Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

IDK, at least that Late December this time around is going to counter that!

I don't know why you're so sure of that, given what's taken place over the past week. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Ask and ye shall receive. Wow...you have to go back to 2010 before you find a cold eastern US for December....not only that...to find average you basically are talking about 2017 and 2013 out of the last 11 or 12 years

Bump to next page, because this took some time 😄 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

for those that want to play around 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/us-maps/1/201012?products[]=divisionaltavgrank

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Bump to next page, because this took some time 😄 

Pretty unreal and definitely validates my angst over modern December weather. 

[1816]

18 minutes ago, Hassaywx1223 said:

Have about a week to 10 days before you can pack December in and hope for January. Once you get 2 or so degrees above average you need a slug or arctic air to even make it average. Yeah I’m sure there will be cold spots and snow in the air at some point. But we’re looking at the month as a whole and well it’ll be a bust for most Mets that said it can run below average by a degree or so 

Well I'm running 2.5 degrees below normal so far so regardless of what these terrible red maps say, I guess hope is still well enough alive that I can hang on until the cold outbreak.

Lol. December is 5 days old. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[Ohiobuckeye45]

book this link too because I'm sure we'll be referring to it almost daily here soon based on these conversations

https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?maps=ACISClimateMaps

[StretchCT]

15 day Euro ensemble mean anomaly

Second week for context

 

[Iceresistance]

26 minutes ago, 1816 said:

Well I'm running 2.5 degrees below normal so far so regardless of what these terrible red maps say, I guess hope is still well enough alive that I can hang on until the cold outbreak.

Lol. December is 5 days old. 

You need to charge your phone, I see the 10% 😛 

Edited December 6, 2022 by Iceresistance

[1816]

2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

You need to charge your phone, I see the 10% 😛 

Lol. Yeah. 

[Ingyball]

Very nearly another big snow storm on the GFS  but the trough gets cut off and just gets stuck down in southern New Mexico lol. Would still be some good snow for Oklahoma.

[Iceresistance]

16 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

Very nearly another big snow storm on the GFS  but the trough gets cut off and just gets stuck down in southern New Mexico lol. Would still be some good snow for Oklahoma.

I think the GFS was like "Wait, I don't want to repeat the crazy snowstorm from the previous run!"

[Iceresistance]

 

[Iceresistance]

Just figured out that the reason why the GFS and GEFS want a December Torch is because it wants the MJO to go into Phases 1, 2, & 3.

Edited December 6, 2022 by Iceresistance

[StormfanaticInd]

2 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Ask and ye shall receive. Wow...you have to go back to 2010 before you find a cold eastern US for December....not only that...to find average you basically are talking about 2017 and 2013 out of the last 11 or 12 years

Brutal 

[beaver56]

Just seasonal around the holidays with some mood flakes works for me.  Lord, knows it has been very tough for a long time around Christmas in my neck of the woods.

[Grace]

We all still hugging the GFS products to cancel winter? It caved. 

Day 10 trend over last four 0z & 12z runs:

 

The American model has really led to a lot of chaos on social media & this forum. 

And when a good pattern seems to be emerging take @MaineJay good advice & "temper expectations". Don't entertain visions of 1977-78, lol. A good pattern may or may not deliver the goods in your area. The devil's in the details. 

 

 

[Grace]

3 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Ask and ye shall receive. Wow...you have to go back to 2010 before you find a cold eastern US for December....not only that...to find average you basically are talking about 2017 and 2013 out of the last 11 or 12 years

 

If you go back further you'll see CONUS DEC temps vary quiet a bit from decade to decade. Some decades colder & some warmer. We're in a warmer the last 10 & account for AGW warmer on averages with that & that's what you get.

2000-2009 is cooler in DEC than 1990-99. 

I started in the 1930's. The 1960's & 1980's had the coldest DEC on average over the 90 years.

Edited December 6, 2022 by Grace

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

If you go back further you'll see CONUS DEC temps vary quiet a bit from decade to decade. Some decades colder & some warmer. We're in a warmer the last 10 & account for AGW warmer on averages with that & that's what you get.

2000-2009 is cooler in DEC than 1990-99. 

I started in the 1930's. The 1960's & 1980's had the coldest DEC on average over the 90 years.

Very interesting. So we had 5 straight decades of cold from the 40's through the 80's. And since then it's been either perfectly average or warm. Could mean we have 20 more years of December heat!

[Iceresistance]

38 minutes ago, Grace said:

We all still hugging the GFS products to cancel winter? It caved. 

Day 10 trend over last four 0z & 12z runs:

 

The American model has really led to a lot of chaos on social media & this forum. 

And when a good pattern seems to be emerging take @MaineJay good advice & "temper expectations". Don't entertain visions of 1977-78, lol. A good pattern may or may not deliver the goods in your area. The devil's in the details. 

 

 

I don't get this very well, but did the GFS cave towards the Euro and CMC.

[Grace]

3 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I don't get this very well, but did the GFS cave towards the Euro and CMC.

 

Those are model trends for the same period which is now day 10. Basically went from what looked like a harsh PAC to an improved PAC.

GFS did indeed improve the PAC immensely by DAY 10. It's not as good of a look as Euro but better nonetheless. 

[Grace]

23 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Very interesting. So we had 5 straight decades of cold from the 40's through the 80's. And since then it's been either perfectly average or warm. Could mean we have 20 more years of December heat!

 

No. The last 30 years are on average warmer decadally due to warmer base state. So the 2000-2010 period on average might have looked like the 60's or 80's in in that overall base state. The 2000-2010 had some cold DEC but not all of them. But on average the warmer was more anomalous than the cold due to AGW. Therefore, that's way the anomaly is almost average despite being a colder DEC pattern mean. 

Since 2011 we've been in not only a warmer base state but patterns on average that would produce a warmer decade anytime in history: however, the warmer is more anomalous due to the warmer base state due to AGW. 

So what I'm saying is if you get a 1980's decade average pattern you'd have some cold DEC just not as anomalous on cold due to warmer base state. Read & think carefully & I think you'll get it. A little complex but understandable. 

Edited December 6, 2022 by Grace

[SOMOSnow]

12z CMC ensemble mean 2m temps. Day 9 to 16 and day 6 to 16. 👇

[Ohiobuckeye45]

you'd expect the 6-10 day would improve over the last 5 days if the long range cold was indeed getting closer. However that is not the case...its still stuck in day 10+ lala land. That could be driven by 2 things though

• Either the cold truly is getting pushed back even further
• OR the above average temps the next 10 days has gotten "torchier"
  

Looking at day 10 independently I think the conclusion can be made by day 10 things are "improving" and its more the latter bullet

 

This is the 6-10 day from the GEFS and GEPS over the last 5 days 12z run

 

[Iceresistance]

The -AO and -NAO cannon is loaded, with a lot of gunpowder from the EPO, but there is no spark on the line because of that stubborn -PNA

When the PNA becomes closer the Neutral, the spark is lit on the line, bit if it returns back to negative, it gets poured over with cold water.

But when the PNA becomes somewhat positive for an extended period of time, the cannon fires and unleashes the cold here!