Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[SOMOSnow]

1 minute ago, Iceresistance said:

No

I wasn't asking in a serious way. Just having fun. 

[1816]

7 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said:

I was just joking around lol. I can take it tho haha.

I'm one of the ones still in here. I know how pointless it is to give it much thought about something not happening until late next week at this point but I still can't help myself. 

Edited December 14, 2022 by 1816

[Ohiobuckeye45]

 

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

The reason why it slowed is because of the models being finicky. 

 

1 hour ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Plenty of tracking action in the regional storm threads - more members spending their time in those storm threads than in here. 

yeah I've started rapid firing regional threads and spending time in those haha. But still intently watching the teleconnections in this thread. The effects of a rising PNA the last several days is very noticeable 

 

[Wally Ho]

Good afternoon.  I’ve heard that the PV is about to strengthen robustly and was wondering if you experts concur and, if so, what that implies for conditions in the northeast looking out towards the holidays and beyond.  Thank you.

[Iceresistance]

35 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

 

 

yeah I've started rapid firing regional threads and spending time in those haha. But still intently watching the teleconnections in this thread. The effects of a rising PNA the last several days is very noticeable 

 

The models could be overdoing the +PNA, they did that in February 2021 and you know what happened then.

[Grace]

11 minutes ago, Wally Ho said:

Good afternoon.  I’ve heard that the PV is about to strengthen robustly and was wondering if you experts concur and, if so, what that implies for conditions in the northeast looking out towards the holidays and beyond.  Thank you.

 

There were 2 model runs in the long range showing that but why anyone is jumping on that right now is weird, considering the same people scold anyone post long-range stratosphere warming. 

[Grace]

11 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The models could be overdoing the +PNA, they did that in February 2021 and you know what happened then.

 

Too much +PNA is good for no one but possibly coastal regions. Nuetral to weak/+PNA would be just fine. 

[MesoscaleBanding]

Christmas afternoon according to the GFS - not a great beach day if you're heading south for the holiday!

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

4 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

The models could be overdoing the +PNA, they did that in February 2021 and you know what happened then.

Over doing? It's showing values of neutral to +1 for a majority of the period with +2 briefly, neutral to +1 is hardly even qualified as + by telliconnection standards.

The models could be doing alot of things wrong if we're playing the hypothetical card. Some of which could go both ways (good and bad for winter lovers)

 

[Iceresistance]

2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Over doing? It's showing values of neutral to +1 for a majority of the period with +2 briefly, neutral to +1 is hardly even qualified as + by telliconnection standards.

The models could be doing alot of things wrong if we're playing the hypothetical card. Some of which could go both ways (good and bad for winter lovers)

 

The GFS runs have been showing a strong +PNA ridge in the Western United States, that is the part that the models could be overdoing.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Just now, Iceresistance said:

The GFS runs have been showing a strong +PNA ridge in the Western United States, that is the part that the models could be overdoing.

I just posted the PNA, no models are showing a strong PNA. The GFS spikes once after Christmas briefly but at that point your talking about 11 days out. Outside that, alignment is within a neutral to positive PNA up to Christmas 

[Iceresistance]

Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

I just posted the PNA, no models are showing a strong PNA. The GFS spikes once after Christmas briefly but at that point your talking about 11 days out. Outside that, alignment is within a neutral to positive PNA up to Christmas 

The 18z GFS has weakened the +PNA ridge more than the 12z run.

This is what I'm talking about

Even if the PNA is a +1, it would moderate the cold getting to the Southern Plains.

Lower than that would prime the coldest air towards me, and more negative would aim it towards the west.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

3 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The 18z GFS has weakened the +PNA ridge more than the 12z run.

This is what I'm talking about

Even if the PNA is a +1, it would moderate the cold getting to the Southern Plains.

Lower than that would prime the coldest air towards me, and more negative would aim it towards the west.

👍

[Ohiobuckeye45]

12z NAEFS

[1816]

I'm not a big football fan but I can't help it, I love watching games in extreme weather. I've often kicked around ideas for a way of compiling info on a weekly basis for a quick look to tell if there are any weather games being played. Heavy rain, snow, extreme cold. 

I'm too busy(=lazy) to look into it further. Or heck maybe something already exists for that. But I'm wondering if this extreme cold shot is going to produce another ice bowl somewhere. I hope so. 

[MesoscaleBanding]

13 minutes ago, 1816 said:

I'm not a big football fan but I can't help it, I love watching games in extreme weather. I've often kicked around ideas for a way of compiling info on a weekly basis for a quick look to tell if there are any weather games being played. Heavy rain, snow, extreme cold. 

I'm too busy(=lazy) to look into it further. Or heck maybe something already exists for that. But I'm wondering if this extreme cold shot is going to produce another ice bowl somewhere. I hope so. 

There are outdoor games in Cleveland, Pittsburgh & Chicago on Christmas Eve

[Grace]

[Ohiobuckeye45]

2 hours ago, 1816 said:

I'm not a big football fan but I can't help it, I love watching games in extreme weather. I've often kicked around ideas for a way of compiling info on a weekly basis for a quick look to tell if there are any weather games being played. Heavy rain, snow, extreme cold. 

I'm too busy(=lazy) to look into it further. Or heck maybe something already exists for that. But I'm wondering if this extreme cold shot is going to produce another ice bowl somewhere. I hope so. 

 

2 hours ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

There are outdoor games in Cleveland, Pittsburgh & Chicago on Christmas Eve

the sat night game at Buffalo will be a coin flip on LES

[StormfanaticInd]

4 hours ago, Grace said:

That -nao is not going anywhere 

[StormfanaticInd]

Crazy!

[Psu1313]

12 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

That -nao is not going anywhere 

????? We've rode in neutral for most of the last 3 months and there is really nothing showing that you're getting a huge -NAO going. 

Edited December 15, 2022 by Psu1313

[Grace]

 

Edited December 15, 2022 by Grace

[Grace]

2 hours ago, Psu1313 said:

????? We've rode in neutral for most of the last 3 months and there is really nothing showing that you're getting a huge -NAO going. 

 

Umm...

#1 this is today at 12z

 

#2 See that big purple under Greenland? That's in the NAO region. That's a -NAO.

 

#3 DEC 21st...-NAO

 

#4 DEC 24...-NAO

 

#5 the graph you posted just shows we had a big -NAO.

#6 The red line is simply based off model runs.

#7 It will relax but the return of more -NAO is extremely likely in JAN at some point. 

 

I'm not trying to be a smarty pants. 🙂

 

[so_whats_happening]

7 hours ago, Grace said:

 

Umm...

#1 this is today at 12z

 

#2 See that big purple under Greenland? That's in the NAO region. That's a -NAO.

 

#3 DEC 21st...-NAO

 

#4 DEC 24...-NAO

 

#5 the graph you posted just shows we had a big -NAO.

#6 The red line is simply based off model runs.

#7 It will relax but the return of more -NAO is extremely likely in JAN at some point. 

 

I'm not trying to be a smarty pants. 🙂

 

This is where the idea of a west based and east based -NAO come in. A true -NAO is ridging over Greenland with a low cutting underneath just west of the Azores. They can come in different flavors too Rex block like look Omega block look. East based -NAO is ridging along the eastern side and just offshore of Greenland and low more over to UK where a west based -NAO is more over NE Hudson/ Baffin Bay region with a solid 50/50 low for us, usually. West based helps us out more than east based but it is simply where the pressure pattern sets up into a set domain box. Clearly we know nature does not follow our spatial limitations to define the pressure pattern. So it is not wrong to see how far west our NAO pattern is right now would offer up a teleconnection signal near neutral. If we see a re-emergence into more ridging over Greenland than over eastern Canada then we go back into the more -NAO domain via latitude and longitude limitations we put.

You can see this by the picture you posted for today of the -NAO (west based, rather far west based) where in the teleconnection page of CPC would justify it as near neutral because we have removed most of the ridging from Greenland. As we move onto the 21st we see it pushed back over toward Greenland due to ridging popping up out west and now would be more of -NAO on the teleconnection page.

[StormfanaticInd]

This pattern looks to continue into January.