SOMOSnow Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 (edited) 31 minutes ago, Grace said: Oh...I'm about blind I think lol. That makes sense. I wasn't sure I've ever seen a ensemble mean that cold over 6 days in the LR. Kind of glad it was OP. Kind of made me a little alarmed & perplexed. I will take the blame. I normally post the ensembles. Sorry friend :) Edited December 8, 2022 by SOMOSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: February 2021 or 2022 Got to think that would make most of the country cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Oh my goodness! This winter has the potential to make February 2021 look like nothing! Edited December 8, 2022 by Iceresistance Typo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Oh my goodness! This winter has the potential to make February 2021 look like nothing! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted December 8, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 8, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: How do you feel about WPC's Collaborative Forecast Process for QPF/SLRs? I will actually make a public statement. Ill be the first to admit I've been wrong. I went into it expecting to hate it but I've been pleasantly surprised by the collaboration process with WPC. They've played ball with QPF every time I've had a hunch including last Monday's WSW event. I actually prefer their SLRs for the most part as opposed to 4.0s garbage. Once 4.1 becomes the main NBM I expect it'll be more tolerable for the non-Winter obsessed forecaster... (Yes I know this wasn't directed at me but I randomly lurk, it's my thing 😉) Edit: there is the question as to why it's necessary though and that's for discussion over a cold beverage and steak. Edited December 8, 2022 by MidwestWX I'm a goof. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: I know, but I haven't seen a December with this much potential in nearly a decade! It's the cold and snow that is driving me insane! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 minute ago, Iceresistance said: I know, but I haven't seen a December with this much potential in nearly a decade! It's the cold and snow that is driving me insane! I definitely feel you on this. We are WAY overdue for cold and snow in December 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Ingyball said: Still a very strong signal on the GEFS. I'm definitely concerned. 8 to 16 degrees C below normal on an ensemble is scary. It is indeed a strong signal. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Still waiting for the 6-10 day to turn before entertaining the idea of the second half of the month. It does look good the last couple runs but still cautious after getting burned what would be about 10 days ago for today's forecast It is certainly not going to be for everyone, as I know some despise cold with dry stretches but especially this time of year ill take that over whats been an awful week this week 40s/50s with miserable dreary rain and fog and cloud and yuck. You get the cold in here and your odds of having some bright sunny days go up substantially with high pressure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Slight difference to the last couple runs 🎢 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Slight difference to the last couple runs 🎢 We all knew you'd jump all over the 0z gfs . Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Just now, SOMOSnow said: We all knew you'd jump all over the 0z gfs . Lol Dude get over yourself. Leave me alone and I'll leave you alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 (edited) 0z: 🤕 🤒🥵 🤬 Edited December 8, 2022 by Grace 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 8, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 8, 2022 (edited) Don't like that icy look on the 0z GFS. Cold isn't nearly as extreme which I would love, but like I said before living run to run will only make you want to pull your hair out. The pattern looks to be there for the extreme cold (for the Plains especially). Getting the snowpack will definitely be important and it will start with the storm next week in the Dakotas. The models did this exact thing with the February 2021 outbreak too. The cold would vary drastically run to run and sometimes disappear, but the setup was always there. Edited December 8, 2022 by Ingyball 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 5 hours ago, Grace said: We'll all be in despair after 0z the way it's been going. After 18z: 😛😄🤣 After 0z: 🤔😢🤬 Nostradamous 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 (edited) This would actually be better for longterm however, I'm not sure I buy the run. It was not the typical miss we've been having for 10 days but like something was off that led to a weird look. I blame JB's ready to man beat his chest in victory. Edited December 8, 2022 by Grace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Through day 10 there isn't much difference in the GEFS, so that's probably a good place to stop looking anyways 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Through day 10 there isn't much difference in the GEFS, so that's probably a good place to stop looking anyways The place to stop is wherever it still looks good. 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 8, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Through day 10 there isn't much difference in the GEFS, so that's probably a good place to stop looking anyways The pattern is a good bit more amplified so far compared to the 18z, but trough position is fairly similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 The run to run variability on the GFS is hilarious. I always feel when there is a change in pattern or push of cold air the ECM does a better job than the GFS. It seems to have less run to run differences. Plus right now after the upgrades on the GFS it seems like it’s even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Just now, SNOWBOB11 said: The run to run variability on the GFS is hilarious. I always feel when there is a change in pattern or push of cold air the ECM does a better job than the GFS. It seems to have less run to run differences. Plus right now after the upgrades on the GFS it seems like it’s even worse. Last 3 runs of Euro have been intoxicated. Not very consistent. And that was after 5 consecutive similar runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Just now, SNOWBOB11 said: The run to run variability on the GFS is hilarious. I always feel when there is a change in pattern or push of cold air the ECM does a better job than the GFS. It seems to have less run to run differences. Plus right now after the upgrades on the GFS it seems like it’s even worse. That's because the emotional capacity of the ECM stops at 240 hours as it should lol. The extra 144 on the GFS is borderline reckless 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 8, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said: The run to run variability on the GFS is hilarious. I always feel when there is a change in pattern or push of cold air the ECM does a better job than the GFS. It seems to have less run to run differences. Plus right now after the upgrades on the GFS it seems like it’s even worse. The EC is often too warm in this setup, it doesn't do well in these -EPO shallow cold outbreaks. GFS usually does better both at front timing and extremity. Yes the GFS may have more variance, but in this case the EC is consistently wrong until the actual data gets ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 (edited) Couple of things. GEFS trends of last 3 runs on Day 9 Comparison of 0z GEFS with Canadian ensemble on Day 9: Edited December 8, 2022 by Grace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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