Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Ingyball]

Past 300 hour GFS wouldn't support a big storm for the Plains, but perhaps some smaller snow events that models don't pick up on till a couple of days out. Lots of little shortwaves moving across Central and Southern Plains

[StormfanaticInd]

The models can't handle this strong blocking. Even the storm this week is starting to trend colder

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Appears now as if everything is headed towards neutral end of the month maybe with a slight -epo bias. Anyone care to weigh in on what kind of setup a near neutral setup in most telliconnections would look like?

[so_whats_happening]

8 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Appears now as if everything is headed towards neutral end of the month maybe with a slight -epo bias. Anyone care to weigh in on what kind of setup a near neutral setup in most telliconnections would look like?

As expected the NAO looks to go neutral ish by Christmas. The AO also starts its retreat but the -EPO and potential +PNA coinciding will still allow for decent cold to spill in the US. We would see a retraction in the well below norm temps across much of Asia and Europe. As the NAO releases its grips the -EPO looks to take hold of the pattern. So maybe a storm in 3rd week of December? Still liking the potential of storm the week of the 12th-16th again thinking bowling ball type system as we still have a decent block through much of next week the problem would be the cold supplement for that system and may not offer as much of a widespread snowfall as first thought. Have to see how the system friday goes. That looks to be getting squashed a bit but will still allow a band of precip to move through and could snarl some travel plans if we are just cold enough.

Look for a break in cold/ stormy into the new year. Think it will be similar to past January thaw situations week or so of normal to above normal temps. Nothing shouting out to me as overly warm as of yet for that. May have to watch for SSW situation as we close out December still rather far out on all this considering the windshield wiper effect we have been having the last 3 or 4 days.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

This uncertainty/COD doesn't exactly help either 

[MaineJay]

The EPS trend illustrates the notion that the slower model solutions are probably the "better solutions".  I believe @Ingyball has touched on this.

[MaineJay]

29 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Appears now as if everything is headed towards neutral end of the month maybe with a slight -epo bias. Anyone care to weigh in on what kind of setup a near neutral setup in most telliconnections would look like?

Something like this.

 

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

CPC still favoring the fact despite talking about this for nearly 2 weeks now, still almost 2 weeks out. But Holy cow they used the 70% probs for precip, don't see that often 

Edited December 7, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45

[so_whats_happening]

With the MJO in null conditions you don't get much influence from that wave pattern so the atmosphere sees a signal and that could be the main driver for the time. In this case the development of a -EPO would be the driver. We have to wait and see if there is consistency that comes with this -EPO pattern. Typically with the MJO falling into null it usually takes hold of the pattern in which octant it left.

We definitely just left octant 7 type atmosphere and seem to be entering octant 8 based off the pressure patterns coming about. Again i typically add on about a week time frame (sometimes more sometimes less depending on how quickly the wave moves through) for the pattern to come about after leaving the octant. So we left 7 just after thanksgiving into the end of November hence the pattern we have had almost a week later. We briefly traversed the 8 octant into the beginning of the month before heading to null so that should start up come after this weekend. Which does seem to be about right as of now.

[MaineJay]

4 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

CPC still favoring the fact despite talking about this for nearly 2 weeks now, still almost 2 weeks out. But Holy cow they used the 70% probs for precip, don't see that often 

Up here in the "event horizon" of the CONUS, we are no strangers to seeing warmth in really strong  -NAO regimes.  I believe 2009-2010 was predominantly -NAO. One of reasons the PNA/EPO matters more from a northern New England perspective.

It was also lacking in snow in my area.

[MaineJay]

Just so hard to buy any solution, warm or cool beyond D4.

From my local WFO.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Overview...

Anomalously strong blocking across the North Atlantic and
Greenland leads to a cooler and low certainty forecast into next
week. While high pressure builds into New England for late week
and into the weekend, developing low pressure systems south of
the high`s influence track erratically in a weak steering flow
regime. Given the pattern, dry conditions are expected for late
week and into the weekend under the high`s influence, with
chances for precip increasing by the end of the weekend and
early next week.


Meteorologically speaking, the building ridge across Greenland
is very impressive, reaching height anomalies greater than 3
standard deviations over the next few days. With such an
anomalous feature, the models have been struggling to resolve
the pattern development, with an unusually high amount of
uncertainty resulting after Day 4. All the models appear to be
struggling with how to resolve shortwaves attempting to cut
through or move around the southern periphery of the ridge, and
this had led to swings in the run to run solutions trying to
resolve these features reaching the waters off the Eastern
Seaboard.

 

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Up here in the "event horizon" of the CONUS, we are no strangers to seeing warmth in really strong  -NAO regimes.  I believe 2009-2010 was predominantly -NAO. One of reasons the PNA/EPO matters more from a northern New England perspective.

It was also lacking in snow in my area.

Yep when you see a -NAO it in fact tends to have warmer temps through much of the NE and upper lakes because the airmass is moderated from the typical NW flow pattern. Warmer up that way to relative is still rather cold for many areas further South. Marine air gets involved and warms things up hence why a -NAO over here does not mean cold like it does in Europe. The deep south which usually is warm is represented cold due to the southern track of systems compared to farther north in 'normal' conditions.

[Grace]

2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Just so hard to buy any solution, warm or cool beyond D4.

From my local WFO.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Overview...

Anomalously strong blocking across the North Atlantic and
Greenland leads to a cooler and low certainty forecast into next
week. While high pressure builds into New England for late week
and into the weekend, developing low pressure systems south of
the high`s influence track erratically in a weak steering flow
regime. Given the pattern, dry conditions are expected for late
week and into the weekend under the high`s influence, with
chances for precip increasing by the end of the weekend and
early next week.


Meteorologically speaking, the building ridge across Greenland
is very impressive, reaching height anomalies greater than 3
standard deviations over the next few days. With such an
anomalous feature, the models have been struggling to resolve
the pattern development, with an unusually high amount of
uncertainty resulting after Day 4. All the models appear to be
struggling with how to resolve shortwaves attempting to cut
through or move around the southern periphery of the ridge, and
this had led to swings in the run to run solutions trying to
resolve these features reaching the waters off the Eastern
Seaboard.

 

 

Yea, i don't anyone coukd realistically haveca high confidence grip on whats coming.. Even with the improvement on GFS products, while the GEFS has a -EPO towards the end it has a neutral to slight -PNA. That's much better than the -PNA we've had but it wouldn't take much for the -EPO to not be as delivering. 

[Grace]

3 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Up here in the "event horizon" of the CONUS, we are no strangers to seeing warmth in really strong  -NAO regimes.  I believe 2009-2010 was predominantly -NAO. One of reasons the PNA/EPO matters more from a northern New England perspective.

It was also lacking in snow in my area.

 

[MaineJay]

21 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

Yea, i don't anyone coukd realistically haveca high confidence grip on whats coming.. Even with the improvement on GFS products, while the GEFS has a -EPO towards the end it has a neutral to slight -PNA. That's much better than the -PNA we've had but it wouldn't take much for the -EPO to not be as delivering. 

I've been trying think of a good analogy for the difference between trying to forecast slow, meandering, blocky flow, and fast, zonal type.

  Best I can think of is the difference between a knuckleball and a 4 seam fastball. The knuckler floats out of the hand, and is subject to the whims of subtle atmospheric conditions, fluttering erratically.  The 4 seamer on the other hand, pretty much has a predetermined path from the moment it leaves the pitcher's hand.

[MaineJay]

2 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

Looks familiar

[Grace]

36 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

I've been trying think of a good analogy for the difference between trying to forecast slow, meandering, blocky flow, and fast, zonal type.

  Best I can think of is the difference between a knuckleball and a 4 seam fastball. The knuckler floats out of the hand, and is subject to the whims of subtle atmospheric conditions, fluttering erratically.  The 4 seamer on the other hand, pretty much has a predetermined path from the moment it leaves the pitcher's hand.

 

That's a good analogy. 

[Grace]

36 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Looks familiar

 

Eerily. The temp pattern could be very similar as well...at least placement of anomalies during the blocky stretch. 

 

 

[Guest]

9 hours ago, Grace said:

 

If it's improved it's dismissed. If it's blowtorch it's gospel! 

Very true, but I think that's because blowtorches in the long run tend to verify much more often than cold. When I see good things on the horizon, I'm always just waiting for the other shoe to drop. Especially this time of year. 

[Hiramite]

If anyone was wondering the Snowfall Departure for Dec 2009...

Edited December 7, 2022 by Hiramite

[StretchCT]

Missed posting these on Monday.  Should be encouraging after the first two weeks. 

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

that 14-16th plains cutter is just hell bent on being a closed low 🙄

that's been the only reasonably consistent thing the last few days 

If it weren't closed off for so long it could have multiple lives

Edited December 7, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has a secondary push of colder air into the CONUS starting on December 15th-16th. The push reaches me on December 17th!

[Iceresistance]

@SOMOSnow

12z GFS dumps snow for ALL of Southern Missouri in the long range! 😄