Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Guest]

Alright experts, someone needs to explain to me how this perfect cold setup is going to disintegrate so quickly after Christmas. Is it the MJO torch phases fighting back? 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

2 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Alright experts, someone needs to explain to me how this perfect cold setup is going to disintegrate so quickly after Christmas. Is it the MJO torch phases fighting back? 

Yeah I'd like to read a write up as well, but looking at teleconnections the deeply negative NAO and AO erode, the EPO goes modestly high positive and the MJO is in unfavorable territory, based on that, other than if the PNA went negative I'm not sure what else could go wrong. The question just becomes is it just temporary early January thaw type action (although the name January thaw loses credibility when your only thawing out from a weeks worth of cold haha)

[Penn State]

So, as it stands.. I don't know if there will be another strong opportunity for a major east coast storm for quite some time. I'm thinking there might be an opportunity during the first or second week of January as the pattern reloads, and teleconnections become more favorable (potentially). However, it's going to be some amount of time before the MJO (potentially) gets back to phases 7 and 8, and theres about a 2-3 week lag from that. That all points to sometime in mid-late January. Am I interpreting this right? I promise, I'm not bittercasting.. that's just how I'm reading the data at the moment. 

[Iceresistance]

10 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Alright experts, someone needs to explain to me how this perfect cold setup is going to disintegrate so quickly after Christmas. Is it the MJO torch phases fighting back? 

The MJO is expected to briefly jump into Phases 4 and 5 for a few days. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45

[MaineJay]

17 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Yeah I'd like to read a write up as well, but looking at teleconnections the deeply negative NAO and AO erode, the EPO goes modestly high positive and the MJO is in unfavorable territory, based on that, other than if the PNA went negative I'm not sure what else could go wrong. The question just becomes is it just temporary early January thaw type action (although the name January thaw loses credibility when your only thawing out from a weeks worth of cold haha)

A Hudson Bay vortex has never been able to dig in. Getting a piece of the PV to establish there is the ""easiest" way to fix everything.   I kinda feel like the big -NAO saw retrograded, and squished it. The big --EPO ridging in Alaska gave us a window of opportunity, but it's seems it was unstable.  

  When talking about teleconnections, sometimes they oscillate throughout a season, sometimes they dig in.  I generally think of weather patterns in 2 week blocks.

  Almost feels like the while pattern has rotated counterclockwise.  

  It's interesting, being this far east, all the airmasses have been lately modified, the warmth has been blunted, as has the cold. The small temperature ranges so far have actually been welcomed by myself.

 The one thing we have had, since the summer I'd say, is prolific qpf events. Lots of meridianol flow, so when storms do happen, they are moisture laden.

  I guess the "silver lining" might be that we are entering the period of lowest climo, so we don't need bitter, just enough cold.

  Getting back to the 2 week blocks. First half of November was crazy warm here, second half cold, first half of December was warm and benign, second half stormy. Going off this, I'm expecting to to see mild and "boring" first half January, second half more exciting.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

It's just crazy to see maps like this after what we waited on all month

[MaineJay]

12 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

It's just crazy to see maps like this after what we waited on all month

Looks like all the troffing in the northern hemisphere is wasted over the oceans, continental ridging everywhere. Usually warm in NOAM means cold Siberia. Can't recall such a distribution.

 

[SNOWBOB11]

At this point it’s going to be difficult to believe models showing any incoming cold for the rest of the season until it actually happens. The teles and MJO looked like they were going to be there but it just never materialized.

[Guest]

All this perfect cold setup for a few days of below normal temperatures, followed by more torching. Chalk up yet another warm December and at this point it looks like a torch January to go along with it. 

[Iceresistance]

16 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

All this perfect cold setup for a few days of below normal temperatures, followed by more torching. Chalk up yet another warm December and at this point it looks like a torch January to go along with it. 

The models are likely throwing out the -AO. The only way that the NHEM torches like this is a significantly positive AO, and that does not appear to be case here logically with a very strong snowpack.

[so_whats_happening]

Yea it definitely has been a roller coaster that is for sure. I personally wish for folks not to get so hung up over model runs 6-10+ days and for them to be correct. They hardly ever verify and in that random chance that a run truly depicts the pattern then kudos to that model on that particular run.

That being said remember the constant takedown of the NAO through much of the beginning and middle of December, the GFS specifically was the main culprit of this but some others were quick to the game too, we are still going into the Christmas timeframe and still dealing with a -NAO signal, definitely not as strong as it was but still prevalent. This was expected to last until about this time in which the pattern essentially resets on itself and we have this 'thaw' pattern arrive. The idea was it breaks down and as we leave December or into the first week of January we would be above average temp wise given we enter our lowest temps of the year that isn't saying much though as we can still get snowy patterns within the warmth the biggest concern of mine is the Pacific just not cooperating in anyway for a meaningful amount of time. Im not seeing, as of now, any record warmth let alone solid 10-15 degrees above average constantly. Remember also these warm waters off much of the east coast and into the Gulf surely aren't helping and most certainly is the culprit into a much further inland track than we are use to. The cold every time it tries to come our way just hits a brick wall and when we do get it we miss the timing of cold remaining and the storm entering by about a day so we get left with marginal air in storms. This was most certainly a concern of mine as we entered the season.

I am genuinely curious overall though if we can manage to hold onto this -NAO pattern even through this 'reset' period and it just gets knocked around a little with this upcoming storm. This would keep the pattern relatively active and slowed in the mid latitudes but of course the one missing component has been the cold timing up right with the storms. In local threads I mentioned for east coast specifically we may need to keep an eye on the period just after Christmas 27th area. This is when the -NAO will be at the weakest point with this storm in about 2 days trying to knock it out of existence. This typically is when we tend to see the best east coast storm chance. Cold blast retreating and simultaneously we knock out the -NAO (again whether this portion happens or not may be answered by this weekend). 

As for other portions of the country, I gotta say I don't think we have seen a midwest/ Central US look like this in quite some time. The west coast is getting a decent run at a good base and may really add on over the next week. I call that win regardless of our season. Yea it is not all out snow across much of the Midwest, OHV and NE/Mid atlantic but we are building a rather solid base across much of the upper midwest. This does tend to push the storm track overtime a little further south just something to keep an eye on. Trust me I know it can be frustrating with the lack of snow. We have received flurries thus far this season matching on par with last season (0.5" in december the 27th and 15" on the year lol) La Ninas can be a B sometimes.

Here is current depth and forecasted positive snow depth change from the GFS out to 84 hours.

[so_whats_happening]

On 12/12/2022 at 7:44 PM, so_whats_happening said:

Lets see how much we can take off this. Surely Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic should reverse, maybe up to about Boston. I really hope the cold is what you guys wanted because im sure we will start hearing about how everything is suppressed so far south.

Quick update on the progress so far

[WeatherJim]

Looks to be a warm rainy start to the new year for the eastern half of the US  if the models are to be believed. 

[Mulaman984]

 

[Iceresistance]

It looks like that the PV is going to stabilize when 2023 comes around, this will allow the Arctic Circle and the North Pole to get really cold and recover from the Cross Polar Flow.

This may also allow our cold source region to recover, reload, and launch again around Late January/February.
(NOTE: My forecast, and it should be treated with a grain of salt)

Edited December 20, 2022 by Iceresistance

[1816]

@HateWinterWarmth

-.4 for now with at least a few really cold days coming up. Like -20 to average. But I'll agree to a draw with you since it wasn't as cold as I thought for as long as I thought. And no snow. 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, 1816 said:

@HateWinterWarmth

-.4 for now with at least a few really cold days coming up. Like -20 to average. But I'll agree to a draw with you since it wasn't as cold as I thought for as long as I thought. And no snow. 

You're doing much better than I am. I'm +3.2, which should obviously come down some in the next few days but then bounce right back up.

 

[Iceresistance]

Looks like we are going to have a New Year's Torch, it's better than having a Christmas Torch though.

Edited December 20, 2022 by Iceresistance

[Wally Ho]

Looks like roasting time, lads.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

2 hours ago, Wally Ho said:

Looks like roasting time, lads.

I dont see it 🧐

[Iceresistance]

It looks like we are definitely going to have a New Years Torch, daily SOI is at +37.88 today. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[Guest]

Absolutely disgusting. All this buildup for 4 days of winter and then back to our regularly scheduled Torchcember.

[Iceresistance]

2 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Absolutely disgusting. All this buildup for 4 days of winter and then back to our regularly scheduled Torchcember.

At least December is almost done