Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 3 hours ago, RobB said: I should just wait to see blues on the field before posting anymore 🙂 1/3 12Z NAEFS: I thought you were just putting the same one up every couple days. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 14 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: 🤷♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 21 minutes ago, Grace said: 🤷♂️ What's your point? The chart is showing a rising trend over 50 years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: What's your point? The chart is showing a rising trend over 50 years What did that have to do with December this year? What does any other DEC besides this year have to do with this thread? I guess my question is what's your point? Edited January 4, 2023 by Grace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 4, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 4, 2023 5 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: I really wonder how much that has to do with nighttime lows. I mean we are not immune to these 60 degree days but the overnight lows at least over here have been running the show in all seasons with warming up our average. I always find it odd we don't go back to show since the 1900s it usually always is around 1970 we cut it off. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Grace said: What did that have to do with December this year? What does any other DEC besides this year have to do with this thread? I guess my question is what's your point? Dont act like we haven't talked about historical winter trends in this thread like we have....forever lol. I found it interesting so I posted it We spent several pages discussing warming December's as of recent being the new normal, so now that another one is in the books it was added to the graph and shared. December is after all, part of winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 53 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: I really wonder how much that has to do with nighttime lows. I mean we are not immune to these 60 degree days but the overnight lows at least over here have been running the show in all seasons with warming up our average. I always find it odd we don't go back to show since the 1900s it usually always is around 1970 we cut it off. Probably lack of data, or data that was captured an entirely different way back then that would skew any comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 4, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) 31 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Probably lack of data, or data that was captured an entirely different way back then that would skew any comparison Maybe, the issue may just be consistent data but instrumentation was around at specific sites for quite some time. Not the ASOS we have today but still data was flowing and being gathered. It is rather difficult though to perceive anything but warming coming from one of the coldest decades we have seen in quite some time, not to detract from decent amount of warming we have done in the past 40-50 years. It is a shame to see though we have definitely followed suit for the past couple of Decembers with no snow. We had a trace (aka snow showers) that occurred this year. Honestly bouts of warm to me don't make it a super torchy December. Having more than half the month like we did last year with consistent temps in the upper 50s and 60s (consistently day after day of +10 anoms daily is impressive) now that was a torch of a December. Until we chop up these ocean anoms across the eastern seaboard we look to be stuck in the same situation for some winters to come. Weak Nino/Nina status may throw different flares of patterns but overall we may not remove these mild Decembers for some time. One nice thing about this map is the change up of the -PDO warm tongue that has held for quite some time in the western PAC seems to be cooling off over the long term. This may throw us into a different mode but will take some time with waters starting to warm up in the gulf of Alaska. Edited January 4, 2023 by so_whats_happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 The past several winters here in central Indiana have truly sucked. 😒 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) So much for phase 8,1 and 2 bringing cold🙄 Bring on spring at this point lol Edited January 4, 2023 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 4, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 4, 2023 Here is this gif to give some folks context of how much the stratosphere changes in time from 384 to current model runs at 240, the usual max time most should look at for clues into the a potential forecast. Bouncing around a bit of the SPV minor changes in positioning of the warming and the amplitude but as we draw closer to hr 240 it becomes less and less variable. This go around the model seemed to handle this occurrence rather well aloft it is at the surface things get messy. Now as a look into the potential future of said warming this definitely caught my eye a bit. Again still rather far out from any potential but something to keep an eye on as we have quite a bit of wave activity being produced in the troposphere to get this fun potential. We can't just expect every run to be perfect but when you start to see consistency it is nice to get a better idea of how things may go even this far out. This tells me the model is seeing this warming actually being quite the show but the look overall is still rather messy and we need to remember no SSW evolves the same way so using past situations may not go as expected. Just something to keep an eye on at this point. Leads to end of January early February and this would potentially indicate a top down warming which tends to have more pronounced immediate effect on the troposphere whether good or bad will yet to be decided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al_Czervik Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Let's keep this going. Much needed precip out west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 4 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: So much for phase 8,1 and 2 bringing cold🙄 Bring on spring at this point lol Bring on spring. On Jan 4 🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wally Ho Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 5 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: So much for phase 8,1 and 2 bringing cold🙄 Bring on spring at this point lol Oh my. 🔥 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 4, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 hours ago, Al_Czervik said: Let's keep this going. Much needed precip out west. Sounds like it's too much, too fast. I'd be nice if it extended and was more spread out into the Rockies to help replenish the Colorado river. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) Cold air sneaking around at times… overall still looks to trend on the warmer side. Edited January 4, 2023 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1/4 0Z NAEFS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al_Czervik Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 I find this intriguing after the storms and rainfall rec'd in this area. I can't remember Detroit ever having a drought like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 It's official, we had a 4 day winter this year! At least it fell over Christmas I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 I swear to God if winter gets it’s act together and we get sustained cold well into March leading into April…😡 I loathe backloaded winters where snows stick around for only a day or two but the cold lingers well into April. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 35 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said: I swear to God if winter gets it’s act together and we get sustained cold well into March leading into April…😡 I loathe backloaded winters where snows stick around for only a day or two but the cold lingers well into April. you know its happening, its truly the new norm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) pretty remarkable though how there's nothing off in the distance Edited January 4, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 4 hours ago, Al_Czervik said: Let's keep this going. Much needed precip out west. This is decidedly one of the few benefits this winter. Fill up those reservoirs out west. Would have to check precip totals so far but the forecast for AN precip this winter in the Lakes and OV doesn't seem to be panning out. Just had some good totals at ORD yesterday but winter really just mild and blah except for Xmas cold snap. And that was a major let down in models portraying a big storm only to see it disappear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: pretty remarkable though how there nothing off in the distance One of the more knowledgeable forecasters at Americanwx said Jan 10-20th timeframe not looking hopeful for winter enthusiasts. Maybe end of the month into early Feb. will offer another window. Unfortunately windows seem too brief last several winters. There have been a few winners. MSP up over 40" in seasonal snowfall this year already. Edited January 4, 2023 by Cary67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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