SOMOSnow Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 18z GEFS got colder, overall. Day 6 to 16 and day 9 to 16 temp anomalies below. 👇 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 18z GEFS Christmas Day temp anomalies would be a dream come true for most of us, especially if we have snow on the ground. ♥️🙏 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Considering the expected temps, 18z gefs mean snowfall would likely give most of us a white Christmas! ♥️🎄☃️ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 I don't know how to properly describe this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 That epo is reminiscent of 13/14! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherJim Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 I love the cold, but can't help, but be bummed about the lack of snow in the Chicago area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 I'm looking for the nearest cliff. This trend is 💩 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 I'm not trying to be negative but I'm genuinely worried about what we've been excited about not coming to fruition. You ask what? It's all model related but it's weighing on me. 1. JMA weeklies today 2. 0z GEFS tonight Hoping Euro is great again. I need therapy. 😄 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Other than some front end potential from the storm next week not much to track. Given that we are almost mid month that really sucks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 I'm about to just set my sights on January for snowstorm potential. Decembers no longer produce 🙄😁 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 45 minutes ago, Grace said: I'm looking for the nearest cliff. This trend is 💩 The 00z was an absolute nightmare again. My god I hope it's wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 😱🤔😒 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 31 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: 😱🤔😒 He did say he's referring to East of the Appalachians in a sub tweet. I could see that. It will get to coast eventually...I think. But there will still be snow possibilities even where the coldest avoids I think. 0z Euro looking good on the NE winter storm on the 15-17th. This Euro run is crazy with it! Very slow mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 0z Euro looks really good like 12z. Hopefully ensembles will as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 (edited) Team Euro! If Euro is correct it will get really good right after 10 day period. If CMC or GFS is correct then another outcome in 10-15 day is likely. It is worth noting CMC ensembles do not agree with CMC OP. Edited December 10, 2022 by Grace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 0z EPS is looking great through day 12 so I'm assuming all the flopping of GFS products is due to crack again. At least hoping that. 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Hanging hats on any day 10 guidance is setting the stage for disappointment. IMHO, December is the month where last year's pattern transitions to next year's pattern. If last Feb/Mar wasn't consistently snowy in your location then chances are Dec won't be either. Hopefully next year's pattern favors some of our backyards, but it's been a long time since the west had a real winter too. UP here, winters following a La Nina to El Nino transition can be really good. However, if MBY is doing well then you southerners probably aren't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1816😆 This flip-flopping in the models is driving me crazy. 🙃 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 10, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 10, 2022 We're definitely in the cold disappearing stage with the GFS right now lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: 1816😆 This flip-flopping in the models is driving me crazy. 🙃 I'm so mad. You people even have grace doing it now. 🤣 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Ingyball said: We're definitely in the cold disappearing stage with the GFS right now lol. Before the GFS returns it with a vengeance! Even the updated version still has the older "Return and lock in the cold" mindset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 (edited) 53 minutes ago, 1816 said: I'm so mad. You people even have grace doing it now. 🤣 🤣 The JMA weeklies are normally pretty good. When I saw them right before Iooked at 0z GFS & GEFS...yea, I was stumped. I still am JMA 10-16 day mean JMA 17-30 day mean CFS DEC 15-25 Mean CFS DEC 20-30 Mean To be objective...6z GEFS 10-15 day is still different but is an improvement vs 0z GEFS but still gives doubts. 0z GEFS 10-15 day 6z GEFS 10-15 day But 0z EPS day 10-15...looks good Canadian 10-15 day...kind of a blend of EPS & GEFS & probably at this point the safest way to go. I'd take that but I'm in extreme yellow light mode right now. I'm not attempting to be negative at all or automatically buy bad data; however, i try to be objective & there's enough on the models & BSR that has me at least pumping the breaks. It could honestly be some tropical convective feedback that is causing this on the models or they could be catching onto to something. Edited December 10, 2022 by Grace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Grace said: The JMA weeklies are normally pretty good. When I saw them right before Iooked at 0z GFS & GEFS...yea, I was stumped. I still am JMA 10-16 day mean JMA 17-30 day mean CFS DEC 15-25 Mean CFS DEC 20-30 Mean To be objective...6z F GEFS 10-15 day is still different but is an improvement vs 0z GEFS but still gives doubts. 0z GEFS 10-15 day 6z GEFS 10-15 day But 0z EPS day 10-15...looks good Canadian 10-15 day...kind of a blend of EPS & GEFS & probably at this point the safest way to go. I'd take that but I'm in extreme yellow light mode right now. I'm not attempting to be negative at all or automatically buy bad data; however, i try to be objective & there's enough on the models & BSR that has me at least pumping the breaks. It could honestly be some tropical convective feedback that is causing this on the models or they could be catching onto to something. Nobody here can question people hear using caution. For the majority of the last decade we have dealt with getting torched in December both weather wise and LR forecasting. If it isn't going to be snowy just seasonal is fine by me. I just hope this year I don't have tough choices which flips flops and short I wear to our family Christmas. 😂 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 (edited) This is dejavu...I go to bed Friday night with everything looking great and wake up Saturday morning to everything falling apart and Torchcember returning for a 10th encore performance. Edited December 10, 2022 by HateWinterWarmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 After looking at MJO it appears some of the differences are related to it. Models that keep it in the COD have a good LR look. Models that bring it out through 2 & 3 don't. PHASE 2, DEC La Nina PHASE 3, DEC La Nina So, certainly that's something to watch. For La Nina DEC if MJO cranks up you want Phases 5-8. Everything else sucks. COD is good since it just went through phases 7 & 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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