Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[RobB]

12/29 0Z NAEFS:

[RobB]

 

[StLweatherjunkie]

10 hours ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

Have to say this seems correct. Nothing really stands out that any cold is coming anytime soon. Obviously things can change quick with LR forecasting but right now it’s not looking wintery for the majority of this forum for the next while. Some more northern areas can still get snow with average or warmer than average temperatures but it’s looking like cutter town for the next while.

Pretty decent low placement (for me) on the latest EPS, we'll see though ...

[NKYSnowLover]

12 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

Not so sure about that, there's barely any signal for below normal temperatures on the entire continent and near normal usually means slightly above normal.

Getting back to near normal is still a huge improvement over what is coming the next 7-10 days. 🙂

Does that come with any widespread indications of below normal? No. Does it come with relatively good indications that +15-25° vs average will be likely over? Yes.

[StormfanaticInd]

The waters in the northeast Pacific seem to really be warming. Could help with the epo

[StLweatherjunkie]

22 hours ago, RobB said:

 

So far this fall/early winter had brief but rather intense periods of wintry weather. They occurred Sep 22-28, Oct 15-20, Nov 12-20, and Dec 20-26 or roughly 4th week, 3rd week, 3rd week, 4th week. Assuming that continues, I'm on-board with either the 3rd or 4th week of the month being the best bet for widespread winter weather east of the Rockies. 

I was recently thinking about the Lezak cycle theory, because the Dec 23/24 blizzard seems pretty similar to a storm we had October 17/18 that probably would have been a blizzard if it were 5°F colder. That implies it took 2+ months for the storm to circle the hemisphere. Maybe it will make it around faster now that winter is theoretically setting in a bit more, but I'm wondering what will happen in late-ish February when the system might be coming through again. 

Also, it will be interesting to see how this surge in SOI affects the La Nina. The sub-surface surge of warmth is eroding, but it obliterated cool sub-surface anomalies along the way. Seems like it could fend off warmth until February like most models continue to show.  

Edited December 30, 2022 by StLweatherjunkie

[StLweatherjunkie]

26 minutes ago, NKYSnowLover said:

Getting back to near normal is still a huge improvement over what is coming the next 7-10 days. 🙂

Does that come with any widespread indications of below normal? No. Does it come with relatively good indications that +15-25° vs average will be likely over? Yes.

Jan 6/7 could be closer to average, but the remainder of the next 2+ weeks looks pretty toasty relative to seasonal normals:

[StLweatherjunkie]

17 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

The waters in the northeast Pacific seem to really be warming. Could help with the epo

Perhaps so but I think this would be several months in the making. At this point who would be surprised by March being the most persistently cold month of the 'winter'?

[MesoscaleBanding]

Hope-inducing run from the 12z GFS. Not too bad at all once it got past next Tues./Wed.'s mega torch.

Edited December 29, 2022 by MesoscaleBanding

[SNOWBOB11]

4 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Hope-inducing run from the 12z GFS. Not too bad at all once it got past next Tues./Wed.'s mega torch.

The CMC didn’t look terrible either for whatever that’s worth.

[StormfanaticInd]

Looks like something is brewing next week

[StormfanaticInd]

2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Looks like something is brewing next week

One can hope. 😁

[Grace]

Everyone needs to read this thread. Refers to some things not often talked about. It is a golden thread. It's also very hopeful.

 

[StormfanaticInd]

🙄

 

[Wayuphere]

On 12/28/2022 at 3:03 PM, MaineJay said:

I'm fine with this during the coldest climo period, we can even squeak out snow in above normal temps up here.  I know it's a bit of the doldrums for many, but reduced heating costs are a bit of a consolation prize.

 Looking at the PDO, I guess a trof west and ridge east shouldn't be completely surprising. Similar in magnitude to last winter, also unfortunate (for cold lovers) similarities to 2011-12, not making a statement about SSTs globally, just the PDO magnitude.

In Maine, when only the heat pumps are needed in January and the wood stove and furnace aren’t needed but it can still snow? 
All good!!!

[SNOWBOB11]

Hmmm

[Pghsnow]

28 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

Hmmm

Only have to hold that look for 7 more days. At least something to track instead of tracking a unicorn SSW and pattern flip. 

[Grace]

18z GFS was cold toward the end. That would be nice if verifies 

 

Oh yea...forgot to post it has this right after images above:

Edited December 29, 2022 by Grace

[Penn State]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

Oh yea...forgot to post it has this right after images above:

I know it’s hour 384.. but this is lead in to the timeframe I’m interested in. 1/16-1/20

[SNOWBOB11]

1 hour ago, Pghsnow said:

Only have to hold that look for 7 more days. At least something to track instead of tracking a unicorn SSW and pattern flip. 

I’ve learned over time planning for a possible SSW event in the future can be fools gold. It constantly seems to get pushed off or doesn’t materialize all together. It’s better to wait until it actually happens to prepare for the possibility of colder temperatures in 3 weeksish.

[StormfanaticInd]

20 minutes ago, Penn State said:

I know it’s hour 384.. but this is lead in to the timeframe I’m interested in. 1/16-1/20

Me to😁

[StormfanaticInd]

This warm period may not last long at all

[Grace]

3 hours ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

I’ve learned over time planning for a possible SSW event in the future can be fools gold. It constantly seems to get pushed off or doesn’t materialize all together. It’s better to wait until it actually happens to prepare for the possibility of colder temperatures in 3 weeksish.

 

But we don't have to have a SSW. No guarantees if we did have one. But this right here does all we need. The stratospheric Pacific system significantly weakens the SPV. 

12z GFS

It peels it like an onion. That's probably better than a SSW for N. America.

 

 

[so_whats_happening]

On 12/20/2022 at 10:58 AM, so_whats_happening said:

Quick update on the progress so far

Quite the drop from that cold blast. Shows that most of the month was rather average for most places and the warm spell in the beginning of the month was not quite as strong as the cold was over the 5-6 days it was around. Still have a couple days left so some of these will warm but this should overall show how the month ended up.

[so_whats_happening]

3 hours ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

I’ve learned over time planning for a possible SSW event in the future can be fools gold. It constantly seems to get pushed off or doesn’t materialize all together. It’s better to wait until it actually happens to prepare for the possibility of colder temperatures in 3 weeksish.

Yea wait until it is within 240hrs outside of that is rather random. At 240 you can start to hone in on ideas but you experience less variation overall in the stratosphere than you do at 500mb. SSW just extends the pattern that sets up but it still has breaks that come within the pattern it also does not guarantee us anything depending on how it sets up. If we have a top down split it happens to affect us rather quickly and then 3 weeks and 6 weeks (if I remember these timeframes correctly) after the event occurs are the next shots of the pattern reload. That is why many wish for this to happen early so we can have it through winter but of recent years it has been happening late January early February and extends our winter into spring.

A wave 1 disruption like Grace posted can be enough to push the pattern a certain way but usually it means cold gets shoved over to Europe while we may end up marginal but marginal this time of year is quite alright since we are in the coldest portion of climo.

15 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

But we don't have to have a SSW. No guarantees if we did have one. But this right here does all we need. The stratospheric Pacific system significantly weakens the SPV. 

12z GFS

It peels it like an onion. That's probably better than a SSW for N. America.

 

 

Yea I am so used to the tail being into the PAC NW so maybe we can get some cold if things connect through the atmosphere. Mid month cold? Lets see.