Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Iceresistance]

27 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

Yes, starting to see the cold on the operational models more now.

Also has a 1068 mb HP over the Artic Ocean, which is insane for a model that is normally very conservative for this. 

[StLweatherjunkie]

2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Admittedly, I'm very new to the EFI so I won't really comment on it, other than it appears (to me) to show the dump west, bleed east type regime.

 There's explanation on how to read the charts below the D5-9 chart.

Link to data.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/efi2web_2t?facets=undefined&time=2022121100,0,2022121100&day=10-15&quantile=50&area=North America

Days 5-9, 2m temps 

 

Days 10-15

 

These are the EFI images I'm accustomed to viewing: https://satable.ncep.noaa.gov/efi/# ... I didn't even know this was accessible until @Ingyball said so a few days ago. He may have already shared it, but I like it since it focuses on weather hazard kind of information. Can't view anything past day 7 though. 

This thread is probably most interested in the snow column and the High Plains storm is a great learning example. I'll show wind and snow charts for both days of the event.

Day 1, a shift of tails of 2 and EFI >0.9 means extreme snow amounts by South Dakota standards with less extreme values where high winds are likely to accompany snowfall (western NE and northeast CO). Conclusion, snow amounts in SD are more likely to be record breaking than wind gusts anywhere in the CONUS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 still has very seasonally/regionally unusual snowfall, but amounts are less likely to be record breaking. Winds remain fairly weak in the area of heaviest snow, at least compared to that area's climatology. The Dakotas are a windy place so blizzard conditions may still occur, but the snow aspect of the storm is likely to be more impactful than the wind aspect.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A snowy portion of this system then visits my area then the northeast too with some unusually large snowfall amounts possible on the northwest shores of several Great Lakes where climatology is relatively low. While winds should be gusty as this tracks east, winds don't appear to be seasonally/regionally unusual so I didn't bother including those images. 

Edited December 11, 2022 by StLweatherjunkie

[Iceresistance]

 

[Iceresistance]

 

[Iceresistance]

1064mb at the Arctic Ocean on the 12z ICON

[StLweatherjunkie]

1 hour ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

These are the EFI images I'm accustomed to viewing: https://satable.ncep.noaa.gov/efi/# ... I didn't even know this was accessible until @Ingyball said so a few days ago. He may have already shared it, but I like it since it focuses on weather hazard kind of information. Can't view anything past day 7 though. 

This thread is probably most interested in the snow column and the High Plains storm is a great learning example. I'll show wind and snow charts for both days of the event.

Day 1, a shift of tails of 2 and EFI >0.9 means extreme snow amounts by South Dakota standards with less extreme values where high winds are likely to accompany snowfall (western NE and northeast CO). Conclusion, snow amounts in SD are more likely to be record breaking than wind gusts anywhere in the CONUS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 still has very seasonally/regionally unusual snowfall, but amounts are less likely to be record breaking. Winds remain fairly weak in the area of heaviest snow, at least compared to that area's climatology. The Dakotas are a windy place so blizzard conditions may still occur, but the snow aspect of the storm is likely to be more impactful than the wind aspect.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A snowy portion of this system then visits my area then the northeast too with some unusually large snowfall amounts possible on the northwest shores of several Great Lakes where climatology is relatively low. While winds should be gusty as this tracks east, winds don't appear to be seasonally/regionally unusual so I didn't bother including those images. 

I just loaded this on a different screen and the formatting is all sorts of fudged up. Does it look like a mess to anyone else?

[Iceresistance]

2 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

I just loaded this on a different screen and the formatting is all sorts of fudged up. Does it look like a mess to anyone else?

Too far to the right on my screen when I had it loaded up.

[MaineJay]

1 minute ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

I just loaded this on a different screen and the formatting is all sorts of fudged up. Does it look like a mess to anyone else?

Came up as a chart for me, but clicking on the header of a parameter brought up the map.

[Iceresistance]

1067 mb HP in the Arctic Ocean on the 12z GFS

[Iceresistance]

1077 mb on the 12z CMC model!? That is beyond INSANE!

[mafa]

That type of cold push has Merry White Christmas for the Deep South while most of the country is cold and dry

[StLweatherjunkie]

This is depressingly hilarious. The Keweenaw is on another level, I found one pixel of 89" in there 🤣. 

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

This is depressingly hilarious. The Keweenaw is on another level, I found one pixel of 89" in there 🤣. 

Depressing?? Why?

[SOMOSnow]

Through hour 312, the 12z Canadian ensemble is probably the coldest ensemble mean I've ever seen. 

 

 

 

[Ingyball]

It feels like I'm in Ohio again lol. I need to hope we get hit with snow on the front end here and if not then it's live and die by clipper systems and hope that snow adds up over time lol. I think suppressed is the way to go. Should work out well for Texas and the East Coast. 

[StLweatherjunkie]

7 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Depressing?? Why?

Where I live gets only 0.3" of snow during the final 10 days of the model run, which makes the cold unwelcome. If it's not gonna snow then at least keep the wind chill above 0F please. 

[Iceresistance]

4 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said:

Through hour 312, the 12z Canadian ensemble is probably the coldest ensemble mean I've ever seen. 

 

 

 

Do you have an image of it? I really want to share it on the other forum.

[SOMOSnow]

🚨👀 These are almost unheard of for 7 and 10 day ensemble anomalies. Let's keep that in mind. 12z Canadian ensemble mean temps day 6 to 16 and day 9 to 16 are remarkable for an ensemble average. 👇

Edited December 11, 2022 by SOMOSnow

[SOMOSnow]

🚨👀 Remarkable consistency! And these are ensemble means. These are off the charts for ensembles! Here is hour 300 of 12z Canadian ensemble mean and GEFS ensemble mean at hour 300. 👇

[StormfanaticInd]

3 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said:

🚨👀 Remarkable consistency! And these are ensemble means. These are off the charts for ensembles! Here is hour 300 of 12z Canadian ensemble mean and GEFS ensemble mean at hour 300. 👇

This is brutal cold!

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[Cdfarabaugh]

13 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

 

An I the only one that thinks James Spann's profile picture is Jim Lahey off trailer park boys? Lol

[Hassaywx1223]

11 minutes ago, Cdfarabaugh said:

An I the only one that thinks James Spann's profile picture is Jim Lahey off trailer park boys? Lol

He is the weather bud 😂

[SOMOSnow]

12z GEFS ensemble mean temp anomalies day 6 to 16. 👇

[Grace]

If East Asia verifies they'll be snow opportunities with the cold as well. Certainly suppression is risk but east Asia is a good gage: