Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Cary67 said:

One of the more knowledgeable forecasters at Americanwx said Jan 10-20th timeframe not looking hopeful for winter enthusiasts. Maybe end of the month into early Feb. will offer another window. Unfortunately windows seem too brief last several winters. There have been a few winners. MSP up over 40" in seasonal snowfall this year already.

Crazy - I'm just Southeast of MSP and have had virtually no snow for 2 years running now. 

[SNOWBOB11]

Interesting look on the 12z GFS for a potential storm in a week from now for someone.

 

Edit - forgot a thread existed for around this time.

Edited January 4, 2023 by SNOWBOB11

[Ohiobuckeye45]

yeah despite the torch, it looks to get active here soon so some will get lucky being near climatological lows even running 5-10 degree above norms 

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

this looks to continue the next 2 days (through the east coast tomorrow) before it settles, but we're going to have a huge hole to climb out of to get back to normals. We would need another Christmas week ISH (not saying it has to be record breaking) to get back to norms for the month

 

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

this looks to continue the next 2 days (through the east coast tomorrow) before it settles, but we're going to have a huge hole to climb out of to get back to normals. We would need another Christmas week ISH (not saying it has to be record breaking) to get back to norms for the month

 

This is the Anti-Winter Cockroach Ridge! 😠

[Ohiobuckeye45]

hhmmmm.....starting to swing pretty "wide"......would certainly extend the amount of time spent in favorable areas, hard to look too far beyond what we would on an operational model 10-14 days so I wont worry about entering 3/COD yet

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Question for everyone, when looking at the 3 month avg chart in relation to MJO, I've always used the month of the forecast as the "middle month" But curious to know why there hasn't been something created that breaks it down by single month

 

 

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[StormfanaticInd]

29 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

hhmmmm.....starting to swing pretty "wide"......would certainly extend the amount of time spent in favorable areas, hard to look too far beyond what we would on an operational model 10-14 days so I wont worry about entering 3/COD yet

 

This just means more warmth this winter. It just wants to torch 

[Grace]

23 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Question for everyone, when looking at the 3 month avg chart in relation to MJO, I've always used the month of the forecast as the "middle month" But curious to know why there hasn't been something created that breaks it down by single month

 

 

 

Good question. I use the middle month as well on those. 

I like this source much better:

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

[Ohiobuckeye45]

3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This just means more warmth this winter. It just wants to torch 

8/1 isn't unfavorable for January, the point of the post was there is clustering of ensembles that swing it wider in to 8/1 which would mean more time spent in 8/1.....as winter moves on and you flip to the JFM, it becomes more favorable in 2/3

 

Edited January 4, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Ohiobuckeye45]

2 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

Good question. I use the middle month as well on those. 

I like this source much better:

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

interesting, bookmarked 👍

[Ohiobuckeye45]

4 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

Good question. I use the middle month as well on those. 

I like this source much better:

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

 

1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

interesting, bookmarked 👍

I always wondered where you pulled those 

 

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

 

I always wondered where you pulled those 

 

 

and how the border color corresponds to the "reliability" my mind is blown right now haha (green border = medium high reliability, blue = medium low)

[Ohiobuckeye45]

AO/NAO looks to be neutral +/- going in to mid Jan, but starting to look like a +EPO/-PNA combo. Like someone said before I think it was a tweet, something is or will be mis represented one way or another between the MJO and teleconnections 

 

[Grace]

FWIW...I had to take my mother in law to the eye doctor during my lunch. I sat in the car for an hour & I went through every single La Nina since 2010-11. Without exception the atmospheric response to the MJO averaged out about 8-14 days.

Also without exception there was not one single January that went through phase 8 in January that did not have a favorable wintry response afterwards. Not a single one.

 If I have time later tonight I might post all the info on here and show you.

 So MJO moves into Phase 8 by 12th. So I'd say based on recent La Nina's a response on the pattern into 3rd-4th week if we have one & based on recent La Nina's a response is likely. So start looking I'd say between JAN 21-25 for models...hopefully. 

[Grace]

35 minutes ago, Grace said:

FWIW...I had to take my mother in law to the eye doctor during my lunch. I sat in the car for an hour & I went through every single La Nina since 2010-11. Without exception the atmospheric response to the MJO averaged out about 8-14 days.

Also without exception there was not one single January that went through phase 8 in January that did not have a favorable wintry response afterwards. Not a single one.

 If I have time later tonight I might post all the info on here and show you.

 So MJO moves into Phase 8 by 12th. So I'd say based on recent La Nina's a response on the pattern into 3rd-4th week if we have one & based on recent La Nina's a response is likely. So start looking I'd say between JAN 21-25 for models...hopefully. 

 

I went all the way back to 1979. Biggest take away is not 1 single La Nina in Phase 8 in January that did not produce a wintry pattern. Take it FWIW. 

Here's tools to do it yourself:

Use MJO archives: 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

 

Daily composites:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/

 

For ENSO state:

https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

 

[StormfanaticInd]

3 hours ago, Grace said:

FWIW...I had to take my mother in law to the eye doctor during my lunch. I sat in the car for an hour & I went through every single La Nina since 2010-11. Without exception the atmospheric response to the MJO averaged out about 8-14 days.

Also without exception there was not one single January that went through phase 8 in January that did not have a favorable wintry response afterwards. Not a single one.

 If I have time later tonight I might post all the info on here and show you.

 So MJO moves into Phase 8 by 12th. So I'd say based on recent La Nina's a response on the pattern into 3rd-4th week if we have one & based on recent La Nina's a response is likely. So start looking I'd say between JAN 21-25 for models...hopefully. 

This will be the January that goes against the grain. 🙄

[TheComet]

2 hours ago, Grace said:

 

I went all the way back to 1979. Biggest take away is not 1 single La Nina in Phase 8 in January that did not produce a wintry pattern. Take it FWIW. 

Here's tools to do it yourself:

Use MJO archives: 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

 

Daily composites:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/

 

For ENSO state:

https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

 

As they say, sometimes the good snowstorms/wintry patterns are not forecast weeks in advance. 

[Iceresistance]

18 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This will be the January that goes against the grain. 🙄

And February will come back to Old Man Winter . . . 

Spoiler

. . . with a vengeance

 

[Grace]

45 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This will be the January that goes against the grain. 🙄

 

You know it!

I had a little time at 3 & looked back to 1975. JAN 1975 did not have very strong response. That's as far back as the archives go. 

Edited January 4, 2023 by Grace

[Grace]

PhD & true expert Paul Roundy says his tools show JAN 25 the transition point. 

 

[NWOhioChaser]

37 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

And February will come back to Old Man Winter . . . 

  Reveal hidden contents

. . . with a vengeance

 

That will last the entire month of March and beyond…😩

[Iceresistance]

Just now, NWOhioChaser said:

That will last the entire month of March and beyond…😩

But, when this La Niña dies away, there will be less torching! Hopefully.

[MesoscaleBanding]

LOL - 991 LP in eastern Kentucky produces rain all the way to northern Michigan 🤣