Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Grace said:

After looking at MJO it appears some of the differences are related to it. Models that keep it in the COD have a good LR look. Models that bring it out through 2 & 3 don't. 

PHASE 2, DEC La Nina

 

PHASE 3, DEC La Nina

 

So, certainly that's something to watch. For La Nina DEC if MJO cranks up you want Phases 5-8. Everything else sucks. COD is good since it just went through phases 7 & 8. 

 

This is why we can't get a decent December anymore. Everything would have to line up perfectly for it to happen, which is almost impossible. 

[Grace]

4 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

This is why we can't get a decent December anymore. Everything would have to line up perfectly for it to happen, which is almost impossible. 

 

Not impossible. It's always been this way to getting a good DEC.

MJO forecasts have been been eratic & unreliable. If GFS, JMA, CFS are correct about MJO then their solutions will be correct as well. However, if Euro & EPS & other models that keep it in the COD are correct their solutions will be.

One more piece of the pie to considering that East Asia Mountain Torque would imply we will indeed get a PAC jet extension which will help with ridging out west. 

 

 

[SNOWBOB11]

It’s well too quick to right off the incoming cold because of a couple inconsistent GFS runs. That model has been all over the place recently. Not that it might not be on to something but I like that the euro is still on board.

[Grace]

Sorry for all my posts cluttering this thread lat 2 pages. I'm just trying to work through the model noise to see the cause & then determine which may be correct with all factors considering. 

Last piece...East Asia 500mb forecast looks pretty good & does not cause concern. Obvious when we get past day 10 it's hard to know but before that is what I pay most attention to. Here's the entire loop:

[Grace]

3 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

It’s well too quick to right off the incoming cold because of a couple inconsistent GFS runs. That model has been all over the place recently. Not that it might not be on to something but I like that the euro is still on board.

It's not just GFS if you look at a what I provided on the post on the page before. But with that said I've posted why those models are doing that & why Euro is not more than likely. Don't know which is correct. 

[Ingyball]

I have already said multiple times that it's not worth fretting over run to run model variance, even from global ensembles. Pattern recognition is key and this pattern favors big cold. Yes the highest anomalies will be favored towards the Plains, but most of y'all don't want that deep cold anyways. 

 

 

I'm not sure how closely some of y'all were following the February 2021 cold outbreak in the Plains but the models did this very same thing. The Euro didn't have DFW going below freezing until 2 days before and they hit the single digits lol. However, I knew that the pattern favored deep cold and warned family and friends ahead of time. 

[1816]

50 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

This is dejavu...I go to bed Friday night with everything looking great and wake up Saturday morning to everything falling apart and Torchcember returning for a 10th encore performance. 

 

40 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

This is why we can't get a decent December anymore. Everything would have to line up perfectly for it to happen, which is almost impossible. 

So here's my issue with you guys. I think it's great how you all say it's always torching in December and we will never see cold again and all the models are faking out and going back to warmth. You're entitled to that opinion and it should be respected.

But when you jump all over the next run thats showing record cold and storms, that respect goes right out the window. If you would keep beating the drum about these cold outbreaks are fake news and tomorrow you'll see, it'll be back to torch then that consistency is reapectable. But you're just bandwagon hopping every 3 or 4 model cycles. 

As for me, as I said weeks ago, back half of the month looks good to me for cold and storm. I never thought it would be record breaking but I think it is on the table at least.  And all these warmth anomaly maps never had me biting anyway. I'll be right here week after next to either give hww some crap or eat my crow either way.

As for my particular  area, we're at least a few days into this so called warm spell that was modeled end of last month and so far we are 1.3 above. It's really cold out there today, and I don't expect any kind of major warmth outbreak any time soon. I expect Dec will be below average overall, I'd bet on it. 

[Grace]

10 minutes ago, 1816 said:

 

So here's my issue with you guys. I think it's great how you all say it's always torching in December and we will never see cold again and all the models are faking out and going back to warmth. You're entitled to that opinion and it should be respected.

But when you jump all over the next run thats showing record cold and storms, that respect goes right out the window. If you would keep beating the drum about these cold outbreaks are fake news and tomorrow you'll see, it'll be back to torch then that consistency is reapectable. But you're just bandwagon hopping every 3 or 4 model cycles. 

As for me, as I said weeks ago, back half of the month looks good to me for cold and storm. I never thought it would be record breaking but I think it is on the table at least.  And all these warmth anomaly maps never had me biting anyway. I'll be right here week after next to either give hww some crap or eat my crow either way.

As for my particular  area, we're at least a few days into this so called warm spell that was modeled end of last month and so far we are 1.3 above. It's really cold out there today, and I don't expect any kind of major warmth outbreak any time soon. I expect Dec will be below average overall, I'd bet on it. 

 I lean on below average as well. There's no need to take any model hiccup as gospel if it's cold or warm. But we do have to consider them & try to understand why.

You know me...I'm for cold & snow 365 days a year. 😜

[Psu1313]

This all goes back to positioning. I think we can all agree that there is going to be a big slog of cold air dropping down in the west and through the great plains. The question then is what happens next. Is everyone going to get some cold, yes. There is a likelihood of prolonged cold the farther north and toward the middle/western part of the country you go. The further east you go, the more questions arise.

My take is that we are still in a La Nina and the position of the blocking is not positioned well to really hold the cold in the east. You'll see the cold come through, chance for a storm, SER pops up a bit and then cold comes again. My concern is that we end up with a bunch of cutters that are cold fronts from Indiana/Ohio on east but this could turn into apps runners.  

The good:

• We're going to get a bunch of storms to track
• The west is going to get a bunch of moisture! A lot of California is going to see 2-5 inches of precipitation over the next week with more in the mountains. 

The bad: 

• If you're east of the Mississippi you're going to be on pins and needles about storms. We'll have troughs and low pressure running around, but will you be on the right side? Will it be suppressed? 
• I still think the east would benefit from a bit of a reset to the PV. Right now, the PV is extremely disjointed, so the PV recovering might help to move the players into better position. 

[Grace]

Grit just tweeted some encouraging news backed up by solid research. 

 

Anthony agrees & applauded. Anthony has never wavered from his thoughts on this potential cold period that he predicted on NOV 17th.

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Ingyball said:

I have already said multiple times that it's not worth fretting over run to run model variance, even from global ensembles. Pattern recognition is key and this pattern favors big cold. Yes the highest anomalies will be favored towards the Plains, but most of y'all don't want that deep cold anyways. 

 

 

I'm not sure how closely some of y'all were following the February 2021 cold outbreak in the Plains but the models did this very same thing. The Euro didn't have DFW going below freezing until 2 days before and they hit the single digits lol. However, I knew that the pattern favored deep cold and warned family and friends ahead of time. 

(On the bottom part): I absolutely knew it was coming and warned the entire school and my family 2 weeks before the front arrived. We were ready for it! I never wavered much compared to the models. 

[Grace]

12z GFS already better by HR 138. This should lead to an improvement at what follows

 

[Grace]

12z GFS through 200hrs compared with the previous 2 runs. 

 

Looks very similar to 0z EURO now. So...previous 2 runs probably hiccups. 🤞 

 

And holy moly is it ever cold by day 9

Edited December 10, 2022 by Grace

[MesoscaleBanding]

Some triple phase action on the GFS?

 

Edited December 10, 2022 by MesoscaleBanding

[MesoscaleBanding]

If we could shift this glacier a few hundred miles south, that'd be cool...

[Ingyball]

8 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

If we could shift this glacier a few hundred miles south, that'd be cool...

Gotta remove some of the snow from early this upcoming week, but that will shift south, it typically does in this pattern. I'm worried about too far north lol.

Edited December 10, 2022 by Ingyball

[WeatherJim]

Man, the snow just wants to avoid Illinois and Indiana.

[Iceresistance]

40 minutes ago, WeatherJim said:

Man, the snow just wants to avoid Illinois and Indiana.

Chicago snow hole. 

[NWOhioChaser]

1 hour ago, WeatherJim said:

Man, the snow just wants to avoid Illinois and Indiana.

And northwestern Ohio too really. 
At least we’re not dealing with a major tornado outbreak this month…did y’all forget todays the one year anniversary of the quad state tor?

Edited December 10, 2022 by NWOhioChaser

[Iceresistance]

13 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

And northwestern Ohio too really. 
At least we’re not dealing with a major tornado outbreak this month…did y’all forget todays the one year anniversary of the quad state tor?

This hour started the storm unlike any other. 

[Grace]

37 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

And northwestern Ohio too really. 
At least we’re not dealing with a major tornado outbreak this month…did y’all forget todays the one year anniversary of the quad state tor?

Trust me...I know I live in Mayfield. 

 

2 miles from my house:

 

 

 

Edited December 10, 2022 by Grace

[Grace]

12z EPS is just incredible

[Iceresistance]

Y'all need to see the Euro-Ensemble Control run! This is for December 22nd in the afternoon! It literally launches the Arctic Cannon!

[Hassaywx1223]

29 minutes ago, Grace said:

Trust me...I know I live in Mayfield. 

 

2 miles from my house:

 

 

 

I’ll never forget this day one of the craziest things I’ve ever seen and my high that day in northeast Ohio was 64 and cloudy it was wild the warm air and the outbreak I’ll always keep these tidbits in my saved photos 

[Ingyball]

Nope Nope Nope