Iceresistance Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 42 minutes ago, Grace said: What is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 49 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: What is it? Some people get all excited when it's cold in Siberia. I figure it's Siberia. It's supposed to be cold. 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Smart money is on a backloaded winter again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 9 hours ago, Grace said: Smart money is on a backloaded winter again. I agree but we are long overdue for a good December. Sooner are later the law of averages will win out 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al_Czervik Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 4 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: I agree but we are long overdue for a good December. Sooner are later the law of averages will win out Minus the normal monsoon season in the southwest and the normal temps for the Great Lakes region, it seems the same as last year. I have said the same thing about the law of averages yet it seems that they never pan out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 This La Nina is really looking east based now. Check out the last frame. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 28, 2022 On 9/20/2022 at 5:35 PM, Grace said: BTW, where is everyone at? Did they go back to the other forum or what? Nah still kinda early usually October/November people start to log on again. I myself have been with out internet at work for the last 2-3 weeks so have not had a chance to do much while at work and when I am off work I am usually busy around the house prepping things for winter. We went full on fall across much of the east recently so that should help with folks seeing the seasonal shift. The tropical activity has been putting a dent in local spots for SST anoms but we need broad strong troughs and winds to start up soon. We may just be able to tame those temps off the coast yet. Still a solid 2 months before we start to see snow chances around here, but not unheard of around halloween beginning of November. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 28, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, Grace said: This La Nina is really looking east based now. Check out the last frame. We may have another pretty decent trade wind situation brewing toward the beginning of October. Those cooler waters should migrate back over to 3.4 and eventually 4 in the next month and allow for another warming of SSTs in the east pac before we get another shot. This wind event would surface in the east by about late October/ Early November time frame and just help re-enforce the Nina status. We may get close to moderate status again as we push toward winter. We would need a rather large wind event and for it to sustain for more than a few days to really push us to anywhere near strong status. Original thoughts were 4 and 3.4 would sustain for quite some time 1+2 and 3 would be back and forth and slowly erode to neutral or even slight Nino like state (persistently) as we progress through winter and overall the Nina should weaken starting December area (this will be a tough call, as there are no guarantees of this). One thing of note is the rather persistent look of ridging going into western Canada through the western US rockies. We will have some interludes coming up where -PNA will show itself but overall the positive/ neutral look will persist so it seems. Much different from this time last year where we set a record -PDO with a +EPO/ -PNA pattern that was quite intense for September and October. Edited September 28, 2022 by so_whats_happening 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 CanSips updated DEC JAN FEB The 20 Cansip ensembles 2m temps: DEC JAN FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 10 hours ago, Grace said: CanSips updated DEC JAN FEB The 20 Cansip ensembles 2m temps: DEC JAN FEB Interesting. I got a feeling about this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 (edited) European model updated Nov & Dec look good. Strong -NAO NOV DEC We might have a fun Dec afterall if that verifies. Jan & Feb look like crap but plenty of time for that to change. Edited October 5, 2022 by Grace 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 saw a jet black woolly worm 2 days ago and we have a huge acorn crop....batten down the hatches 😂 1 4 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 Interesting sea surface temperatures still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al_Czervik Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 6 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Interesting sea surface temperatures still. After we chug through another La nina this winter, what are the chances it could happen again for 2023-2024? Overall the current patterns don't show much in the way of change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 10, 2022 Admin Share Posted October 10, 2022 On 10/7/2022 at 11:04 AM, Ohiobuckeye45 said: saw a jet black woolly worm 2 days ago and we have a huge acorn crop....batten down the hatches 😂 Haven't seen any woolies this year, but there's almost no acorns here, especially compared to last year. Truth be told, I've seen the acorn thing go both ways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 53 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Haven't seen any woolies this year, but there's almost no acorns here, especially compared to last year. Truth be told, I've seen the acorn thing go both ways. I actually went on to research it a bit and turns out nut trees are 1 year behind climate process, fall rains would equate to spring flowering thus following fall crop. So in actuality given what we had last year here this years crop makes sense. And because we've had a bone dry fall....it sounds like spring flowering will be off and be a low crop next fall the more you know 😅 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 10, 2022 Admin Share Posted October 10, 2022 49 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: I actually went on to research it a bit and turns out nut trees are 1 year behind climate process, fall rains would equate to spring flowering thus following fall crop. So in actuality given what we had last year here this years crop makes sense. And because we've had a bone dry fall....it sounds like spring flowering will be off and be a low crop next fall the more you know 😅 Just going by the law of averages, I'm expecting above average snowfall out here. The last two seasons have been a bit lacking the luster. Guess it's time to ramp up the Siberian snow cover thing. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-winter-weather-snow-cover-influence-forecast-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 A sign of things to come later on???🤔 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 3 hours ago, MaineJay said: Haven't seen any woolies this year, but there's almost no acorns here, especially compared to last year. Truth be told, I've seen the acorn thing go both ways. I have a BUNCH of Oak Trees and the Acorns can hurt when they land on your head! It's like being pounded with nickel to quarter sized hail! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 2 hours ago, Iceresistance said: I have a BUNCH of Oak Trees and the Acorns can hurt when they land on your head! It's like being pounded with nickel to quarter sized hail! Ever stood under a black walnut tree this time of year?! 😱 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: A sign of things to come later on???🤔 I was just getting on to post this 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 23 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Ever stood under a black walnut tree this time of year?! 😱 More like Golf Ball sized hailstorm with the walnuts! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 Look what I see in my long range forecast...❄️ 2 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted October 11, 2022 Admin Share Posted October 11, 2022 I have this internal alarm in my head. Whenever it gets cold enough that I turn the furnace on at night, I come lurk in the long range forecast thread to read all the juicy gossip about four letter words starting with s. 😁 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted October 11, 2022 Admin Share Posted October 11, 2022 11 hours ago, BuckeyeGal said: I have this internal alarm in my head. Whenever it gets cold enough that I turn the furnace on at night, I come lurk in the long range forecast thread to read all the juicy gossip about four letter words starting with s. 😁 The Phoenix Suns? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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