StormfanaticInd Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 16, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 16, 2022 37 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: This pattern looks to continue into January. I would question continuation. We need a reload at some point to have something last for months is fairly rare without some interludes (week or two) where we bring things back to a base state which is still La Nina after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al_Czervik Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: I would question continuation. We need a reload at some point to have something last for months is fairly rare without some interludes (week or two) where we bring things back to a base state which is still La Nina after all. I don't think it is that rare. Look back to 2013-2014, 2014-2015. Basically non stop colder than normal temps for the Great Lakes. Same thing goes for the Western US, hence the megadrought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 (edited) 🧐 dare we say agreement. That's as clustered of a run as your ever going to see 10-12 days out Edited December 16, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 (edited) Not downplaying the cold handful of days we do get, but if simply looking at the mean. It doesn't have that much staying power (5 days). Now let's just hope we at LEAST stay seasonal beyond this Edited December 16, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Not downplaying the cold handful of days we do get, but if simply looking at the mean. It doesn't have that much staying power (5 days). Now let's just hope we at LEAST stay seasonal beyond this Not a warm look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Holy 12z ICON! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 16, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 hours ago, Al_Czervik said: I don't think it is that rare. Look back to 2013-2014, 2014-2015. Basically non stop colder than normal temps for the Great Lakes. Same thing goes for the Western US, hence the megadrought. I don't like to detract too much from the topic at hand. Alright so what would be a rare event? Btw while 2014-15 was cold, it was by no means a stuck pattern like 2013-14 which in itself is a very rare event to occur with the RRR. 2009-10 was also another very rare event to have such a pronounced -NAO for a couple months. Unfortunately the West is a situation where we have things like a drought ( a typical thing in any climate but hits harder in a desert), human-land impact and water cycle disruption, also seems to be more persistent (mentioned by quite a few mets I chat with) expansion/enhancement of the Hadley cell in summer time. It also seems it may be impacting winter patterns at times. These factors all seem to be happening at the same ish time. So we tend to get greater drought time periods lending to the megadrought situation. So we may be in a situation of something like a constructive wave where things come together to amplify the pattern to a different level. Who knows, we know it isn't good yet we don't in many cases make larger changes to fix the issue and kick it down the road. Unfortunately there will be one day that most western areas will not be livable places due to lack of water. Yet millions keep moving there. 🤷♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 When the atmosphere does something this extreme it might be telling us something. This winter could have major potential to be crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: When the atmosphere does something this extreme it might be telling us something. This winter could have major potential to be crazy January/February 2023 could feature "The Big One"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: When the atmosphere does something this extreme it might be telling us something. This winter could have major potential to be crazy At the very least, there's a large scale pattern that favors big storms in the eastern CONUS. It feels like it's been a couple years since we've seen multiple strong systems developing lee of the Rockies in the same month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 (edited) You know what's going to happen. Just like with hurricanes. This Christmas thing is fizzling so everyone is going to just dismiss anything else that pops up. Come January, we are going to be buried with back to back to back big dogs and everyone is going to be standing around with their pants down. Stock up on stuff now people. Edited December 17, 2022 by 1816 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 hour ago, 1816 said: You know what's going to happen. Just like with hurricanes. This Christmas thing is fizzling so everyone is going to just dismiss anything else that pops up. Come January, we are going to be buried with back to back to back big dogs and everyone is going to be standing around with their pants down. Stock up on stuff now people. And then, in February, I will get the BIG ONE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 0z Canadian Ensemble looking good in LR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Grace said: 0z Canadian Ensemble looking good in LR You beat me to it. We might get a 2-3 "break then back to the freezer potentially Edited December 18, 2022 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cdfarabaugh Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Super quiet in here. While we all get our super cold christmas it looks to quickly go the other way heading towards new years 😞 .......if the Goofus is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 ....not a great intermediate outlook from the ensmebles ex Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 (edited) Edited December 18, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 16 hours ago, 1816 said: You know what's going to happen. Just like with hurricanes. This Christmas thing is fizzling so everyone is going to just dismiss anything else that pops up. Come January, we are going to be buried with back to back to back big dogs and everyone is going to be standing around with their pants down. Stock up on stuff now people. Perhaps it's fizzling for you ... It's good for the northern tier to have a deep snow pack 🤤 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Moving forward... MJO Phase 7 for La Nina, JAN MJO Phase 8 for La Nina, JAN From Paul Roundy Research which is more specific. Shows affects in 10 day increments. Has a similar look. Phase 7, JAN 1-10 Phase 8, JAN 1-10 Phase 7 & 8 very similar for JAN 1-10. As JAN moves along Phase 7 & 8 both become increasingly unfavorable. As we get to mid month you want Phase 1 or 2 if MJO is driving the pattern. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 7 hours ago, Cdfarabaugh said: Super quiet in here. While we all get our super cold christmas it looks to quickly go the other way heading towards new years 😞 .......if the Goofus is to be believed. Just a little lull. 😉 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just wait until Later January and into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 12 hours ago, Cdfarabaugh said: Super quiet in here. While we all get our super cold christmas it looks to quickly go the other way heading towards new years 😞 .......if the Goofus is to be believed. GEFS and EPS 6-10 vs. 11-15. Talk about a snap back. Is it possible we had something so extreme the only reasonable recovery is to overshoot back? It doesn't feel like it works like that in weather but certainly there is a stink in the air. The cmc isn't quite as bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Nothing terrible but nothing good here either so perhaps thats the result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cdfarabaugh Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: GEFS and EPS 6-10 vs. 11-15. Talk about a snap back. Is it possible we had something so extreme the only reasonable recovery is to overshoot back? It doesn't feel like it works like that in weather but certainly there is a stink in the air. The cmc isn't quite as bad Who knows I'm not trusting any of this model bullshit to be honest anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now