Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[NWOhioChaser]

This is *bleeping* nuts. Near 0 tomorrow, and summer night weather by New Years

[Guest]

34 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

This is *bleeping* nuts. Near 0 tomorrow, and summer night weather by New Years

Absolute insanity. And you know the actual highs are going to be warmer than that as winter heatwaves always over perform. 

[so_whats_happening]

I really feel like yall build some really crazy weather ideas in your heads. I dont know why many of you expected an epically cold winter in a 3rd year la nina, especially along the east coast. Given how these warm waters have been sitting for months just to our east that was a dead giveaway to a further west storm track. Not to say we cant get a storm or two in between. -pna has ruled the western pattern for quite some time. We had a go of a -epo for a bit there but in conjunction with a -pna that is never good and when we make a rise to neutral or positive with the pna we get the cold to unleash but lack staying power because the weakened -nao moved from its anchor spot.

Now we get to hear weeks on end of just how warm it is... come on. You should never expect things to continually be the same year after year especially in a warmer base state globally. 

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I really feel like yall build some really crazy weather ideas in your heads. I dont know why many of you expected an epically cold winter in a 3rd year la nina, especially along the east coast. Given how these warm waters have been sitting for months just to our east that was a dead giveaway to a further west storm track. Not to say we cant get a storm or two in between. -pna has ruled the western pattern for quite some time. We had a go of a -epo for a bit there but in conjunction with a -pna that is never good and when we make a rise to neutral or positive with the pna we get the cold to unleash but lack staying power because the weakened -nao moved from its anchor spot.

Now we get to hear weeks on end of just how warm it is... come on. You should never expect things to continually be the same year after year especially in a warmer base state globally. 

I don't think anyone is expecting epic cold, and I'd say most don't even want it (myself excluded). But it doesn't seem like much to hope for at least seasonal temperatures. The 1st half of January will see records shatter across the Eastern half of the country. 

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

I don't think anyone is expecting epic cold, and I'd say most don't even want it (myself excluded). But it doesn't seem like much to hope for at least seasonal temperatures. The 1st half of January will see records shatter across the Eastern half of the country. 

You said this exact same thing in early December and look at where we are right now with the month overall in the east and especially areas of the OHV. To much of your surprise you really may end up near average or even slightly below for the month.

[so_whats_happening]

You have to remember anything past hr 240 is pure speculation from 120-240 is the area to start and hone in on ideas and within 120hrs you should a reasonably good outlook over the next 5 days. That is how things should be approached in general. So all these long range calls going into January, again yes this was expected as the pattern relaxes a little -NAO weakens but doesn't actually seem to fully go away either which is an important thing to consider for down the road. The Pacific is literally running the pattern right now and usually does. You wanna see change you need that to cooperate. Otherwise expect more of the same cold shot, then a brief warm up, then a cold shot, then a brief warm up.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

You said this exact same thing in early December and look at where we are right now with the month overall in the east and especially areas of the OHV. To much of your surprise you really may end up near average or even slightly below for the month.

As of today I'm +3.5 for the month. I might get down to about normal after the next 4 days of actual winter weather, but then the heat next week will bring me back to about 3 above average again. 

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

As of today I'm +3.5 for the month. I might get down to about normal after the next 4 days of actual winter weather, but then the heat next week will bring me back to about 3 above average again. 

Unfortunately I do not know where you are, I wanna say upper midwest but not sure.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Unfortunately I do not know where you are, I wanna say upper midwest but not sure.

Oh sorry I thought I had that in my profile but I see I don't...I'm just west of Milwaukee, WI. 

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Oh sorry I thought I had that in my profile but I see I don't...I'm just west of Milwaukee, WI. 

Gotcha so Im just going to use Milwaukee as an example because again not entirely sure of exacts and that is fine. Im sure there is enough of a micro climate change from Milwaukee to your local but incredibly different. So looking at the latest daily climo for the town it shows they are 2.5 above average on the month. Not terrible but in many instances not the greatest. This is not a torch in any respect.

Looking at the NWS forecast coming up here over the next 5 days. Temps should average about 15-20 degrees below average each of those days with highs in the single digits to low teens with a typical high of around 33/34 for this time of year. The lows will be low single digits and slowly warm up as we move forward with a typical low of about 20-21. That is frickin cold even for Wisconsin standards especially this time of year. This should drive your average to near or even slightly below average. By about tuesday into wednesday things reverse and you start to hit average temps. That leaves 3 days and you expect a torch to occur for those 3 days to bring you back up to +3? No model suggests that as we leave December. Here is the Euro as an example and we are pushing the reaches of the model as the 1st hits the 240hr mark. Again this is assuming this is the correct solution almost 10 days out.

[so_whats_happening]

You are literally going to burn yourselves constantly if you take the GFS wholeheartedly.

[1816]

Also, I had no idea @HateWinterWarmth was located in Wisconsin. WISCONSIN. 

You must literally be the only person in the state with complaints about the warmth in the winter. Pretty sure every other Wisconsinite welcome any warm days they can get during winter in a place known for being one of the most brutal winter spots in the continental 48. 

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Gotcha so Im just going to use Milwaukee as an example because again not entirely sure of exacts and that is fine. Im sure there is enough of a micro climate change from Milwaukee to your local but incredibly different. So looking at the latest daily climo for the town it shows they are 2.5 above average on the month. Not terrible but in many instances not the greatest. This is not a torch in any respect.

Looking at the NWS forecast coming up here over the next 5 days. Temps should average about 15-20 degrees below average each of those days with highs in the single digits to low teens with a typical high of around 33/34 for this time of year. The lows will be low single digits and slowly warm up as we move forward with a typical low of about 20-21. That is frickin cold even for Wisconsin standards especially this time of year. This should drive your average to near or even slightly below average. By about tuesday into wednesday things reverse and you start to hit average temps. That leaves 3 days and you expect a torch to occur for those 3 days to bring you back up to +3? No model suggests that as we leave December. Here is the Euro as an example and we are pushing the reaches of the model as the 1st hits the 240hr mark. Again this is assuming this is the correct solution almost 10 days out.

I'm not really believing what the models are kicking out temperature wise at this point but for different reasons than you. In my experience, they almost always undershoot the magnitude of warmth in winter heat waves. As the time draws near, I expect the temperatures to creep upward well into the 40's and approaching 50 around NYE. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, 1816 said:

Also, I had no idea @HateWinterWarmth was located in Wisconsin. WISCONSIN. 

You must literally be the only person in the state with complaints about the warmth in the winter. Pretty sure every other Wisconsinite welcome any warm days they can get during winter in a place known for being one of the most brutal winter spots in the continental 48. 

You are probably right, but I've never understood why so many winter haters choose to live here. I chose to embrace it - I live for ice fishing, snowmobiling, and everything else winter has to offer. If I wanted tepid winters I'd move south. 

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

I'm not really believing what the models are kicking out temperature wise at this point but for different reasons than you. In my experience, they almost always undershoot the magnitude of warmth in winter heat waves. As the time draws near, I expect the temperatures to creep upward well into the 40's and approaching 50 around NYE. 

This is perfectly fine too but you have to realize this is a forecast 9-10 days out and there are many many things that could go wrong on either side. My thing with that statement is you say to not take models for gospel but then do so when one weather event happens to show up. We will revisit this just after Christmas. The one thing that is killing your average right now and this is not just your location this is occurring globally are the nighttime lows. This has been a running theme for easily the last 10-15 years more noticeably than seen before. 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

This is perfectly fine too but you have to realize this is a forecast 9-10 days out and there are many many things that could go wrong on either side. My thing with that statement is you say to not take models for gospel but then do so when one weather event happens to show up. We will revisit this just after Christmas. The one thing that is killing your average right now and this is not just your location this is occurring globally are the nighttime lows. This has been a running theme for easily the last 10-15 years more noticeably than seen before. 

I don't remember a time when models showed warmth in the long run and it didn't end up happening. That's one thing the models are very good at picking up on, it's just the magnitude of it that they struggle with. 

[so_whats_happening]

5 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

it's just the magnitude of it that they struggle with. 

This is probably the one thing I can agree with. This is why everyone says to use models for what they are guidance.

Edited December 22, 2022 by so_whats_happening
remove the rest of the quote bold was not highlighted enough for my statement

[Iceresistance]

Whoever said that the La Nina is dying is eating their own words, I don't think I have ever seen a Daily SOI value this high.

[Psu1313]

After this storm rolls out, there might be a sneaky clipper opportunity mid next week, before the "warmth" moves in. Starting somewhere between January 6th and 13th, I see some cold moving in, even it is average to slightly below average. MJO is showing some signs of waking up, and if we can get a continuation, that timeframe would make sense to make a move into phase 7. We'll see, but after this one, that's the next time frame that I think has some potential

[Iceresistance]

3 hours ago, Psu1313 said:

After this storm rolls out, there might be a sneaky clipper opportunity mid next week, before the "warmth" moves in. Starting somewhere between January 6th and 13th, I see some cold moving in, even it is average to slightly below average. MJO is showing some signs of waking up, and if we can get a continuation, that timeframe would make sense to make a move into phase 7. We'll see, but after this one, that's the next time frame that I think has some potential

I'm thinking that Late January/into February is the main timing for "The Big One".

[StormfanaticInd]

[Guest]

50s as far north as Wisconsin looks more and more likely for several days next week. 4 days of winter, 2 weeks of torch. 

[Ingyball]

I'm good with a little warm up. It's too cold right now. 0z Canadian tries to ruin that lol 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

I'm good with a little warm up. It's too cold right now. 0z Canadian tries to ruin that lol 

A "little" warmup is one thing, but the torchfest that's coming is a little uncalled for. It's going to melt everything (snow and ice) in short order and we'll be starting from square one. 

[Ingyball]

21 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Whoever said that the La Nina is dying is eating their own words, I don't think I have ever seen a Daily SOI value this high.

La Nina is definitely decaying. All regions warmed over the last week and Nino 4 warmed quite a bit. Once Nino 3.4 gets below 0.5 then we'll have to wait about 4 to 8 weeks for the atmospheric response (typically). It would be great if we could get some upwelling and get that warmth to the surface faster.