Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[RobB]

Back to the office today. Boo 🙂

 

1/3 0Z NAEFS:

[MesoscaleBanding]

FYI

 

[Guest]

8 hours ago, Grace said:

 

That's not true at all. 3, 4 does not kill winter unless other factors cooperate as well. Other forcings can mute the any MJO signal, especially if it's weak in amplitude. 

My point was whoever the dude was he could as well say 8,1 is going to bring cold just as much as 3,4 ends winter. That's fact

Agreed, but it seems now all it takes is for one factor to be unfavorable to kill winter. The stars need to align perfectly, otherwise the torch takes over.

[MesoscaleBanding]

Follow-up from Cosgrove:

 

[Grace]

26 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Agreed, but it seems now all it takes is for one factor to be unfavorable to kill winter. The stars need to align perfectly, otherwise the torch takes over.

 

I get ya!  The warmth right now is caused by nothing but the pattern. The global circulation right now is similar to a super El nino. A super El nino will mostly flood the United States with warm Pacific air because of the jet. Think back to 2015-16. 

Thankfully we're not in a super El nino and this is temporary but it is certainly annoying. There will be a lag in MJO response on pattern it appears. CFS...finally...finally has gradually been pulling trough further east from run to run as it increases ridging over Alaska. It took forever so hopefully this trend keeps pulling it further east. 

 

 

[Iceresistance]

40 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

I get ya!  The warmth right now is caused by nothing but the pattern. The global circulation right now is similar to a super El nino. A super El nino will mostly flood the United States with warm Pacific air because of the jet. Think back to 2015-16. 

Thankfully we're not in a super El nino and this is temporary but it is certainly annoying. There will be a lag in MJO response on pattern it appears. CFS...finally...finally has gradually been pulling trough further east from run to run as it increases ridging over Alaska. It took forever so hopefully this trend keeps pulling it further east. 

 

 

Going from west to east with this same setup is fine with me, need the ECR for me to really get the cold and snow.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Its more annoying the flaming torch is occurring in the heart of winter, I don't want a torch at all, but if its going to why can't it just be in Late Feb/early March where snow doesn't stick around long after it falls anyways. Why does it have to be during the climatological lows, best sun angle, and overall best time of year to track 😭

My God if it weren't for the 4-5 days of Christmas cold/storm, this winter would be starting off rivaling some of the most infamous torchy winters we've had recently. Any SSW wouldn't translate until February even if the hype was bought in to. So for any January pattern flip, the 1-2 weeks of the MJO in 7-8 seems like a lot of eggs in 1 basket considering the teleconnections don't appear to be a help with mostly neutral +/- levels, but if going to happen that way, the heart of January helps

 

 

Edited January 3, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Iceresistance]

3 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Its more annoying the flaming torch is occurring in the heart of winter, I don't want a torch at all, but if its going to why can't it just be in Late Feb/early March where snow doesn't stick around long after it falls anyways. Why does it have to be during the climatological lows, best sun angle, and overall best time of year to track 😭

My God if it weren't for the 4-5 days of Christmas cold/storm, this winter would be starting off rivaling some of the most infamous torchy winters we've had recently. Any SSW wouldn't translate until February even if the hype was bought in to. So for any January pattern flip, the 1-2 weeks of the MJO in 7-8 seems like a lot of eggs in 1 basket considering the teleconnections don't appear to be a help with mostly neutral +/- levels, but if going to happen that way, the heart of January helps

What could have happened here is happening in Europe.

[MesoscaleBanding]

1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Its more annoying the flaming torch is occurring in the heart of winter, I don't want a torch at all, but if its going to why can't it just be in Late Feb/early March where snow doesn't stick around long after it falls anyways. Why does it have to be during the climatological lows, best sun angle, and overall best time of year to track 😭

My God if it weren't for the 4-5 days of Christmas cold/storm, this winter would be starting off rivaling some of the most infamous torchy winters we've had recently. Any SSW wouldn't translate until February even if the hype was bought in to. So for any January pattern flip, the 1-2 weeks of the MJO in 7-8 seems like a lot of eggs in 1 basket considering the teleconnections don't appear to be a help with mostly neutral +/- levels

 

 

I've always wondered how in the world some of those awful 1930s winters (incredibly low snowfall in my area) would have transpired. Kind of easy to see how it came about - I'm guessing there were long torch periods like we're enduring now & then when things were more favorable for snow, the storm track wasn't quite in your favor. I certainly hope the rest of this winter doesn't play out like that. 

[Snowgeek93]

This winter is really lacking around here as well and it's getting old. Still plenty of time for change though so not all hope is lost.

I Just try to take solace in the fact that days are getting longer now and in 8 short weeks it will be March.

[Guest]

I'm getting ready to write my 2022-2023 Winter Obituary and try again next year. It would be better for my sanity!

[SNOWBOB11]

58 minutes ago, Snowgeek93 said:

This winter is really lacking around here as well and it's getting old. Still plenty of time for change though so not all hope is lost.

I Just try to take solace in the fact that days are getting longer now and in 8 short weeks it will be March.

I thought the pattern was setting up great for our area in December but it just never took hold. I remember last year the first half of winter was also lacking in snow then we had the blizzard with close to 2’ of snow and the second half was solid. Maybe we get a repeat or maybe we just stay warm. We will see.

[WeatherJim]

4 hours ago, JDClapper said:

100%. Never realized how incredibly difficult it is to get a few inches of snow snowstorm, in the winter. Not hard to get rain tho. Lol

Yeah and having no clue about how things worked there was always that hope for a snow day or something. Now you can glance at the models and have a good sense that nothing big will happen for the next few weeks. 

[Grace]

2 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Its more annoying the flaming torch is occurring in the heart of winter, I don't want a torch at all, but if its going to why can't it just be in Late Feb/early March where snow doesn't stick around long after it falls anyways. Why does it have to be during the climatological lows, best sun angle, and overall best time of year to track 😭

My God if it weren't for the 4-5 days of Christmas cold/storm, this winter would be starting off rivaling some of the most infamous torchy winters we've had recently. Any SSW wouldn't translate until February even if the hype was bought in to. So for any January pattern flip, the 1-2 weeks of the MJO in 7-8 seems like a lot of eggs in 1 basket considering the teleconnections don't appear to be a help with mostly neutral +/- levels, but if going to happen that way, the heart of January helps

 

 

 

I keep pointing out that while we have no SSW, the Aleutian strat high with the accompanying warming will have a troposphere response at some point on the global circulation potentially allowing for more high latitude blocking.

So while no SSW what I mentioned could make things interesting. Somin Lee points this out after stating there's no SSW on the horizon:

It seems like people are so busy saying we're not having a SSW they're missing the significance of the the Aleutian high & warming. I honestly don't know if we want a full-blown SSW because there's no guarantees in how it shakes out. 

Edited January 3, 2023 by Grace

[RobB]

I should just wait to see blues on the field before posting anymore 🙂

 

1/3 12Z NAEFS:

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, RobB said:

I should just wait to see blues on the field before posting anymore 🙂

 

1/3 12Z NAEFS:

I'm not sure I've ever seen one of these maps with blue on it.  Do you only post them during torches or are they just always red?

[RobB]

18 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

I'm not sure I've ever seen one of these maps with blue on it.  Do you only post them during torches or are they just always red?

Oh, I've seen blue plenty of times in previous years.  I used to post much more often back a few years.  It just so happens that this year's posts of the NAEFS happen to be on the warm side.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

1 hour ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

I'm not sure I've ever seen one of these maps with blue on it.  Do you only post them during torches or are they just always red?

they were covered leading up to the Dec cold outbreak, but by then we were all scattered amongst our regional threads

 

here is proof they do exist LOL

 

Edited January 3, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[MaineJay]

3 hours ago, Grace said:

 

I keep pointing out that while we have no SSW, the Aleutian strat high with the accompanying warming will have a troposphere response at some point on the global circulation potentially allowing for more high latitude blocking.

So while no SSW what I mentioned could make things interesting. Somin Lee points this out after stating there's no SSW on the horizon:

It seems like people are so busy saying we're not having a SSW they're missing the significance of the the Aleutian high & warming. I honestly don't know if we want a full-blown SSW because there's no guarantees in how it shakes out. 

I think they just want the term used properly.  It feels like there's a contingent that wants to call every warming a SSW, and think they are necessary to get cold.  

   As you mention, there's different modes of PV disruption, and not all SSWs will deliver cold to the CONUS, and aren't necessary.   I think it's a valuable learning exercise about using the terms accurately, as well as not needing a reversal of stratospheric winds to have wintry weather.  

    I believe 2014-15 was a strong +AO? It was the coldest February on record for Portland, ME.  

Hopefully a storm or two spins up to feed some snow addiction, there's still plenty of time, just gotta take the weather as it comes I guess.  I know this hobby feels much more rewarding when it snows, but can't force it.   Things can turn around. It was looking like record warmth here tomorrow just a couple days ago, now, I might see some freezing precip in the evening.

[Grace]

I mentioned CFS has shown some trends reflecting more winter. The LR GEFS does as well starting around JAN 22-23. Shows signals of true Arctic air possibly involved. 

 

We can hope!

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, Grace said:

I mentioned CFS has shown some trends reflecting more winter. The LR GEFS does as well starting around JAN 22-23. Shows signals of true Arctic air possibly involved. 

 

We can hope!

Nice to have something on the horizon to potentially look forward to! It's just a shame the heart of winter is wasting away in the meantime, and there's a strong threat of things ending abruptly and prematurely in early February. 

[telejunkie]

5 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Nice to have something on the horizon to potentially look forward to! It's just a shame the heart of winter is wasting away in the meantime, and there's a strong threat of things ending abruptly and prematurely in early February. 

If you're talking about the MJO eventually circling towards unfavorable phases, it's strongly associated with what the PNA structure is like across North America. A bad phase can be masked by a positive PNA cycle and vice versa. This paper used different guides to obtain their PNA numbers (they dubbed the MVP) compared to how CPC gets their numbers, but if you read into it, it shows the strong correlation between the MVP, the MJO, and its influence on our weather. Just wish we could get the MVP numbers in real time (same could be said for EPO though, which seemingly us amateurs can no longer get): https://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/37CDPW/37cdpw-cschreck.pdf

[beaver56]

I am exhausted by the extremes. It is either a drought, or flood,  or 30 below,  or 30 above average, etc. Can't we ever just have what our normals used to be? I get having an outline here and there, but we never have just I guess "normal."

[Grace]

4 minutes ago, beaver56 said:

I am exhausted by the extremes. It is either a drought, or flood,  or 30 below,  or 30 above average, etc. Can't we ever just have what our normals used to be? I get having an outline here and there, but we never have just I guess "normal."

 

We never have in my lifetime. It's simply perception. Averages are made by extremes. Last month finished below normal for most but it was a month of warmth with a smaller really cold period. 

Edited January 3, 2023 by Grace

[Grace]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

I mentioned CFS has shown some trends reflecting more winter. The LR GEFS does as well starting around JAN 22-23. Shows signals of true Arctic air possibly involved. 

 

We can hope!

 

This is supported by EAR forecast...if this East Asia modeling verifies: