Iceresistance Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: for a couple days now there has been a trend back towards more neutral telliconnections except the AO. The models are still unsure, the 1070+ mb Arctic HPs are very rarely seen if ever experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted December 13, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 13, 2022 59 minutes ago, Ingyball said: Alright, I need to figure out how to lock in that 6z GFS run.  I do pay the price for that much snow this run though, but I'm okay with extreme cold if there is good snow on the ground. Hah! I'm hoping we can have any snow cover after this week's system before the Arctic arrives in the Plains. Neither me nor my dog will be super excited about sub zero high temperatures. Plus the UA launches will become a pain 😞 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 13, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, MidwestWX said: Hah! I'm hoping we can have any snow cover after this week's system before the Arctic arrives in the Plains. Neither me nor my dog will be super excited about sub zero high temperatures. Plus the UA launches will become a pain 😞 One of the few reasons why I'm glad we don't do UA here, but the downside is we get none of that data so overall it's a negative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 So I feel like we’re starting to see the true nature of the upcoming arctic air and realize how it’ll be a dry airmass with one or two snow chances thrown in(yes, it only take one to make it worthwhile). But we’ve been banging the “make it cold” drum for too long and we’re too far in to change our minds for fear of looking silly. I like the cold AND snow. Not cold and dry. And I like cold and dry but not warm and wet. Ugh, it’s a hard path to tread lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 A 1070 high is just madness 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: A 1070 high is just madness I don’t think I’ve ever seen one past 1055mb that translated down to the surface. That was Feb 2021. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, NWOhioChaser said: I don’t think I’ve ever seen one past 1055mb that translated down to the surface. That was Feb 2021. We are going to be squashed 🙃 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 13, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 13, 2022 That big storm is still there on the 12z GFS but further east this go around. Big snow for Illinois and Indiana. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 13, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, Ingyball said: That big storm is still there on the 12z GFS but further east this go around. Big snow for Illinois and Indiana. just created a thread 2 minutes ago, Ingyball said: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ingyball said: That big storm is still there on the 12z GFS but further east this go around. Big snow for Illinois and Indiana. I'm really not sure what to think, I mean, there is no way the GFS is remotely in the ballpark on this 12z run, right. It's a singular OP run, past 7 days, I know, so immediately have your wariness levels up, but then I mentioned last night that 1064mb is the highest high pressure ever recorded in the contiguous US. The GFS says...welp...forget about that. The Euro has that high sitting at 1057-1059. I won't dive into individual ensemble members, but I think it's pretty obvious that the cold absolute means business, but also it has a chance to potentially be historic, and you don't get to say that all that often. Will the models back down over the course of the next week, I'd have to imagine that they will somewhat, but when you see something on a map you never expect to see, it really makes you sit up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Heard that the GFS has a easterly bias on the cold and the storm systems. February 2021 had the CPC featuring the cold closer to the Mississippi River and further to the east. Well, you know what happened then. Spoiler Took a Dive bomb into Texas and Mexico! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 16 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Lets see how much we can take off this. Surely Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic should reverse, maybe up to about Boston. I really hope the cold is what you guys wanted because im sure we will start hearing about how everything is suppressed so far south. I was going to say this, because we’re all thinking it in the back of our minds. Suppression means Texas and Oklahoma will get more snow than most of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Most people do not understand the power and potential of a 1070+ mb Arctic HP, that is being shown in the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 44 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Most people do not understand the power and potential of a 1070+ mb Arctic HP, that is being shown in the models. The pressure gradient this would create with modeled storm would be crazy I would think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: The pressure gradient this would create with modeled storm would be crazy I would think. It's not just that, the models are way too warm as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: It's not just that, the models are way too warm as well. Maybe slightly, but not a ton. 12z in the Butte, Montana region is -40 to -45 degrees. At 9z, I found a few -47's. The all-time record is -52 and high pressure does not translate 1 to 1 to temperature. 1983, you were one crazy winter. https://buttearchives.org/coldest-day-in-butte/#:~:text=On December 23%2C 1983%2C Butte,colder than elsewhere in town. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Holy 12z Euro! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 47 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Holy 12z Euro! Hoping it's way off base with its temperatures at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: Hoping it's way off base with its temperatures at the end of the run. The western half of the Nation is BELOW ZERO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: Hoping it's way off base with its temperatures at the end of the run. Just now, Iceresistance said: The western half of the Nation is BELOW ZERO! do with this comparison what you will 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, Iceresistance said: The western half of the Nation is BELOW ZERO! I know! -21 in Reno NV, while everyone east of the Mississippi gets torched. Really hope it's an outlier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 (edited) ^ is point out the mean trough positioning is wildly (maybe an understatement) different Edited December 13, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 52 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: ^ is point out the mean trough positioning is wildly (maybe an understatement) different Split the difference & give me a Runner up the west side of the Apps 😄 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now