Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[SNOWBOB11]

23 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

It makes perfect sense. No matter what, warmth reigns. We might get short bursts of winter weather, but warmth will always bounce back quickly and take hold for long periods of time.

Recently as in the last several winters yes it seems warmth wins out in general but to say no matter what is extreme. This winter might not be turning out like what it looked like it could but it’s still early. Lots of time for pattern changes.

[Wally Ho]

So the Coz this morning states, and I quote, “Massive sudden stratospheric warming occurring.”  Can one of you knowledgeable folks confirm this, or is just the wish of a deranged cold-loving boob?

[MesoscaleBanding]

Link to Cosgrove's latest post: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7015501645484613632

[NKYSnowLover]

34 minutes ago, Wally Ho said:

So the Coz this morning states, and I quote, “Massive sudden stratospheric warming occurring.”  Can one of you knowledgeable folks confirm this, or is just the wish of a deranged cold-loving boob?

 

6 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Link to Cosgrove's latest post: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7015501645484613632

I'd argue what Cosgrove puts out there is borderline irresponsible from a supposedly professional met.

If you look at the top, you'll see it's the 372 hr frame of a single GFS run (12z). Posting that as the basis for something coming is about as good as shaking an 8 ball (something I think all of us on this forum already know)

Now, onward to his outcomes. He states that this will be followed by quote "a widespread arctic intrusion and a major storm along the gulf and east coasts".

1. Unless the troposphere is linked with the stratosphere at the time this is happening, it doesn't guarantee an immediate Arctic intrusion. And even if they are linked, it doesn't guarantee it, just increases the chances.

2. What happens at 10mb doesn't dictate what is happening at the surface. There are way too many other variables in play to say that a storm will be on the gulf and/or east coasts based on a single 10mb image. If that were the case, all of us in this forum would have received A LOT more snow than we have in years past.

This is a great example of clickbait. It's disappointing to see from someone who should be a professional and it further proliferates the larger problem of gross misrepresentation / misinterpretation of weather data in the digital age.

[Grace]

1 hour ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

It makes perfect sense. No matter what, warmth reigns. We might get short bursts of winter weather, but warmth will always bounce back quickly and take hold for long periods of time.

 

I wasn't referring to the Temps but the pattern. It's literally a super El Nino type pattern.

As far as Temps it's not going to be constant blowtorch. 

 

FYI, for the entire year of 2022 my area was below normal. There's nothing alarming about this map, but quiet remarkable considering many areas were in drought.

 

 

 

If there's any adjustments to that map I can promise you they'll only be on the warm side. The warmer adjustments are pretty annoying & agendanized. 

Edited January 2, 2023 by Grace

[MesoscaleBanding]

GEFS & Canadian Ensemble both have a mid month storm signal across the OV & into the NE - Doesn't look to be much available cold air, but considering the time of year, should be able to tap enough cold air to generate a swath of snow somewhere. 

 

[MesoscaleBanding]

EPS signaling a storm during the Jan 12-14 time frame as well:

 

[Grace]

30 minutes ago, NKYSnowLover said:

 

I'd argue what Cosgrove puts out there is borderline irresponsible from a supposedly professional met.

If you look at the top, you'll see it's the 372 hr frame of a single GFS run (12z). Posting that as the basis for something coming is about as good as shaking an 8 ball (something I think all of us on this forum already know)

Now, onward to his outcomes. He states that this will be followed by quote "a widespread arctic intrusion and a major storm along the gulf and east coasts".

1. Unless the troposphere is linked with the stratosphere at the time this is happening, it doesn't guarantee an immediate Arctic intrusion. And even if they are linked, it doesn't guarantee it, just increases the chances.

2. What happens at 10mb doesn't dictate what is happening at the surface. There are way too many other variables in play to say that a storm will be on the gulf and/or east coasts based on a single 10mb image. If that were the case, all of us in this forum would have received A LOT more snow than we have in years past.

This is a great example of clickbait. It's disappointing to see from someone who should be a professional and it further proliferates the larger problem of gross misrepresentation / misinterpretation of weather data in the digital age.

 

 

To be fair...a lot of the PhD guys gave Mets a hard time in NOV for pointing out the weak Strat PV & split & basically making fun of them for saying cold was coming. The arrogant PhD guys look stupid after the massive Arctic push.

I'm not defending Larry but I'll say the same people that want to post maps like this & say it means winter is over & we can't get blocking because of strong PV:

 

Those folks should not get bent out of shape when someone posts these images & say blocking & cold risks increase with this:

 

I think Larry seeing that & the fact that virtually all models forecast MJO into phases 8, 1....leads Larry to thinking something is cooking. I don't think it's clickbait unless he is guaranteeing. 

I'll also add his gulf & east coast winter storm comments do have some support from ensemble mean h5 & BSR. 

But I would like to see posters go after the "professionals" who do the opposite because snow weenies get on their nerves. There are professionals that actually troll. 

Edited January 2, 2023 by Grace

[MesoscaleBanding]

Getting sick of looking at map images for the current, crappy pattern😂...so...tossing a hail mary pass for the Jan. 12-14 time frame storm signal: 

https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/256-january-12-14-2023-plainsmwglov-winter-storm-speculation/

[Grace]

1 hour ago, Wally Ho said:

So the Coz this morning states, and I quote, “Massive sudden stratospheric warming occurring.”  Can one of you knowledgeable folks confirm this, or is just the wish of a deranged cold-loving boob?

 

There's warming but there's no SSW. But there is warming, that with the Aleutian strat high will weaken PV some & increase chances of blocking. 

I don't know if I would've used the phrase "massive sudden stratospheric warming occurring". First it's not presently occurring, it starts in 10 days. Second, the phrase while technically correct leads people to falsely think it means SSW...this is not a fullblown SSW. 

Edited January 2, 2023 by Grace

[Grace]

Right now, modeling in East Asia suggests we don't really get a large cold outbreak & wintry pattern until around the JAN 21-23 period. Now that's if modeled correctly. 

The EAR is just another forecasting tool. It did well in DEC for the most part. It did have some misses. 

[MesoscaleBanding]

FWIW...

 

Edited January 2, 2023 by MesoscaleBanding

[Guest]

29 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

FWIW...

 

I think we all know which one is wrong

[TheBlizzardOf1978]

Well, you know what you can do with this weather pattern? It's winter!

 

 

 

 

[MesoscaleBanding]

From a solid Ohio met...

 

[SNOWBOB11]

18z GFS ugly basically right until hr 384. Might be the model overdoing warmth or it might be the pattern we’re in.

[NKYSnowLover]

7 hours ago, Grace said:

 

To be fair...a lot of the PhD guys gave Mets a hard time in NOV for pointing out the weak Strat PV & split & basically making fun of them for saying cold was coming. The arrogant PhD guys look stupid after the massive Arctic push.

I'm not defending Larry but I'll say the same people that want to post maps like this & say it means winter is over & we can't get blocking because of strong PV:

 

Those folks should not get bent out of shape when someone posts these images & say blocking & cold risks increase with this:

 

I think Larry seeing that & the fact that virtually all models forecast MJO into phases 8, 1....leads Larry to thinking something is cooking. I don't think it's clickbait unless he is guaranteeing. 

I'll also add his gulf & east coast winter storm comments do have some support from ensemble mean h5 & BSR. 

But I would like to see posters go after the "professionals" who do the opposite because snow weenies get on their nerves. There are professionals that actually troll. 

I totally agree that it is absurd on both sides of the coin. I believe it should be equally called out and I also think that people who have large followings should be careful and clear in what they post as well. You also cant pick and choose which looks of a model are solid and not. Case in point, here are the accompanying images of 2m temps for the same hours of the same GFS run referenced above for the 10mb views:

  

My point is that posting a single image from a single run, especially beyond the 168 hour range, doesnt tell the entire story - here or for any situation in that matter. Nor can one say the 10mb interpretation is correct while at the same time saying the 2m interpretation is not. The different data cuts (data cuts = 10mb temp, 500mb vorts, 2m temps, etc.) are all interdependent on one another for a given model and given model run.  

Also, language really matters in the highly visible public eye (I know this is a "duh", but it always seems to be assessed in retrospect vs. being proactive). Sadly, people wont read "likely", "potentially", "possibly", etc. and they will skip to "major storm", "polar vortex", "major hurricane", "tornado outbreak", etc. The focus on the latter leads to a cascading effect of mass misinformation that plays itself out in arenas like social media (sadly, even mainstream media now) for the 5-10 days before clarity really comes.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

From a solid Ohio met...

 

So basically the MJO will kill the entire winter

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

So basically the MJO will kill the entire winter

The MJO will make or break this winter. 

[Grace]

3 hours ago, NKYSnowLover said:

I totally agree that it is absurd on both sides of the coin. I believe it should be equally called out and I also think that people who have large followings should be careful and clear in what they post as well. You also cant pick and choose which looks of a model are solid and not. Case in point, here are the accompanying images of 2m temps for the same hours of the same GFS run referenced above for the 10mb views:

  

My point is that posting a single image from a single run, especially beyond the 168 hour range, doesnt tell the entire story - here or for any situation in that matter. Nor can one say the 10mb interpretation is correct while at the same time saying the 2m interpretation is not. The different data cuts (data cuts = 10mb temp, 500mb vorts, 2m temps, etc.) are all interdependent on one another for a given model and given model run.  

Also, language really matters in the highly visible public eye (I know this is a "duh", but it always seems to be assessed in retrospect vs. being proactive). Sadly, people wont read "likely", "potentially", "possibly", etc. and they will skip to "major storm", "polar vortex", "major hurricane", "tornado outbreak", etc. The focus on the latter leads to a cascading effect of mass misinformation that plays itself out in arenas like social media (sadly, even mainstream media now) for the 5-10 days before clarity really comes.

 

The temps would not change immediately because the strat & trop are not coupled. I think the take away is that a weakened strat PV sets the table for potential HL blocking if other factors cooperate. With MJO going through 8,1 you'd think there's a good possibility that could take place. Don't forget MJO can have a lag. So, I don't think Larry was saying that image was showing an Arctic outbreak at that moment. So thec2m temps at the temp are irrelevant.

[Grace]

2 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

So basically the MJO will kill the entire winter

 

If it continued to progress. 

But it's ironic folks comment on 3,4 being the death of winter but say nothing about 8,1 bringing winter. 🤔

Edited January 3, 2023 by Grace

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

If it continued to progress. 

But it's ironic folks comment on 3,4 being the death of winter but say nothing about 8,1 bringing winter. 

Because 8,1 doesn't bring winter unless other factors cooperate as well. 3,4 kill winter even if other factors are in cold phases.

[WeatherJim]

I miss being a kid and having no understanding about weather beyond the 5 day forecast. The innocence and ignorance was nice. 

[Grace]

55 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Because 8,1 doesn't bring winter unless other factors cooperate as well. 3,4 kill winter even if other factors are in cold phases.

 

That's not true at all. 3, 4 does not kill winter unless other factors cooperate as well. Other forcings can mute the any MJO signal, especially if it's weak in amplitude. 

My point was whoever the dude was he could as well say 8,1 is going to bring cold just as much as 3,4 ends winter. That's fact

[JDClapper]

7 hours ago, WeatherJim said:

I miss being a kid and having no understanding about weather beyond the 5 day forecast. The innocence and ignorance was nice. 

100%. Never realized how incredibly difficult it is to get a few inches of snow snowstorm, in the winter. Not hard to get rain tho. Lol