Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Models starting to pick up a bit more of a +PNA influenced look towards the end of their runs the last few runs. This should help to get some clipper type help on the snow front in the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 29 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said: I feel like this is going to be a remarkable night for the models, or at least a couple. Let's see what happens..... 0z GFS, Canadian and Euro on deck. Gut feeling GFS (for one) is gonna do something wild. ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ Last Night was insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 (edited) While we are waiting: One of the local meteorologists I talk with is still not a fan of 6z and 18z data. I know in recent years those runs have been improved, but I'd be interested in hearing the thoughts of our forum Mets such as @Ingyball and others on this topic. Thanks in advance for the thoughts via our mets or anyone else who has a take on this topic. Edited December 14, 2022 by SOMOSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 14, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said: While we are waiting: One of the local meteorologists I talk with is still not a fan of 6z and 18z data. I know in recent years those runs have been improved, but I'd be interested in hearing the thoughts of our forum Mets such as @Ingyball and others on this topic. Thanks in advance for the thoughts via our mets or anyone else who has a take on this topic. It used to be a legitimate concern and it's still something I have to tell our older mets at the office that it's different now. I can't remember if it was the FV3 upgrade or the one before that but it's all the same data now. There's a lot more run to run consistency now outside of highly variable patterns like we're seeing now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ingyball said: It used to be a legitimate concern and it's still something I have to tell our older mets at the office that it's different now. I can't remember if it was the FV3 upgrade or the one before that but it's all the same data now. There's a lot more run to run consistency now outside of highly variable patterns like we're seeing now. Thank you. He's a longtime met and that may explain it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 (edited) 39 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said: While we are waiting: One of the local meteorologists I talk with is still not a fan of 6z and 18z data. I know in recent years those runs have been improved, but I'd be interested in hearing the thoughts of our forum Mets such as @Ingyball and others on this topic. Thanks in advance for the thoughts via our mets or anyone else who has a take on this topic. I still think 06/18z runs result in more noise than signal. It's not possible to calibrate a model to initialize just as well with and without upper air observations. Yet we still try. Edited December 14, 2022 by StLweatherjunkie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said: I still think 06/18z runs result in more noise than signal. It's not possible to calibrate a model to initialize just as well with and without upper air observations. Yet we still try. That's his issue as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 14, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said: I still think 06/18z runs really in more noise than signal. It's not possible to calibrate a model to initialize just as well with and without upper air observations. Yet we still try. There's definitely a difference when you get a new model run, the radiosonde data is invaluable. However, when you're comparing it to previous runs it's still assimilated additional data since then. Before 2015 there was definitely a lot less skill with the 6z/18z runs, but not enough to make them worthless. I found a PowerPoint from 2015 made by someone at NCEP that took a look at verification. There were a couple of interesting quotes. "Annually averaged, forecast scores of the later 06Z (18Z) cycle are significantly better than that of the 6-hour earlier 00Z (12Z) cycle for forecast up to 6 (7) days, if both are validated at the same verification time." "Even though the 06Z and 18Z cycles are less skillful, when validated at the same verification time the later 06Z (18Z) cycle does show consistently better forecast skills than the earlier 00Z (12Z) cycle for short to medium-range forecasts." Again this is pretty old, I believe that gap has closed some as well but even before that the 6z and 18z runs were worth looking at. GFS4cycle_2015_NWP_Chicago_15A.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 (edited) 0z gfs ....👇 snow in ocean in deep south. Lol. Edited December 14, 2022 by SOMOSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Okay, that is an extremely long post. Not intentional. I constantly have trouble with quoting posts or stuff I post spacing like crazy and then having trouble fixing it. Super annoying bur don't know where to get help. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, SOMOSnow said: Not intentional. I constantly have trouble with quoting posts or stuff I post spacing like crazy and then having trouble fixing it. Super annoying bur don't know where to get help. Sorry. I can't blame you if that shows up, it could be a formatting error or something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, Iceresistance said: I can't blame you if that shows up, it could be a formatting error or something. I was finally able to edit it down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 45 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said: I still think 06/18z runs result in more noise than signal. It's not possible to calibrate a model to initialize just as well with and without upper air observations. Yet we still try. Thank you, STL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 (edited) The Canadian has a big storm this time and the gfs has a decent snow event. Tonight's model runs look lost Edited December 14, 2022 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 I woke up to use the bathroom and this is insane!!!! I’d say about 75%+ of the United States wakes up below freezing Christmas Day anywhere north of about the Ohio river basin doesn’t get out of the single digits Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. And most people from Minnesota east get a clipper like system to make it a white Christmas on top of it with 2-4 of snow GFS is off the wall right now! Oh and a 1060 high pressure still exists out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 7 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: The Canadian has a big storm this time and the gfs has a decent snow event. Tonight's model runs look lost It did that in February 2021 as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 (edited) Wow,, this thread has really slowed down the last couple days. We need you back in here, Grace. 🤣 Edited December 14, 2022 by SOMOSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, SOMOSnow said: Wow,, this thread has really slowed down the last couple days. We need you back in here @Grace. The reason why it slowed is because of the models being finicky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 This is probably the time frame when smart people take a weather break. Still just under a week until we need to really start paying attention again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 35 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said: Wow,, this thread has really slowed down the last couple days. We need you back in here, Grace. 🤣 Plenty of tracking action in the regional storm threads - more members spending their time in those storm threads than in here. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, 1816 said: This is probably the time frame when smart people take a weather break. Still just under a week until we need to really start paying attention again. Are you calling us stupid? Lol Edited December 14, 2022 by SOMOSnow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 53 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Plenty of tracking action in the regional storm threads - more members spending their time in those storm threads than in here. Yes, I knew that was part of it. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, SOMOSnow said: Are you calling us stupid? Lol No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, SOMOSnow said: Are you calling us stupid? Lol No, just talking about me. 🤣 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, 1816 said: No, just talking about me. 🤣 I was just joking around lol. I can take it tho haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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