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Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks


NKYSnowLover

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15 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Heights are flat as a pancake, nothing will be amped with that setup. But the cold is a win, despite an unfavorable setup for a powerful storm in that time range.

Cold/Dry > warm/wet

 

image.png.e57752e6880d58f55cafbe8d664e4e8b.png

 

That's ideal for my area. 😀

Anything too amped most often is NW of me. 

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If recent model trends are catching onto something, looks like things start to get pretty interesting after Dec. 16, leading up to Christmas weekend. Cold, active pattern advertised by the 12z GFS would lead to widespread good chances at a White Christmas. Still very much in fantasyland, but getting closer. We're due.

Edited by MesoscaleBanding
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3 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

If recent model trends are catching onto something, looks like things start to get pretty interesting after Dec. 16, leading up to Christmas weekend. Cold, active pattern advertised by the 12z GFS would lead to widespread good chances at a White Christmas. Still very much in fantasyland, but getting closer. We're due.

The GFS did that as if to say "Why not? 😄 "

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20 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

Now this would be a great Christmas gift. Snow still falling in Kansas at the end of the run. Too bad it's way out in fantasy land. 

snku_acc.us_c-46.png

However! The pattern is more similar to the Euro and CMC, so it's a start.

 

I saw the White Christmas potential, the GFS was like "Why not? 😄 "

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The Eurpoean model stole the crack GFS was smoking & is now under the influence. GFS has become more consistent yesterday & today while Euro is all over the place in the PAC yesterday & today.

Take away: Don't smoke crack!

Edited by Grace
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37 minutes ago, Grace said:

The Eurpoean model stole the crack GFS was smoking & is now under the influence. GFS has become more consistent yesterday & today while Euro is all over the place in the PAC yesterday & today.

Take away: Don't smoke crack!

Or, don't go too much fun. The snow drives me crazy!

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12z ensemble suite (GFS, Canadian and Euro) all build very substantial snowpack across Northern tier that will help cool everything going forward. And snowpack has already been exceptional for northern hemisphere. This is setting the stage for the cold being colder for the foreseeable future, and that should help things downstream in an impactful manner.

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