Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Yeah the day 10 cmc certainly has its own take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 The variability that run was certainly not caused by the EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 0z Canadian ensembles day 6 to 16 and day 9 to 16 👇 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 There's no SE ridge on the GEFS like there was the OP, which is the main driver in variability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Different view, pretty clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 GEFS DAY 12...wow, what a classic look! Alaska & Greenland block kicking! 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 10 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: There's no SE ridge on the GEFS like there was the OP, which is the main driver in variability 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Overall still looks like plenty of potential on the table 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Got to keep a close eye on that storm next week and how it behaves 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 2 hours ago, Grace said: 0z: 🤕 🤒🥵 🤬 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 8, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 8, 2022 3 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: There's no SE ridge on the GEFS like there was the OP, which is the main driver in variability This is when ensemble map with spread can help. Ensembles generally smooth out the flow, especially at longer lead times. I think what's happening is it's still a dump west and bleed east pattern being shown. The timing and amplitude differences make the longwave trof over the CONUS look like broad "U". But looking at the spread in the ensembles, it could well be more of a "W" shadow in reality, with some weak ridging centered nearer the GOMEX with a deeper trof in the west, and ejecting shortwaves traversing the ridging (as we are seeing now), a trof in the west and SE with baby ridging bubbling up betwixt, or most optimistically for snow fans, the longwave progress through, and you get a big storm. The longwave will likely set back up out west (my opinion) to reload (if it ejects wholesale a la the 8/0z ECMWF). Or is it more anchored like the 8/0z GFS, with a shorter reload time, but weaker systems trying to move through a longwave eastern/west Atlantic ridge. I know these aren't hour 300 like the ensemble with spread, but I think it kind of helps define the envelope of solutions. ECMWF GFS A lot like like it's riding on how ridging near Alaska and the Yukon territory behaves. With it's high amplitude, they can prone to anti cyclonic wave breaking, shown by both models with expected amplitude and spatiotemporal differences leading to the disparate solutions. These wave breaks are notoriously hard to pin down, especially being in high latitude, data poor regions. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 8, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 8, 2022 There appears to be good snow west of the continental divide, but as a whole, northern hemisphere show is rather middling. The Chukchi Sea ice (what there is) is really taking a beating from ridging over Alaska. Looks like virtually no ice NW of Alaska until you get closer to Wrangel Island. It's a chicken or the egg argument about this open water assisting in the ridging, or a result of. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 5 hours ago, Grace said: Couple of things. GEFS trends of last 3 runs on Day 9 Comparison of 0z GEFS with Canadian ensemble on Day 9: That -EPO is getting crazier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 6z GFS is better than the 0z, the cursed craziest to nothing pattern may have started! But the Ensembles, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Oh boy! This is from the 0z EPS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 through the first week of Dec 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 8, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 8, 2022 Good morning. Euro ens anomaly through the 23rd Day 8-15 for context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 8, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 8, 2022 How the daily anomalies play out. Wish Accupro had a gif maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 (edited) the system with the cold front on the 16th stays closed off substantially longer than prior runs on the 12z GFS. impacts TBD Edited December 8, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: the system with the cold front on the 16th stays closed off substantially longer than prior runs on the 12z GFS. impacts TBD Keeps it slower moving and south long enough to pop a secondary for an interior NE storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 (edited) Waiting for the 12z GFS, it's already showing that someone may get DUMPED later on but it has yet to show the location of the collision with the snow Edited December 8, 2022 by Iceresistance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 feed is frozen on most sites, theres a storm on the 19th-20th that gets deeply suppressed but is good for the deep south/southern plains area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said: feed is frozen on most sites, theres a storm on the 19th-20th that gets deeply suppressed but is good for the deep south/southern plains area Yep, here I go! 😄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 8, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 8, 2022 Big storm setting up at the end of the Canadian. Wish it went out to 384 hours 🤣 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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