rate Flowers will be blooming in a couple of weeks 🌼 🌸 🌻 😒

[Hassaywx1223]

6 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This is just ugly folks

Not going to lie though. I’ll sacrifice one winter to get that drought under control out west. Also to get some good severe weather 

[1816]

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This is just ugly folks

306 hour gfs ensembles. As good as money in the bank 💰

/sarcasm

[1816]

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

At this rate Flowers will be blooming in a couple of weeks 🌼 🌸 🌻 😒

This is not scientifically possible

[Guest]

19 minutes ago, 1816 said:

This is not scientifically possible

Neither is a solid month of temps 20+ degrees above average, but here it comes.

[StormfanaticInd]

1 hour ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Neither is a solid month of temps 20+ degrees above average, but here it comes.

Right!!! We are breaking all the rules this winter. Phase means torch now 🤪😆🤣🤣🤣

[StormfanaticInd]

1 hour ago, 1816 said:

306 hour gfs ensembles. As good as money in the bank 💰

/sarcasm

When you have this strong a signal this far out on a mean that's really saying something. Most likely will be even warmer 😭😭😭

[Iceresistance]

SAVAGE! Lol

 

[Grace]

55 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

SAVAGE! Lol

 

 

 This guy's over the top but I sure wanna see how all of those who give him a hard time on Twitter respond to that tweet. Simon Lee just scolded him the other day when the weeklies were not showing that & he posted a LR GFS 10mb but now that it's showing the SPV weaken significantly we'll see what he says now. 

Here was Simon's tweet & hecwaa taking a jab at Mark. Pretty hilarious the next weekly run shows the significantly weakened PV! 😆 A lot of those PhD guys on twitter take offense at anyone who says anything without a PhD. Well there ya go Doc. 🤣

 

Edited January 6, 2023 by Grace

[Ohiobuckeye45]

4 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This is just ugly folks

 

4 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

At this rate Flowers will be blooming in a couple of weeks 🌼 🌸 🌻 😒

yes but lets also keep in context what that looks like at ground level in mid January. 15-20 degrees colder than what the current torch just was here at mid to upper 60s. Doesn't make it better, but it's at least suppressed by the heart of winter

Edited January 6, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Psu1313]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

 

 This guy's over the top but I sure wanna see how all of those who give him a hard time on Twitter respond to that tweet. Simon Lee just scolded him the other day when the weeklies were not showing that & he posted a LR GFS 10mb but now that it's showing the SPV weaken significantly we'll see what he says now. 

Here was Simon's tweet & hecwaa taking a jab at Mark. Pretty hilarious the next weekly run shows the significantly weakened PV! 😆 A lot of those PhD guys on twitter take offense at anyone who says anything without a PhD. Well there ya go Doc. 🤣

 

What I will never comprehend is why some think that every SSW dumps cold air into their area. Chances of a cold snap can increase due to a disrupted PV, but that does not mean that the impacts are defined neatly.

[Grace]

Just now, Psu1313 said:

What I will never comprehend is why some think that every SSW dumps cold air into their area. Chances of a cold snap can increase due to a disrupted PV, but that does not mean that the impacts are defined neatly.

 

Absolutely correct! A severely disrupted PV might be better. SSW is a gamble. It's great when it pans out & sucks when it does not. 

But Simon has been dogging everyone saying anything about the SPV. So, yea it's funny. A true gotcha moment. "Experts" are not gods & a good dose of humble pie does them good to remind them. 

[Grace]

Global Temps for DEC barely above normal 0.05 deg C above per UAH Satellite-based:

[StLweatherjunkie]

9 hours ago, Cary67 said:

I should have been more specific. Was referring to the models depiction of a major storm blowing up over the Western Lakes inside 96hrs only to  trend it east and weaker till it bombed out way NE over southern Canada. That storm was more a giant wind machine for most of the midwest area and most of the snow was LES with the unfortunate deaths in Buffalo. Without the Lakes and LES it would have amounted to just a high wind event with wind chill warnings. Your location no doubt benefitted from LES

I'm not sure specificity was the issue, because it was a massive blizzard.  Even though many of the headlines were about Buffalo, eastern Canada got absolutely crushed by the non-lake effect side of the storm. Sure the Midwest missed out on the worst of the blizzard, and IMHO we should consider ourselves lucky.

The major storm blowing up over the western lakes (that was only shown on a few model runs) would have almost certainly been even more deadly, destructive, and costly with Chicago, Milwaukee, Indianapolis, and many other smaller cities in the cross hairs. That's not too mention a crippling storm two days before Christmas would have screwed up travel even more than it was.

I understand that the large majority of us are snow weenies that only want our backyards buried, but sometimes missing a storm is a good thing. 

[StLweatherjunkie]

4 hours ago, Grace said:

Global Temps for DEC barely above normal 0.05 deg C above per UAH Satellite-based:

I'd be curious to see this graphic for land areas only:

[so_whats_happening]

32 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

I'd be curious to see this graphic for land areas only:

It is also global not just NH. I would also presume lower atmosphere means BL but that varies too much so maybe 925mb and lower?

Edited January 6, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[MaineJay]

56 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

I'm not sure specificity was the issue, because it was a massive blizzard.  Even though many of the headlines were about Buffalo, eastern Canada got absolutely crushed by the non-lake effect side of the storm. Sure the Midwest missed out on the worst of the blizzard, and IMHO we should consider ourselves lucky.

The major storm blowing up over the western lakes (that was only shown on a few model runs) would have almost certainly been even more deadly, destructive, and costly with Chicago, Milwaukee, Indianapolis, and many other smaller cities in the cross hairs. That's not too mention a crippling storm two days before Christmas would have screwed up travel even more than it was.

I understand that the large majority of us are snow weenies that only want our backyards buried, but sometimes missing a storm is a good thing. 

That storm did a number on us in the warm sector as well. 60-90mph winds (and that's excluding what happens on Mt Washington).  I didn't have any trees come down in my yard, but did lose power for a couple days.  There's lots of "widow makers" around, uprooted and snapped trees still hung up, waiting to fall.

    Any sticky, wet snow could be pretty problematic round here.

[MaineJay]

8 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

SAVAGE! Lol

 

Here's what he said 12 days ago.  At least he didn't #natgas it, energy traders are probably even bigger suckers than snow weenies for constant calls for a looming ice age.

  Not saying eventually it can't or won't happen, but I can't give credit for calling something, when someone always calls for it 

 

[Grace]

3 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

I'd be curious to see this graphic for land areas only:

 

Nope. UAH covers global troposphere. It also has the ability to cover all levels of troposphere & stratosphere which is more helpful in monitoring the global climate. And is better because you're not dealing with measuring stations surrounded by concrete or asphalt in in very urban areas that can kind of skew in a small degree.

It's just another really good tool. 

You might can do some research here:

https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/

https://www.uah.edu/essc/weather-products/global-temperature-report

 

[Grace]

1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

Here's what he said 12 days ago.  At least he didn't #natgas it, energy traders are probably even bigger suckers than snow weenies for constant calls for a looming ice age.

  Not saying eventually it can't or won't happen, but I can't give credit for calling something, when someone always calls for it 

 

 

No credit to him. He's overboard or seems it. However, he did predict the DEC big cold shot & took flack from the PhD guys as well. I don't know if he knows what he's doing or not. 

I just think its funny when "experts" dog someone then end up eating their words. More humility is needed. 

Edited January 6, 2023 by Grace

[RobB]

1/6 0Z NAEFS: