MesoscaleBanding Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 I can forgive a torchy first 2-3 weeks of December if I can get a cold/wintry final 1/3 of the month with a decent shot at a white Christmas. I've got my sights set on the potential stormy pattern emerging sometime during that 3rd week of December. Has anyone started our annual 'white Christmas' thread yet? (I'm too lazy to check right now, lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 13 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: I don't know what is going on with the models! Maybe the PNA should be more watched after all Everything is favorable for a Arctic Blast, except for one thing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 37 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: The December bloodbath continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 (edited) Regardless if you take EPS or GFS it's a good look unless you're east of Appalachian chain. With that said with a mean pattern centered more for west of Appalachians UT does not mean east coast will not have a window. I think the biggest overall take away is not blowtorch but coldest centered further west simar to DEC, 2013...not in anomalies but spacial...and not cold for the same reason as then. FWIW, the BSR is actually handling this quiet well. It busted in NOV cold but handling this well...for now. Edited December 6, 2022 by Grace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 Not a bad look though still on the eps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, Grace said: Regardless if you take EPS or GFS it's a good look unless you're east of Appalachian chain. With that said with a mean pattern centered more for west of Appalachians UT does not mean east coast will not have a window. I think the biggest overall take away is not blowtorch but coldest centered further west simar to DEC, 2013...not in anomalies but spacial...and not cold for the same reason as then. FWIW, the BSR is actually handling this quiet well. It busted in NOV cold but handling this well...for now. Next week could be the turning point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 DEC 12-20 looks good on East Asia. Roll it forward 6-10 days for East U.S. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 7, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 7, 2022 If anyone was wondering what the H5 "mean flow" looks like over the CONUS, I present hour 384 on the GEFS. Doesn't get more average than that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 A part of me wonders if the models are too warm for this storm next week. That a lot of blocking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: A part of me wonders if the models are too warm for this storm next week. That a lot of blocking Blocking that cold right over into Russia 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said: The December bloodbath continues Bloodbath? Quite a few places are below normal on temps so far this month. And 18z gefs has just gotten colder... again. Will post shortly with run to run temp change, a feature I forgot about until moments ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 (edited) 20 minutes ago, 1816 said: Blocking that cold right over into Russia And Europe, they are getting horribly cold very soon! https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-pattern-december-blocking-cold-air-polar-vortex-split-united-states-europe-fa/ Edited December 7, 2022 by Iceresistance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 🚨 Best GEFS run in several days just completed. 18z GEFS temp anomalies Dec 15-Dec 22. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 I know we’ve heard this before but I do think the cold is coming. It’s going to be after mid month but it’s coming. A lot of times a colder air mass will move in with a bigger system that cuts the lakes and the cold then tracks in after in the east. I’m wondering if the system on the 14th-16th is going to be the system that ushers in the colder air as it seems all models have it cutting far NW. We will see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowgeek93 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 hour ago, SNOWBOB11 said: I know we’ve heard this before but I do think the cold is coming. It’s going to be after mid month but it’s coming. A lot of times a colder air mass will move in with a bigger system that cuts the lakes and the cold then tracks in after in the east. I’m wondering if the system on the 14th-16th is going to be the system that ushers in the colder air as it seems all models have it cutting far NW. We will see. It's like a broken record every year. Winter starts off mild then the switch flips sometime after the holidays and we're in the cold until well into Spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 12z Euro stratosphere 50mb 10mb Experts say not a true SSW yet but will allow for continued high latitude blocking. That's got to be a positive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 7, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 7, 2022 10 minutes ago, Grace said: 12z Euro stratosphere 50mb 10mb Experts say not a true SSW yet but will allow for continued high latitude blocking. That's got to be a positive. Nice yea not quite there yet but again maybe toward end of month as thought. It looks to be 100% pacific lead again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 7, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 7, 2022 Unfortunately it looks like my snowstorm will be sacrificed in order for the east coast cold signal to be correct late next week lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 46 minutes ago, Grace said: 12z Euro stratosphere 50mb 10mb Experts say not a true SSW yet but will allow for continued high latitude blocking. That's got to be a positive. 0z GFS the same. Main vortex at 10 & 50mb over CONUS & Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 7, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Grace said: 0z GFS the same. Main vortex at 10 & 50mb over CONUS & Canada. Glad I upgraded my coat this year. I'm ready for the brutal cold, well I hope I am lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 0z looking much,much better. I wonder if we'll have as many positive posts on the trend as we would negative on a warming trend? If it's improved it's dismissed. If it's blowtorch it's gospel! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 (edited) 1 minute ago, Ingyball said: Glad I upgraded my coat this year. I'm ready for the brutal cold, well I hope I am lol. I dont "think" we'll see brutal. Canada will...but I'm just glad 500mb looking much better. Edited December 7, 2022 by Grace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 7, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, Grace said: Who knows about brutal...but I'm just glad 500mb looking much better. Brutal is anything below 15 for me now. I've had to get used to the cold all over again since I spent 2.5 years in the deep south. Last year got cold but not as bad as it could have here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 0z GFS 10mb 50mb 500mb 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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