Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 (edited) 7 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: That's just brutal. If we lose January then most likely this winter will done for given the mjo progression into the warmer phases by February. Will probably hit the colder phases towards the end of February into March at which time we will be ready for spring lol You keep saying this but that's wrong. There are many reasons we could be warm but you saying "MJO progression into the warmer phases by February", show me what your talking about, because I posted several charts yesterday what a progression in to phases 2-3 mean for February and its not warm. All the MJO forecasts show some sort of 8/1 mid/late January followed by an early February 2/3... 4,5,6,7 would be the warm phases Edited January 5, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 (edited) 5 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: You keep saying this but that's wrong. There are many reasons we could be warm but you saying "MJO progression into the warmer phases by February", show me what your talking about, because I posted several charts yesterday what a progression in to phases 2-3 mean for February and its not warm. All the MJO forecasts show some sort of 8/1 January followed by an early February 2/3... Even if that's true that Pacific jet is in full control so it may not matter and then there is the strat polar vortex not cooperating. I was very optimistic before, that winter would return mid January on but not anymore. I guess the bright side is we will finally have an early spring Edited January 5, 2023 by StormfanaticInd 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said: Even if that's true that Pacific jet is in full control so it may not matter and then there is the strat polar vortex not cooperating. I was very optimistic before that winter would return mid January on but not anymore. I guess the bright side is we will finally have an early spring Spoiler alert, if the rest of winter goes the way you are saying, we will almost definitely not have an early spring. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, 1816 said: Spoiler alert, if the rest of winter goes the way you are saying, we will almost definitely not have an early spring. Spring and winter will just be flip flopped. Lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 10 minutes ago, 1816 said: Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers both endorse your comment. And the Minnesota Vikings, 0-33 at Halftime, and they still won. I've always thought that Phases 6 and 7 are the "Arctic Loading" phases, it helps bottle up the Arctic Air into a favorable position, and when the MJO is into Phase 8, it gets launched towards here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Iceresistance said: And the Minnesota Vikings, 0-33 at Halftime, and they still won. I've always thought that Phases 6 and 7 are the "Arctic Loading" phases, it helps bottle up the Arctic Air into a favorable position, and when the MJO is into Phase 8, it gets launched towards here. 🙄🙄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, StormfanaticInd said: 🙄🙄 The MJO is weak, it can get overpowered by unfavorable patterns this time around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 8 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: That's just brutal. If we lose January then most likely this winter will done for given the mjo progression into the warmer phases by February. Will probably hit the colder phases towards the end of February into March at which time we will be ready for spring lol That's about JAN 15th. Warm period will not end to approximately JAN 22-25. But even before then there's a shot the stars align & we squeeze a winter storm in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Grace said: That's about JAN 15th. Warm period will not end to approximately JAN 22-25. But even before then there's a shot the stars align & we squeeze a winter storm in. The only way that could happen is if the Supercharged Pacific Jet weakens, California is getting DUMPED on! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 8 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: The only way that could happen is if the Supercharged Pacific Jet weakens, California is getting DUMPED on! 👍 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: The only way that could happen is if the Supercharged Pacific Jet weakens, California is getting DUMPED on! Nothing says LA Nina like a supercharged pac jet🤔 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted January 5, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 5, 2023 The SOI index is beginning to come down after an impressive +++ run since mid-December. It'll be fun to see what happens over the next few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 5, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 5, 2023 (edited) There just isn't a whole lot of cold air in the Northern Hemisphere right now, most notably in the western hemisphere. That dump in December used up a lot of gas. You can see it in the arctic ice extent which has pretty much stalled. Gonna need a transpolar flow to tap back into Siberian cold if you want a cold dump again. Until then, we're going to be working with marginal temps even in the north reaches of the US. Looking at 12z GFS, looks like we get some of that flow and a decent cold pool starts building in the northern Canadian islands around the 17th. Edited January 5, 2023 by telejunkie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Larry Cosgrove has said that the California Firehose will end by Mid January, he is right about the January thaw (did admit that this came a week earlier than he expected it to be). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 5, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 5, 2023 Jeez...talk about a retreat of the jet stream....obviously just an OP run but reminds me looking at maps in '15-'16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 (edited) JAN, 2022 La Nina, JAN Phase 8 Composite JAN 9-16, 2022, Phase 8 JAN 9-16, 2022, 500mb pattern...not much reflection MJO Phase 8 forcing on pattern lag until JAN 22 & then clear reflection of Phase 8 JAN 22-30: JAN, 2019 La Nina, JAN Phase 8, JAN 5-12 JAN 5-12, 2022, 500mb pattern...no reflection MJO Phase 8 forcing on pattern lag until JAN 19 & then looked like this JAN 19-30: Notice the pattern although MJO had progressed to Phase 4,5,6 at the time but because the MJO response was lagged & the atmosphere was in response to Phase 8 forcing from 7-10 days earlier. I won't continue to clutter thread with to many examples but those are recent. You can go look at the others with the links I posted yesterday. JAN, Phase 8 years for La Nina's besides the 2 examples: 2011, 1997, 1985, 1979, 1976, 1975. Only 1975 did not have much of a recognizable response. NOW...stay with me. Paul Roundy's statistical guidance for now shows transition around JAN 25: Close up: Heck, it might nor happen but historical odds are on the side of a lagged Phase 8 response. I only posted this to show that no one is wishcasting for cold. There are solid climatological reasons for expecting that possibility. Will it occur? Maybe not, but if it does or does not what models are showing out to the 20th is irrelevant. Edited January 5, 2023 by Grace 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Not hanging up my hat for this winter yet…. Not super concerned with what models past 200 hours say, it’s not like any of them have been actuate that far out in the past 2 years? Sure I’d like to see more cold air in place but maybe we get a foot and watch it melt in 3 days in February, or maybe we pull a 2021 and Feb bottoms out and I got snow IMBY for a month🤷🏽♂️. Huge thanks to those posting in this thread and all the great ENSO information! @Gracegoing through the archives the past 2 days😵 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlizzardOf1978 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Why in 2023 are these models so inaccurate? I have been looking at these weather models since 2009 and actually I don't see a lot of difference, this is 2023, I think the entire operation and function of meteorology needs to be redone and rethought, too many people are dying because of the lack of accuracy and preciseness, it's an f-ing guessing game and in some cases people's lives are on the line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 34 minutes ago, TheBlizzardOf1978 said: Why in 2023 are these models so inaccurate? I have been looking at these weather models since 2009 and actually I don't see a lot of difference, this is 2023, I think the entire operation and function of meteorology needs to be redone and rethought, too many people are dying because of the lack of accuracy and preciseness, it's an f-ing guessing game and in some cases people's lives are on the line. I doubt funding for research and development of the models is a high priority for anyone. Unfortunately. Until the weather version of Elon musk comes along with unlimited pockets it probably won't change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1/5 12Z NAEFS. Missed a couple of these as it has been damn busy at work. Have a good evening all! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 21 minutes ago, RobB said: 1/5 12Z NAEFS. Missed a couple of these as it has been damn busy at work. Have a good evening all! Can't they find shades of red that are maybe even a little darker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 4 hours ago, Grace said: JAN, 2022 La Nina, JAN Phase 8 Composite JAN 9-16, 2022, Phase 8 JAN 9-16, 2022, 500mb pattern...not much reflection MJO Phase 8 forcing on pattern lag until JAN 22 & then clear reflection of Phase 8 JAN 22-30: JAN, 2019 La Nina, JAN Phase 8, JAN 5-12 JAN 5-12, 2022, 500mb pattern...no reflection MJO Phase 8 forcing on pattern lag until JAN 19 & then looked like this JAN 19-30: Notice the pattern although MJO had progressed to Phase 4,5,6 at the time but because the MJO response was lagged & the atmosphere was in response to Phase 8 forcing from 7-10 days earlier. I won't continue to clutter thread with to many examples but those are recent. You can go look at the others with the links I posted yesterday. JAN, Phase 8 years for La Nina's besides the 2 examples: 2011, 1997, 1985, 1979, 1976, 1975. Only 1975 did not have much of a recognizable response. NOW...stay with me. Paul Roundy's statistical guidance for now shows transition around JAN 25: Close up: Heck, it might nor happen but historical odds are on the side of a lagged Phase 8 response. I only posted this to show that no one is wishcasting for cold. There are solid climatological reasons for expecting that possibility. Will it occur? Maybe not, but if it does or does not what models are showing out to the 20th is irrelevant. CFS, JAN 24...lines up with Roundy's tool. Now this I'm going to share is ONLY for giggles. First week of FEB: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 😭 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, Grace said: CFS, JAN 24...lines up with Roundy's tool. Now this I'm going to share is ONLY for giggles. First week of FEB: IF...big if...we can get a killer last week or so of January & an extended cold/snowy 2-3 weeks into Feb., I'll gladly suffer through this garbage pattern we're stuck in right now. I'm just getting so tired of putting all my eggs into the basket of a backloaded winter. Give me an epic heart of meteorological winter for a change, lol. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 7 minutes ago, Grace said: CFS, JAN 24...lines up with Roundy's tool. Now this I'm going to share is ONLY for giggles. First week of FEB: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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