SNOWBOB11 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 hour ago, MesoscaleBanding said: LOL - 991 LP in eastern Kentucky produces rain all the way to northern Michigan 🤣 At least it’s good to see some storm activity. Low placement would probably produce more snow on the NW side than the LR GFS currently is showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 15 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said: At least it’s good to see some storm activity. Low placement would probably produce more snow on the NW side than the LR GFS currently is showing. No doubt - though it would be sick irony to get a decent storm track at the end of this long torch only for it to produce a cold rain 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 46 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: No doubt - though it would be sick irony to get a decent storm track at the end of this long torch only for it to produce a cold rain Not sure i'd even call it irony. I've lost track how many times something like that has happened. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 hours ago, MesoscaleBanding said: LOL - 991 LP in eastern Kentucky produces rain all the way to northern Michigan 🤣 Yeahhh, that’ll probably happen. Beautiful track, but cold rain for many in Mid-January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 4 hours ago, Grace said: PhD & true expert Paul Roundy says his tools show JAN 25 the transition point. Roundy's stat tools have colder pattern JAN 25-FEB 6. It warms FEB 6-13 then from Valentines Day until through end of FEB, 14-28 are dang cold. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 4 hours ago, RobB said: That's just brutal. If we lose January then most likely this winter will done for given the mjo progression into the warmer phases by February. Will probably hit the colder phases towards the end of February into March at which time we will be ready for spring lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 18 hours ago, Cary67 said: This is decidedly one of the few benefits this winter. Fill up those reservoirs out west. Would have to check precip totals so far but the forecast for AN precip this winter in the Lakes and OV doesn't seem to be panning out. Just had some good totals at ORD yesterday but winter really just mild and blah except for Xmas cold snap. And that was a major let down in models portraying a big storm only to see it disappear. 62 people died from that storm ... It would have been much worse, but then the storm disappeared?!?! 🤔 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 8 hours ago, RobB said: Nature does not want to comply with the typical patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 January 2021 featured a SSW, and it's effects were not felt until the next month. (February 2021) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 5, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 5, 2023 49 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: January 2021 featured a SSW, and it's effects were not felt until the next month. (February 2021) There's still no SSW progged. Some members show a reversal in early February, but we can't call every bit of warming in the Strat a SSW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 5, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 5, 2023 The EPO just isn't on our side. There's been no hint that a Hudson Bay vortex wants to even give us a cameo. Man that Pacific is pushy. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 I'd say the fat lady is warming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Outside of the storm chance next week this winter is over. I'm actually getting concerned about an early active start to the severe weather season ⛈️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said: Outside of the storm chance next week this winter is over. I'm actually getting concerned about an early active start to the severe weather season ⛈️ I’d say the first half of winter is basically going to be a dud but considering the second half is still 10 days away from starting and models really have a difficult time after day 10 then there’s no reason to write off the second half. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulaman984 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 6 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Outside of the storm chance next week this winter is over. I'm actually getting concerned about an early active start to the severe weather season ⛈️ It’s January 5th. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said: I’d say the first half of winter is basically going to be a dud but considering the second half is still 10 days away from starting and models really have a difficult time after day 10 then there’s no reason to write off the second half. If are torching in the cold phases it's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Giving up on winter in the first week of January is like saying because you fell behind two touchdowns by halftime the game is over. It's been proven wrong over and over yet here you are. I'm glad none of you were on my sports teams growing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 (edited) 4 minutes ago, 1816 said: Giving up on winter in the first week of January is like saying because you fell behind two touchdowns by halftime the game is over. It's been proven wrong over and over yet here you are. I'm glad none of you were on my sports teams growing up. The first half of the football game does not matter compared to the 2nd half, this strongly applies to the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season. (Not going after you, just solidifying your statement) Edited January 5, 2023 by Iceresistance clarification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Mulaman984 said: It’s January 5th. I see that but nothing is in our favor right now. Lol. That Pacific jet is on steroids flooding the country with mild air and overriding favorable mjo. I would love to be wrong though 😁 Edited January 5, 2023 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, 1816 said: Giving up on winter in the first week of January is like saying because you fell behind two touchdowns by halftime the game is over. It's been proven wrong over and over yet here you are. I'm glad none of you were on my sports teams growing up. We're down by 2 touchdowns at halftime and our star QB, running back, and the entire defense just left with ACL tears. That's about where we are right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 7 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: I see that but nothing is in our favor right now. Lol. That Pacific jet is on steroids flooding the country with mild air and overriding favorable mjo. I would love to be wrong though 😁 Yeah, this long range modeling is always so accurate 2 weeks or more out. No reason to doubt any of it. 🙄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 7 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: We're down by 2 touchdowns at halftime and our star QB, running back, and the entire defense just left with ACL tears. That's about where we are right now. Yeah, this long range modeling is always so accurate 2 weeks or more out. No reason to doubt any of it. 🙄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: The first half of the football game does not matter compared to the 2nd half, this strongly applies to the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season. (Not going after you, just solidifying your statement) Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers both endorse your comment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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