Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Hassaywx1223]

My natural gas needs a break after this week I’ll take the 2 weeks of warmer weather if we go into full winter mid January on

[Iceresistance]

It looks like that this torch may not last long, the models are hinting the possibility of a Sigma 6 SSW sometime in early or mid January. 

[Pghsnow]

Something to watch on the EURO around the 4th and 5th. 

[StormfanaticInd]

The subtropical jet is very active. It wouldn't take very much for one of these to cut under🕵‍♂️

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Starting to see some light beyond day 10, it's just a little dim still 

[MesoscaleBanding]

GEFS is ugly. Might be able to squeeze out a very narrow, marginal event in the eastern U.S., but doesn't look too promising at all for the next 12+ days. 

[NWOhioChaser]

1 hour ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

GEFS is ugly. Might be able to squeeze out a very narrow, marginal event in the eastern U.S., but doesn't look too promising at all for the next 12+ days. 

You’re telling me. Thereeee’s the reds we’ve been so accustomed to.

[MesoscaleBanding]

Next 2 weeks are pretty much a lost cause, so I was hoping for some pattern change optimism from CPC - ugh, not much apparently - although, this suggests a western ridge, which is usually good news for the eastern half of the U.S. We'll see.

 

Edited December 27, 2022 by MesoscaleBanding

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Next 2 weeks are pretty much a lost cause, so I was hoping for some pattern change optimism from CPC - ugh, not much apparently - although, this suggests a western ridge, which is usually good news for the eastern half of the U.S. We'll see.

 

So we can throw January out before it even starts lol

[MesoscaleBanding]

7 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

So we can throw January out before it even starts lol

Nah...long range modeling tends to be wildly inaccurate dart throws (See what the long range ensembles were showing for New Year's weekend time frame back in mid-Dec.). Though, I think it's pretty safe to toss the first week of Jan. if you're in the eastern U.S. & wanting any kind of decent winter weather. 

Edited December 27, 2022 by MesoscaleBanding

[Penn State]

Though the next few weeks will provide a mid-winter lull.. I believe there’s a pathway for winter’s return during the 2nd week of January. Winter’s return may also be accompanied by a larger event around the 16th (Which is probably way too specific for 3 weeks in advance.. lol). Regardless, this evaluation is based on the forecasted teleconnections. AO and NAO look to be trending negative as we approach mid-January. PNA looks to be trending positive. ENSO SSTs are warming.. that’s a good transition, which I think might help to provide ridging in the West. There’s a strong signal for mid-January according to the BSR. As depicted.. (which that’s not how it works.. but a signal nevertheless).. that’s a beast for the 16th. The MJO is forecasted to be rounding into phases 7 and 8 at the beginning of January, which points to mid-January as having potential. But wait.. there’s more! There’s even the possibility of a SSWE (although.. I would argue it’s less likely, but still a snowball’s chance.. lol). So.. we’ll see what happens. Certainly not the worst hand being dealt for next month. 

BSR (1/14-1/16)

MJO 

SSTs

SSWE Potential 

PNA

NAO

AO

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, Penn State said:

Though the next few weeks will provide a mid-winter lull.. I believe there’s a pathway for winter’s return during the 2nd week of January. Winter’s return may also be accompanied by a larger event around the 16th (Which is probably way too specific for 3 weeks in advance.. lol). Regardless, this evaluation is based on the forecasted teleconnections. AO and NAO look to be trending negative as we approach mid-January. PNA looks to be trending positive. ENSO SSTs are warming.. that’s a good transition, which I think might help to provide ridging in the West. There’s a strong signal for mid-January according to the BSR. As depicted.. (which that’s not how it works.. but a signal nevertheless).. that’s a beast for the 16th. The MJO is forecasted to be rounding into phases 7 and 8 at the beginning of January, which points to mid-January as having potential. But wait.. there’s more! There’s even the possibility of a SSWE (although.. I would argue it’s less likely, but still a snowball’s chance.. lol). So.. we’ll see what happens. Certainly not the worst hand being dealt for next month. 

BSR (1/14-1/16)

MJO 

SSTs

SSWE Potential 

PNA

NAO

AO

Well put discussion! Im unfortunately still not on the SSW train yet. Maybe a minor wave 1 displacement event coming up. Would have liked to see the Urals high hold on longer but it is what it is. The warming along Peru/Chile coastal region is a sure sign the La Nina is dieing. Watch this region to see how intense the warming gets over the next couple months. If we can have a rather sudden collapse of La Nina get ready for a cooler spring. Nice little reprieve for about a week not really a fan of highs in the teens and lows near 0. 

Anyway really really nice to see the west coast and intermountain areas cashing in on another bout of mountain snows and valley rains. Hope we can get another one or two of these episodes before we switch things up. Just hopefully not all at once out there.

[SOMOSnow]

4 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

So we can throw January out before it even starts lol

We can write off the first week. That's it

[RobB]

 

[RobB]

12/28 0Z NAEFS:

[so_whats_happening]

It looks like Sunday will be the warmest coming up here this week may push mid 50's if the rain doesn't overshadow it. The next time period looks like 4-6th where we may push low 60's but this weekend coming up was supposed to be low 60's and we are already taming that down. Ill take the few warm days and run. LR starting to show signs of an Aleutian low setting up which drives a western ridge have to see as we move toward the end of the first week of January. May also have to watch for a sneaky system just after the 6th for the east.

[NKYSnowLover]

2 hours ago, RobB said:

12/28 0Z NAEFS:

Huge improvement over the last 2 days. Suggests we should be seeing an end to the coming warmth around the 9-11th timeframe.

Edited December 28, 2022 by NKYSnowLover

[RobB]

12/28 12Z NAEFS:

 

 

[Pghsnow]

 

[MaineJay]

1 hour ago, RobB said:

12/28 12Z NAEFS:

 

 

I'm fine with this during the coldest climo period, we can even squeak out snow in above normal temps up here.  I know it's a bit of the doldrums for many, but reduced heating costs are a bit of a consolation prize.

 Looking at the PDO, I guess a trof west and ridge east shouldn't be completely surprising. Similar in magnitude to last winter, also unfortunate (for cold lovers) similarities to 2011-12, not making a statement about SSTs globally, just the PDO magnitude.

[RobB]

9 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

I'm fine with this during the coldest climo period, we can even squeak out snow in above normal temps up here.  I know it's a bit of the doldrums for many, but reduced heating costs are a bit of a consolation prize.

 Looking at the PDO, I guess a trof west and ridge east shouldn't be completely surprising. Similar in magnitude to last winter, also unfortunate (for cold lovers) similarities to 2011-12, not making a statement about SSTs globally, just the PDO magnitude.

Thanks for the post.  Yeah, this warmup is easier on the heating bill.  I'm old enough that I can both enjoy the cold and snows yet appreciate the warm ups too.

[Cdfarabaugh]

Anybody know who this fellow in BookFace is?  Guy is very Bastardi-like with his cold bias and always a SSW right around the corner.  

[StLweatherjunkie]

8 hours ago, NKYSnowLover said:

Huge improvement over the last 2 days. Suggests we should be seeing an end to the coming warmth around the 9-11th timeframe.

Not so sure about that, there's barely any signal for below normal temperatures on the entire continent and near normal usually means slightly above normal.

[SNOWBOB11]

1 hour ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

Not so sure about that, there's barely any signal for below normal temperatures on the entire continent and near normal usually means slightly above normal.

Have to say this seems correct. Nothing really stands out that any cold is coming anytime soon. Obviously things can change quick with LR forecasting but right now it’s not looking wintery for the majority of this forum for the next while. Some more northern areas can still get snow with average or warmer than average temperatures but it’s looking like cutter town for the next while.

[so_whats_happening]

If anyone is interested I am apart of a year long forecasting challenge over at amwx. We forecast month to month 9 different locations across the country about what the average temp will look like for the month. Ill place a link here but want to say this is mainly for fun it is a nice little competition but again just for fun to test your skills at long range forecasting for temps. If interested please feel free to join no skill level necessary to be involved. In the winter time we do snowfall forecasts on the season for 9 cities again but not the same as the temp forecast as you will see why.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58627-january-2023-temperature-forecast-contest/