StLweatherjunkie Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 37 minutes ago, Ingyball said: Here in the Plains that GFS run was one of the rare ones where using Kuchera will overestimate snow. Of course 10-1 will way underestimate as well. That's where the WPC curve truly shines. How do you feel about WPC's Collaborative Forecast Process for QPF/SLRs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 25 minutes ago, 1816 said: Sorry guys you must not have heard. Those temps are not possible. It does not get cold in December anymore. So disregard. Read back a few pages. December 1983 on the coldest morning averaged just +1.9°F in Oklahoma. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 22 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said: We’ve moved past that. I think… Ya think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: Secure your belongings. My eldest is graduated and even for her I had to cover her eyes during thst 18z run. Too naughty. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 8, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 8, 2022 20 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said: How do you feel about WPC's Collaborative Forecast Process for QPF/SLRs? When I get home tonight I'll send a private message. I'd like to keep those thoughts private. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 17 minutes ago, 1816 said: Ya think? I would like to think, but ya know, it all depends if we can not live and die with every model run. Easier said than done though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 24 minutes ago, 1816 said: Ya think? Only time will tell if it's true. I do believe it's going to be nasty cold. But below zero? That is unlikely right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 When's the last time we had a -nao/-epo combo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 👀 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 8, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 8, 2022 Unfortunately I do think the GFS is probably correct, might be on the cold side, but I do think this pattern has potential if the Pacific behaves. The GFS is really good at sniffing this pattern out with this particular setup. It nailed February 2021 in the Plains for example. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 hour ago, 1816 said: Sorry guys you must not have heard. Those temps are not possible. It does not get cold in December anymore. So disregard. Read back a few pages. It still has to actually happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: It still has to actually happen December 20th you. And not a day earlier. I'm running bn so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cdfarabaugh Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 That GFS was straight up snow porn.........shame on youns for posting it! 😉 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 18 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: 👀 Guy can’t take the criticism sometimes. Makes it hard to follow them on a consistent basis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 27 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: When's the last time we had a -nao/-epo combo? February 2021 or 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 24 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Just shared this, my lord! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 2 hours ago, SOMOSnow said: 18z GFS drops the 🔨 Day 6 to 16, 9 to 16 and 11 to 16 👇 That's a very cold ensemble mean for days 11-16. We better hope that's overdone or wacky. Cold signals usually get stronger as they get closer. Pretty unusual that far out. Usually weak signal because of lack of ensemble agreement that far out. That is at least indicative of strong agreement...which means nothing the last couple of weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Just now, Grace said: That's a very cold ensemble mean for days 11-16. We better hope that's overdone or wacky. Cold signals usually get stronger as they get closer. Pretty unusual that far out. Usually weak signal because of lack of ensemble agreement that far out. That is at least indicative of strong agreement...which means nothing the last couple of weeks. That is the Operational GFS, unless that you are also referring to the GEFS as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: That is the Operational GFS, unless that you are also referring to the GEFS as well. Oh...I'm about blind I think lol. That makes sense. I wasn't sure I've ever seen a ensemble mean that cold over 6 days in the LR. Kind of glad it was OP. Kind of made me a little alarmed & perplexed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: Classic JB hype-train. Probably jinx it being too bold & ready to say "we predicted it back in June in our SST analog package". 😐 He's still like a little kid though which is kind of refreshing...creepy, annoying, but refreshing. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 8, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, Grace said: Oh...I'm about blind I think lol. That makes sense. I wasn't sure I've ever seen a ensemble mean that cold over 6 days in the LR. Kind of glad it was OP. Kind of made me a little alarmed & perplexed. Still a very strong signal on the GEFS. I'm definitely concerned. 8 to 16 degrees C below normal on an ensemble is scary. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 8, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 8, 2022 There's actually pretty good agreement with the cold anomalies on all the ensembles. Now we'll watch and see how everything plays out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 My confidence is increasing 👀 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said: My confidence is increasing 👀 Oh my! I have not seen a GEFS signal this strong since February 2021! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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